Kenya’s diaspora remittance inflows declined by 3.03% to US$2.442 billion, equivalent to approximately KSh315.74 billion, during the first half of 2026. This was the steepest January-to-June contraction since 2009, when remittances were disrupted by the global financial crisis.
The decline was driven by an 11.61% fall in transfers from North America, Kenya’s largest remittance corridor. Stronger inflows from Europe and the rest of the world cushioned the downturn, leaving H1 2026 as the second-highest first-half remittance total on record despite the year-on-year contraction.
Key Overview
- H1 remittances declined by KSh9.87 billion from KSh325.62 billion in 2025.
- North American inflows fell by KSh21.70 billion to KSh165.26 billion.
- European remittances rose 14.27% to KSh66.51 billion.
- Transfers from the rest of the world increased 4.37% to KSh83.98 billion.
- Q1 inflows grew 3.39%, but Q2 remittances fell 9.19%.
- June inflows declined to approximately KSh48.57 billion, the lowest monthly level since June 2024.
North America Drives the First-Half Decline
The latest remittance data show that Kenya received US$2.442 billion during the six months ending June 2026, down from US$2.518 billion in the corresponding period of 2025. The KSh9.87 billion decline erased part of the strong growth recorded in recent years but did not push inflows far below their historical peak.
North America remained the largest source region, contributing approximately US$1.278 billion, or KSh165.26 billion. However, inflows from the region declined by 11.61%, removing KSh21.70 billion from the first-half total.
That regional reduction was more than twice Kenya’s overall decline because gains elsewhere partially offset it. North America’s share of total remittances consequently fell to 52.34% from 57.41% a year earlier.
The United States remained the dominant individual source country. However, country-level figures available through April showed US inflows declining 8.4% to US$813.6 million from US$888.4 million a year earlier, according to a breakdown of the corridor data.
Saudi Arabia also recorded weaker transfers, with inflows through April falling 24.8% to US$88.7 million. By contrast, earlier first-quarter figures showed increases from the United Kingdom, Australia, Germany and the United Arab Emirates, indicating that the downturn was not uniform across all diaspora markets.
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Europe and Other Markets Cushion the Slowdown
European inflows increased by 14.27% to US$514.35 million, equivalent to approximately KSh66.51 billion. The region added around KSh8.30 billion compared with the first half of 2025 and raised its share of Kenya’s total remittances to 21.06%.
Transfers from the rest of the world rose by 4.37% to US$649.53 million, or approximately KSh83.98 billion. This group, which includes major Gulf, African, Asian and Pacific corridors, contributed 26.60% of total first-half inflows.
The stronger performance outside North America points to gradual diversification in the origin of Kenya’s diaspora income. First-quarter country data showed UK remittances increasing from US$78.41 million to US$100.35 million, while Australian inflows rose from US$56.03 million to US$65.31 million, according to country-level comparisons.
Diversification is important because heavy dependence on one corridor leaves national inflows exposed to changes in employment, migration rules, transfer costs and economic conditions in that market. Nevertheless, North America still generated more than half of Kenya’s first-half remittances, meaning developments in the United States remain decisive.
Second-Quarter Weakness Reverses a Strong Start
Kenya began 2026 with positive momentum. Remittances increased by 3.39% year on year to approximately KSh164.77 billion in the first quarter, supported by stronger February and March inflows.
March receipts reached a monthly record of about US$450.3 million, equivalent to roughly KSh58.22 billion. However, transfers then declined for three consecutive months.
April remittances fell 5.94% year on year, followed by a 10.42% decline in May and an 11.17% contraction in June. As a result, second-quarter inflows dropped 9.19% to approximately KSh150.97 billion and were 8.37% lower than in the first quarter.
June receipts stood at about US$375.6 million, or KSh48.57 billion, making it the weakest month since June 2024 and 16.59% below the March peak. The accelerating quarterly decline shows that the H1 contraction was caused mainly by deterioration after March rather than consistently weak performance throughout the six-month period.
Why the Remittance Decline Matters
Remittances are a critical source of foreign currency for Kenya and support household spending on food, education, healthcare, housing and business activity. They also help strengthen the current account by providing foreign-exchange inflows without creating repayment obligations.
The Central Bank of Kenya had already reduced its 2026 remittance projection from US$5.42 billion to US$5.1 billion, citing risks from weaker Gulf inflows and slower global growth. The revised annual forecast would still represent modest growth from approximately US$5.04 billion in 2025.
Reaching that target will require a stronger second half. If the North American corridor remains weak, further growth from Europe and other markets may be needed to prevent the first-half contraction from becoming a full-year decline.
The H1 figures therefore present a mixed picture. Kenya received its second-largest first-half remittance total on record, but the sharp fall from its biggest source market exposed the risks created by corridor concentration and demonstrated how quickly external pressures can affect one of the country’s most important sources of foreign exchange.
Sources: Central Bank of Kenya / The Kenyan Wall Street / Business Daily Africa / The Star
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