Macroeconomics
Africa Markets — Week ending 23 May 2026
Continental growth at 4.3%, East Africa leading at 6.4%, Nigeria’s inflation ticking up to 15.7%, Ghana stabilising at 3.2% and oil swinging from USD 110 to ~USD 95/bbl on the US-Iran peace deal.
The Read
Continental growth at 4.3%: AfDB projects resilient expansion despite global headwinds; East Africa leads at 6.4%.
Nigeria inflation ticks up: CPI rose to 15.7% in April after months of decline; CBN held MPR at 26.5% in May.
Ghana stabilising: Inflation at 3.2%; GDP growth slowing to 4.8% from 6% in 2025 post-recovery.
Oil volatility: Brent swung from USD 110 to ~USD 95/bbl by Friday on US-Iran peace deal optimism; net importers watching closely.
Key Metrics
Africa GDP (2026F): 4.3% — AfDB forecast
East Africa: 6.4% — Fastest growing region
Fastest Grower: Ethiopia 9.8% — AfDB 2026 estimate
GDP Size vs. Growth Rate
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2026), AfDB. GDP in USD billions (nominal).
Country Macro Dashboard
| Country | GDP ($bn) | Growth | CPI | Rate | Key Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 443.6 | 1.5% | 4.0% | 6.75% | Held; oil-driven CPI spike |
| Egypt | 399.5 | 4.3% | 14.9% | 19.00% | Held; ME conflict headwind |
| Nigeria | 334.3 | 4.5% | 15.7% | 26.50% | Held May; cut 50bps in Feb |
| Kenya | 130.2 | 4.5% | 5.6% | 8.75% | Held; CPI ticking up |
| Ghana | 85.0 | 4.8% | 3.2% | 14.00% | Debt restructured; slowing |
Source: IMF WEO Apr 2026; national central banks; Oxford Economics.
Policy Rate Comparison
Source: Central banks of Nigeria, Egypt, Ghana, South Africa, Kenya. As at May 2026.
Inflation Trajectory — 12 Months
Source: National statistics offices. Monthly CPI (annual % change).
Analysis
Africa's growth story remains intact at 4.3% continental GDP expansion, but risks are tilting upward. The AfDB notes East Africa leads at 6.4% regional growth, driven by Ethiopia (9.8%), Rwanda (7.5%) and Uganda (6.4%). Ghana has brought inflation from above 50% to 3.2% and restructured its debt, though GDP growth is slowing to 4.8% in 2026 from 6% in 2025. Nigeria's disinflation broadly continues but April saw CPI tick up to 15.7% from 15.4%, prompting the CBN to hold the MPR at 26.5% at its May meeting after cutting 50bps in February.
South Africa's SARB held at 6.75% for a second straight meeting, cautious as oil-driven CPI spiked to 4.0% in April from 3.1% — the steepest fuel-price increase since the current CPI series began. Egypt faces the sharpest headwinds — GDP growth at 4.3% with inflation still elevated at 14.9% and the central bank holding rates at 19%.
The Week Ahead
South Africa: SARB Q1 Quarterly Bulletin; updated growth and inflation forecasts.
Nigeria: Watch for CBN communication on further easing timeline.
Continental: AfDB to publish updated economic projections; AfCFTA trade data update.
Disclaimer
This content is produced by Serrari Group for information and educational purposes only. It is not investment, legal or tax advice and does not consider your individual circumstances. Figures are sourced as indicated and were accurate as at the stated date; markets move and past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Always do your own research and consider professional advice before investing.