NSE Earnings Season Opens — Q1 2026 Banks Preview
Kenya Markets · Equities & Forex — Equity Group, KCB, Co-op Bank & majors
The opening read is constructive but uneven. Equity Group, KCB and Co-op Bank are carrying the profit pool; lower rates create a clear split between lenders with cheap deposit franchises and those exposed to asset-yield compression. Top 3 control 61.2% of the selected KSh 74.7B PAT pool.
Desk Take
The opening read is constructive but uneven. Equity Group, KCB and Co-op Bank are carrying the profit pool, while lower interest rates are creating a clear split between lenders with cheap, sticky deposit franchises and those more exposed to asset-yield compression. For NSE investors, the season is no longer just about profit growth; it is about margin durability, credit-cost discipline, regional earnings mix and dividend visibility.
Core message: a lower-rate cycle is not automatically negative for banks. It rewards lenders that can reprice deposits faster than loan yields fall, grow transactional income, and control provisions. It punishes lenders where asset yields and FX income normalise faster than funding costs and fees can adjust.
Headline KPIs
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Selected bank PAT pool | KSh 74.7B | 11 reported financial institutions |
| Equity + KCB share | 49.9% | Profit leadership remains concentrated |
| Top 3 share | 61.2% | Equity, KCB and Co-op |
| NSE turnover | KSh 890.6M | Market statistics as of 28-May-2026 |
Opening Earnings Scorecard
| Institution | Ticker | Q1 2026 PAT | YoY PAT | Asset base | Deposit base | Desk read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity Group | EQTY | KSh 19.10B | +24.0% | KSh 2.04T | KSh 1.48T | Regional scale; digital and insurance momentum |
| KCB Group | KCB | KSh 18.20B | +10.0% | KSh 2.25T | KSh 1.65T | Largest balance sheet; funding-cost relief |
| Co-op Bank | COOP | KSh 8.41B | +21.3% | KSh 884.57B | KSh 612.22B | Domestic deposit engine; efficiency gains |
| NCBA Group | NCBA | KSh 6.00B | +9.0% | KSh 741.00B | KSh 544.00B | Digital lending; wealth/insurance build-out |
| Absa Kenya | ABSA | KSh 5.31B | -13.9% | KSh 571.30B | KSh 399.10B | Margin compression; cost pressure |
| I&M Group | IMH | KSh 5.04B | +19.4% | KSh 742.51B | KSh 512.10B | Record PAT; strong NII and deposits |
| Standard Chartered | SCBK | KSh 3.58B | -26.3% | KSh 413.27B | KSh 321.15B | NII compression; leadership transition |
The table below summarises the early signal from reported Q1 2026 bank earnings. Figures are rounded and should be read as a desk snapshot rather than a valuation model.
Additional Reported Institutions
| Institution | Ticker | Q1 2026 PAT | YoY PAT | Asset base | Deposit base | Desk read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanbic Holdings | SBIC | KSh 3.52B | +5.5% | KSh 551.72B | KSh 411.00B | Core lending recovery; FX drag |
| DTB Kenya | DTK | KSh 3.48B | +7.7% | KSh 660.93B | KSh 511.93B | NII record; provision spike caps growth |
| Family Bank | FAMILY | KSh 1.60B | +52.6% | n/a | n/a | Fast growth off smaller base |
| HFCB Group | HFCK | KSh 0.48B | +45.0% | n/a | n/a | Turnaround/rebrand; strongest Q1 on record |
These reported names broaden the read across lending recovery, funding momentum, provisioning discipline and turnaround momentum.
Figure 1 — Profit-pool dominance
Top three lenders carry the profit pool; profit leadership remains concentrated.
Figure 2 — PAT by institution
Quarterly profit-after-tax across the 11 selected reporters.
Figure 3 — YoY PAT growth
Selected reporters ranked by YoY PAT growth — winners and laggards.
Institution-by-Institution Desk Preview
| Name | Desk read-through |
|---|---|
| Equity Group | Leader by quarterly PAT in the selected universe. The market focus should be on whether regional subsidiaries and insurance continue to scale without weakening asset quality. The KSh 2.04T balance sheet and 22.7M customer base reinforce the pan-African franchise case. |
| KCB Group | Largest balance sheet at roughly KSh 2.25T and a strong PAT print, but investors should watch NIM durability and asset quality. The profit story is aided by falling funding costs, while NPL improvement will be a key rerating trigger. |
| Co-op Bank | Clean domestic compounding story. Deposit momentum above KSh 600B and operating efficiency improvement make Co-op one of the season's clearest quality reads. The key question is whether it sustains growth without provisioning pressure rising. |
| NCBA Group | Solid 9% PAT growth with strong operating-income momentum and digital loan disbursements. The watch item is the 56% increase in credit-loss provisions, which suggests a prudent but more cautious credit stance. |
| I&M Group | Record first-quarter PAT and a strong NII print make I&M a clear growth contender. However, cost and provision growth need monitoring because operating leverage can reverse quickly if income growth moderates. |
| Absa Kenya | The first PAT decline since 2017 is the season's clearest warning on rate sensitivity. Lower asset yields, softer non-funded income and higher staff costs put pressure on the earnings quality narrative. |
| Standard Chartered | A defensive balance sheet with improving asset quality, but weak NII and leadership transition are near-term overhangs. The market will look for evidence that fees and wealth income can offset rate compression. |
| Stanbic / DTB / HFCB | Add breadth to the season: Stanbic shows core lending recovery but FX income normalisation; DTB shows strong NII but rising provisions; HFCB shows turnaround momentum from a smaller base. |
Figure 4 — Margin & deposit divergence
Lenders that reprice liabilities faster than loans, and that protect deposit stickiness, are best positioned for the next leg of the cycle.
