Kenya Markets
Weekly read on the NSE, KES, T-bills & bonds, MMFs and Kenyan macro signals — from the Serrari desk in Nairobi.
Latest from the desk
Weekly view from our Nairobi desk on the NSE, the Shilling, T-bills, bonds and MMFs. Built for the analyst, the SACCO treasurer and the everyday saver alike.
Grouped by subcategory · Updated weekly
Fixed Income & Banking
CBR, T-bills, T-bonds, MMFs and the banking sector.
Fixed Income & Banking
T-bill yields plateau (91-day 8.39%, 364-day 8.59%), the 10-year bond holds at 11.52%, the May bond re-opening drew healthy demand at KES 80bn, and most bank fixed-deposit rates lag T-bills.
CBK Treasury Bills Auction — 01 June 2026
Demand was weak overall at 69.3% of offer, heavily skewed by [strong 91-day demand](/analyst-desk/kenya-markets/fixed-income-and-banking). KShs 16.62bn accepted versus KShs 30.15bn in redemptions implies a net repayment of KShs 13.53bn. 84.7% of bids and accepted value sat in the 91-day paper — the market is comfortable with very short paper but reluctant to lock in longer bills.
Special Funds vs MMFs: Kenya’s Changing Investment Market
Kenya’s Special Funds grew 24.2% in Q2 2026 to KES 252.8bn (26.6% of CIS assets) while MMFs rose 4.0% to KES 459.9bn and remain the largest category at 48.5%. Two Mansa-X KES/USD products hold 72.9% of Special Funds and about half the segment sits offshore — growth, not replacement, and fund-by-fund due diligence matters more than the category label.
Retail Investment Products
MMFs, SACCOs, unit trusts and platforms for individual investors.
Retail Investment Products
Top MMFs hold double-digit yields (Nabo 12.02%, Cytonn 12.01%), market average sits at 9.10%, and CIS sector AUM is up 114.8% YoY to KES 756.2bn — a structural shift from bank deposits to market-rate products.
Kenya MMF Landscape — Mid-Year Review
Across 27 CMA-licensed KES money market funds, average gross yield is 9.11% and median 9.30%, with a wide 5.07%–12.77% spread. Nabo, Cytonn, Etica, Lofty Corban and Arvocap lead. The mid-year picture shows widening dispersion, stronger distribution competition and a clearer need to compare net yield, fees, platform access, liquidity discipline and manager quality. CIS AUM has crossed KSh600 billion.
KES Money Market Funds — Daily Desk
27 CMA-regulated KES MMFs tracked. Serrari MMF Average Index 9.11%, Leaders Index 11.44%, top yield Nabo 12.34%. CBK held at 8.75%, inflation 3.56%, 91-day T-bill ~8.39% — real returns on top funds firmly positive.
Equities & Forex
NSE indices, sector flows and the Kenya Shilling.
Equities & Forex
Safaricom rallied +8.42% to lift the NASI to 206.21 (+10.52% YTD), the NSE 20 held flat at 3,488, and the Shilling closed at 129.70 — marginally weaker but cushioned by reserves and diaspora flows.
NSE Earnings Season Opens — Q1 2026 Banks Preview
The opening read is constructive but uneven. Equity Group, KCB and Co-op Bank are carrying the profit pool; lower rates create a clear split between lenders with cheap deposit franchises and those exposed to asset-yield compression. Top 3 control 61.2% of the selected KSh 74.7B PAT pool.
Family Bank IPO Watch: Readiness, Not Yet a Priced Deal
Family Bank is an IPO-watch candidate, not a priced IPO: Q1 2026 assets of KES 230.3B, deposits of KES 168.2B and PAT of KES 1.60B, plus a public NSE-listing aspiration aired at an August 2025 CMA engagement. No prospectus, offer size or date is confirmed. Price-to-book will be the valuation anchor, and asset quality (NPLs ~KES 14B) is the main diligence question.
