Africa Markets
Regional equities, currencies and macroeconomics across Sub-Saharan Africa — what they mean for portfolios.
Latest from the desk
Africa is one of the world’s last great growth stories — and one of its most misunderstood. Each week we track regional equities, macro signals and currencies into a clear-eyed view of what they mean for portfolios.
Grouped by subcategory · Updated weekly
Regional Equities
JSE, NGX, EGX, GSE, NSE and regional index performance.
Regional Equities
Nigeria leads +60.5% YTD on banking and oil & gas, Ghana up 128% YoY post-restructuring, EGX 30 at 52,861 with momentum slowing, and the JSE under pressure on geopolitical jitters.
The Dangote Refinery IPO
A comprehensive analysis of Africa's largest-ever IPO: Dangote Industries plans to list ~10% of its 650,000 bpd refinery at a $40–50bn valuation, with a primary NGX listing, secondaries on JSE/NSE/GSE/ESX/BRVM, and a unique USD-dividend structure backed by ~$6.4bn in annual export revenues.
AfCFTA Trade Integration & Cross-Listed Equities
Intra-African trade rose to US$220.3B in 2024 (+12.4%) but remains just 14.4% of formal African trade. AfCFTA is not yet a broad market re-rating catalyst — it is a corridor-by-corridor operating-leverage story that should first benefit trade-finance banks, payment rails, logistics, consumer staples and selected regional manufacturers before translating into a deeper cross-listed equity liquidity premium.
Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO opened on 14 September 2026: 4.1bn shares at ₦525 (a roughly ₦2.15tn / $1.6bn raise, minimum 10 shares / ₦5,250). The offer is historic, but a ~3.3% float, founder control, margin cyclicality and a valuation near $48–49bn mean it must be priced carefully — not treated as a safe bet.
Macroeconomics
Growth, inflation, rates and currencies across the continent.
Macroeconomics
Continental growth at 4.3%, East Africa leading at 6.4%, Nigeria’s inflation ticking up to 15.7%, Ghana stabilising at 3.2% and oil swinging from USD 110 to ~USD 95/bbl on the US-Iran peace deal.
AI Capex Cycle: Africa's Infrastructure Stress Test
The global AI build-out is no longer only a chip or cloud story — for Africa it is a hard-infrastructure cycle. With ~$725B in 2026 hyperscaler capex and global data-centre power demand heading to ~945 TWh by 2030, African data-centre economics will be set by bankable power, transmission access, fibre depth, water-light cooling, land permitting and credible offtake. Africa has 360 MW active capacity and 894 MW in the pipeline.
AfDB Updated Projections: A Small Headline Cut, a Bigger Risk Signal
The AfDB trimmed Africa’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.2% (from 4.3%) and 2027 to 4.4% (from 4.5%). The downgrade is modest in percentage points but larger in signalling value — it arrives alongside debt-service, FX, ODA and FDI pressure.
AI Capex Cycle: Africa's Infrastructure Stress Test
The global AI capex wave (~$725B in 2026 hyperscaler spend) is a power, fibre and cooling cycle before it is a software cycle. For Africa — 360 MW active data-centre capacity, 894 MW in the pipeline — power, grid access and cooling decide the winners.
Africa’s Debt Burden: Who Pays the Development Price?
Africa’s net public-debt interest averaged $70 per person in 2021–23, against $44 for health and $63 for education; 65% of Africans lived in countries where interest exceeded health or education spending in 2023. Kenya budgets KES 1.254tn of interest for FY2026/27 and Nigeria’s 2026 debt service equals 45.2% of projected revenue — but the figures signal pressure, not proof of direct diversion.
Africa Markets Investment Outlook
The flagship weekly synthesis — what to do next.
Weekly Investment Outlook
Africa’s week of divergence: West Africa equities running hot, East Africa structurally growing, Southern Africa under oil and geopolitical pressure — and what Friday’s Brent crash means for net importers.
Africa Economic Outlook
Africa in 2026 is at least four economies — frontier 5.5–7% growers, diversified 4–5% anchors, resource-dependent recoverers and fragile/debt-stressed states. The 4.3% continental average hides the dispersion; the investor who reads the divergence owns the opportunity.
Equities & Sector Rotation
Regional equity performance and sector rotation across the continent.
Private and institutional capital
Private equity, institutional flows and long-term capital allocation.
Trade & digital finance
AfCFTA, cross-border trade and the digital finance landscape.
Country Cycle Monitor
Monthly comparison of where Africa’s major economies sit in the cycle.
Sovereign Rates & FX
Sovereign borrowing costs, currencies and reserve resilience.
Banking & Domestic Credit
Bank credit growth, asset quality and financial-system health.
Commodities & Real Economy
Metals, energy and soft-commodity receipts and the real economy behind them.