Themes That Matter for the Rest of Earnings Season
- 1Margin defence — Lower rates help funding costs, but they also compress asset yields. The winner is the lender that reprices liabilities faster than loans while protecting volumes.
- 1Credit-cost discipline — Provisioning divergence is important. Strong PAT growth is less persuasive if it is accompanied by rising NPLs or unusually low provisioning.
- 1Non-funded income reset — FX trading income is normalising after the shilling volatility period. Banks need fees, cards, wealth, insurance and agency income to carry more weight.
- 1Regional and non-bank optionality — Equity, KCB and NCBA are increasingly being assessed on regional franchises and adjacent platforms, not just the Kenya lending book.
Asset-Class Read-Through
| Market segment | Likely earnings-season reaction | What to monitor next |
|---|---|---|
| Banks | Selective bid for names with durable NII, strong deposit growth and manageable NPL trends. | H1 2026 guidance, NIMs, cost of risk, NPL formation and dividend signals. |
| Non-bank blue chips | Safaricom and EABL can broaden earnings leadership if operating momentum and dividends remain supportive. | Ethiopia losses, M-Pesa growth, consumer demand, excise/tax effects. |
| Fixed income vs equities | Lower yields can push income investors back toward dividend-paying equities, but only where payout quality is defensible. | CBK rate path, T-bill yields, inflation and foreign investor activity. |
Figure 5 — Sector momentum
Banks lead the season; blue-chip names will determine whether the bid broadens beyond financials.
Figure 6 — Watchlist heat map
Heat map of the catalysts likely to move prices through the rest of the season.
Watchlist — What Will Move Prices From Here
| Trigger | Desk implication |
|---|---|
| NIM trajectory | A second quarter of margin compression would pressure valuation multiples; evidence of deposit repricing discipline would support banks. |
| Credit quality | Investors should separate earnings growth from provisioning risk. Provision spikes at some lenders show credit costs remain a live variable. |
| Deposit beta | Cheap and sticky deposits are the main defensive edge in a lower-rate cycle. Deposit mix should matter more than headline deposit growth. |
| Regional earnings | Equity and KCB need regional subsidiaries to contribute sustainably without introducing hidden asset-quality risk. |
| Dividend expectations | Lower fixed-income yields raise the appeal of reliable dividend names, but payout capacity must match earnings quality. |
| FX and fee income | The post-volatility shilling environment lowers FX trading tailwinds. Fee engines, wealth products and digital channels must compensate. |
Desk Conclusion
The earnings season opens with a constructive but selective equity signal. The banking sector is still profitable, liquid and well capitalised, but the easy part of the rate-cycle tailwind may be fading. The strongest names are those combining scale, cheap funding, diversified revenue and improving asset quality. The weaker prints are not necessarily structural failures, but they show what happens when lower asset yields, softer FX income and cost pressure hit at the same time.
Positive setup — Equity Group, KCB, Co-op Bank, I&M: earnings scale, deposit strength and growth visibility.
Neutral / selective — NCBA, Stanbic, DTB: good underlying franchises, but monitor credit costs, FX income normalisation and operating leverage.
Watch / cautious — Absa, Standard Chartered: margin and revenue pressure require clearer evidence of stabilisation before stronger conviction.
Bottom line: banks are still the earnings engine of the NSE, but this season should reward stock-picking over blanket sector exposure.
Sources & Methodology
Figures were rounded for readability. The report is a desk preview/read-through and not a valuation model. It uses publicly available company releases, market disclosures and reputable market reporting available as of 2 June 2026.
- Equity Group Q1 2026 official release
- KCB investor calendar and Q1 2026 investor presentation listing
- KCB Q1 2026 market report
- Co-op Bank Q1 2026 market report
- NCBA Group Q1 2026 official release
- Absa Kenya Q1 2026 market report
- Standard Chartered Kenya investor relations
- Standard Chartered Kenya Q1 2026 market report
- I&M Group Q1 2026 market report
- Stanbic Kenya Q1 2026 market report
- DTB Kenya Q1 2026 market report
- NSE market statistics and financial results disclosures
- CBK April 2026 monetary policy decision
- Safaricom FY26 earnings booklet
- EABL financial results page
Disclaimer
For information purposes only. Not investment, tax or legal advice.