Quickmart Kenya IPO: Retail Growth Meets the NSE
Quickmart plans to list on the NSE Main Investment Market Segment through a sale of existing shares by sole shareholder Sokoni Retail Kenya Limited — a 2bn-share base offer (50% of the company, up to 57.5% with over-allotment). FY2025 revenue KES 50.4bn, PAT KES 1.51bn, and a targeted ~80% dividend payout — but the official offer is not yet open and price is everything.
Compliance & Strategy
Regulatory, policy and structural shifts shaping Kenya’s markets.
Market Highlights
CBR held at 8.75% after 10 consecutive cuts, April CPI ticked up to 5.60%, and the CMA pushed through major licensing reform — variable fees for fund managers and mandatory RBCA reporting.
KNBS May 2026 CPI Analysis
Headline CPI rose sharply to 6.7% YoY (up from 5.6%) but remained inside the CBK 2.5–7.5% target band. Transport inflation jumped to 16.5% YoY; core inflation stayed at 3.2%. The desk read: a transport- and food-led cost shock that narrows the room for policy easing and squeezes household purchasing power.
CBK June 2026 MPC: Hold at 8.75% as Inflation Caution Takes Over
CBK held the Central Bank Rate at 8.75% for a second straight meeting. May CPI jumped to 6.7% (near the 7.5% ceiling) even as the 2026 growth forecast was cut to 4.9% and the Stanbic PMI fell to 46.6. The desk reads this as a pause-and-protect, active hold — easing resumes only once oil pass-through fades and inflation peaks below the target ceiling.
KNBS June CPI Release: Inflation Trend Confirmation & MPC Implications
June CPI eased to 6.4% y/y from May’s 6.7% peak — the first slowdown since February. Food inflation cooled to 8.6% and monthly momentum fell to 0.3%, but transport stayed elevated at 16.1%. With the CBR at 8.75% and May PMI at 46.6, the base case is an August hold with H2 easing optionality.
Financial Scams in Kenya: How to Spot and Avoid Them
Kenya faces rising investment, banking and mobile-money fraud. Learn the warning signs, regulator checks and practical steps to protect your money safely.
Kenya Markets Investment Outlook
The flagship weekly synthesis — what to do next.
Equities & Corporate Performance
NSE-listed company earnings, sector performance and corporate results.
Kenya Equities & Corporate Performance
Earnings hold, but foreign selling and thin liquidity test a bank-led re-rating. Through 22 July the Banking Index led at +30.4% YTD; turnover fell 64.9% to KES347.3m with KCB, Safaricom and KenGen generating 62.2% of it, and foreign investors net sellers by KES147.1m.
Stronger Trading Could Not Prevent a Concentrated Market Pullback as Foreign Selling Continued
The market weakened and remained concentrated: Safaricom drove much of the index decline and trading, foreign investors were confirmed net sellers, and strong EABL and NCBA results were not broad enough to lift the large-share indices.
Macro & Policy
GDP, inflation, CBK policy and the fiscal outlook.
Rates liquidity & Government Debt
CBR, interbank liquidity, T-bills, T-bonds and public debt.
Kenya Rates, Liquidity & Government Debt
Cash rate anchored, long-end supply reprices the curve as investors adopt a barbell. CBR held at 8.75%, KESONIA at 8.7500%, and the government accepted KSh63.28bn of long bonds at yields 66–69bp above January — fiscal supply, not monetary policy, is setting the long-end premium.
Ample Cash Met Exceptional Bond Demand and Funded a Much Larger Government Borrowing Week
Banks had ample short-term cash and overnight rates stayed near the policy rate, but confirmed auction allocations implied about KSh204.6 billion of net new domestic borrowing, mostly through long infrastructure bonds whose cash settlement was still due after the cut-off.
Savings, CIS & long-term wealth
MMFs, collective investment schemes and long-term wealth building.
Banking, Credit & Corporate Debt
Bank lending, credit conditions, NPLs and the corporate-debt market.
Cross-Asset Outlook
The weekly view across cash, bills, bonds, equities and real assets.
FX & External Position
The shilling, reserves, trade, remittances and external financing.
Real Assets & Alternatives
REITs, property, infrastructure and alternative asset classes.