Trade between Kenya and the European Union has increased by 20% since their Economic Partnership Agreement entered into force on July 1, 2024, according to outgoing EU Ambassador to Kenya Henriette Geiger.
The agreement gives Kenyan exports permanent duty-free and quota-free access to the EU market while requiring Kenya to liberalise 82.6% of imports from the bloc gradually. More than half of those imports were already entering Kenya duty-free, while most remaining tariff reductions are phased over 15 years and a smaller portion over 25 years.
The growth comes alongside unresolved legal and regional questions. An East African regional court issued an interim injunction in November 2025 staying further implementation of the pact pending a substantive case, while Kenya said it would appeal and protect continued market access for exporters.
Key Overview
- Kenya-EU trade has increased by 20% since the EPA entered into force in July 2024.
- Kenyan goods receive duty-free and quota-free access to the EU market.
- Kenya will gradually liberalise 82.6% of EU imports by value.
- Sensitive products representing 17.4% of imports remain protected from liberalisation.
- Rwanda has expressed interest in joining but has not acceded to the Kenya-EU EPA.
- Uganda already receives duty-free and quota-free access under the EU’s Everything But Arms scheme.
Trade Growth Strengthens the Case for the EPA
The 20% increase in bilateral trade is the strongest early indication that the agreement is expanding commercial flows. According to the latest account of the pact’s performance, Geiger linked the increase to stronger value addition and more active private-sector marketing of Kenyan products in Europe.
The EU remains one of Kenya’s most important export destinations, particularly for flowers, fruit, vegetables, coffee and other agricultural goods. Kenya supplies more than 40% of flowers imported into the bloc, making continued access especially important for the country’s horticulture industry.
The EPA was signed in December 2023 and entered into force on July 1, 2024. Its central feature is asymmetric liberalisation: the EU opened its market fully to Kenyan goods from the start, while Kenya was given a long transition period to reduce tariffs on selected European imports.
According to the official agreement explanation, Kenya will liberalise 82.6% of imports from the EU by value. More than half already entered duty-free before the agreement. Most of the remaining liberalisation is scheduled within 15 years, with 2.9% extending to 25 years.
Kenya Keeps Sensitive Sectors Protected
The agreement excludes 17.4% of imports from tariff liberalisation. Protected categories include sensitive agricultural products and selected manufactured goods.
This safeguard is intended to limit pressure on sectors considered vulnerable to competition from European imports. The EPA also contains provisions covering trade and sustainable development, labour standards, climate commitments and economic cooperation.
For Kenya, the commercial objective is not only to preserve market access but to move beyond traditional exports. Officials have repeatedly highlighted opportunities in higher-value agriculture, textiles, manufacturing, digital services and green investment.
The EU and Kenya have also been working to strengthen private-sector links. Geiger said the European Business Chamber, launched in 2025, is expected to advocate for increased trade and investment between the two markets.
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Legal Challenge Creates an Unresolved Risk
The EPA’s economic gains have developed alongside a legal dispute within the East African Community.
In November 2025, the East African Court of Justice stayed further implementation of the agreement pending a ruling on a case challenging whether Kenya’s bilateral deal was consistent with regional integration rules.
Kenya subsequently said it would appeal the decision and protect continuity for exporters. At the time, the government said trade with the EU would continue while it pursued legal remedies and measures to preserve predictable market access.
The legal dispute matters because Kenya is part of the EAC customs union, where trade policy is meant to be coordinated regionally. However, the Kenya-EU agreement remains open to other EAC partner states that choose to join.
Rwanda and Uganda Face Different Trade Choices
Rwanda has expressed interest in joining the agreement but has not formally acceded to the current Kenya-EU EPA.
The distinction is important. Rwanda signed the earlier regional EAC-EU EPA framework in 2016, alongside Kenya, but that regional agreement did not enter into force because it lacked the participation required from all EAC members.
The current bilateral agreement initially applies to Kenya but is open to accession by other EAC states.
Uganda faces less immediate pressure to join because it is classified as a least-developed country. Its exports already enter the EU duty-free and quota-free under the Everything But Arms arrangement.
That gives Uganda preferential access without requiring reciprocal tariff liberalisation. Its calculation could change if it graduates from least-developed-country status, but no automatic accession to the Kenya-EU pact follows from that change.
The Next Test Is Whether Trade Can Double
The EU says the current 20% increase is only an early milestone. Geiger has said the ambition is to double bilateral trade.
Achieving that will require more than tariff preferences. Kenyan exporters still face challenges involving standards compliance, logistics, financing, product certification and the need to diversify beyond a relatively narrow group of agricultural products.
The EPA gives Kenya a more stable route into one of the world’s largest consumer markets. The next phase will determine whether businesses can use that access to expand higher-value exports while the government manages domestic competition, regional concerns and the unresolved court challenge.
Sources: The EastAfrican / European Commission / European External Action Service / East African Court of Justice / EUR-Lex
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