Global investment tied to artificial intelligence is on course to exceed $1 trillion in 2026 as companies accelerate spending on data centres, semiconductors, computing infrastructure and other technology needed to develop and deploy increasingly powerful AI systems.
Goldman Sachs Research estimates global AI-related investment will reach approximately $1.019 trillion in 2026, of which around $581 billion will take place in the United States. The bank also estimates that cumulative global AI investment since 2022 will reach approximately $1.8 trillion by the end of 2026.
Key Overview
- Global AI investment: Approximately $1.019 trillion in 2026.
- U.S. AI investment: Around $581 billion, representing more than half of the estimated global total.
- Cumulative investment: About $1.8 trillion globally since 2022 by the end of 2026.
- U.S. AI investment/GDP: Forecast to rise from 1.8% in 2026 to 2.8% by 2028.
- Global AI investment/GDP: Forecast to increase from 0.9% in 2026 to 1.4% by 2028.
- Goldman Sachs says current indicators continue to point toward strong near-term AI capital expenditure growth.
Goldman Broadens How AI Investment Is Measured
Much of the market’s attention has traditionally centred on capital expenditure by large U.S. hyperscalers. Analyst consensus cited by Goldman Sachs puts their combined 2026 capital expenditure at around $794 billion, often rounded to approximately $800 billion.
However, Goldman argues that this figure is an incomplete measure of the AI investment boom. It excludes spending by many private companies and businesses outside the United States, while simultaneously including hyperscaler expenditures that may not be directly related to AI. Large U.S. technology companies also operate globally, meaning part of their capital expenditure occurs outside the American economy.
To develop a broader estimate, researchers incorporated spending projections from other AI-exposed public companies, major private businesses and international firms. They also adjusted spending relative to 2022 levels and sought to remove financial leases where they could create double counting.
This approach suggests the conventional hyperscaler figure understates worldwide AI investment by roughly $200 billion while overstating investment physically occurring in the U.S. by a similar amount.
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Multiple Methods Point Toward the $1 Trillion Mark
Goldman Sachs did not rely on its expanded capital-expenditure model alone. Researchers cross-checked the estimate using two alternative approaches.
One examined changes in gross-profit expectations among publicly listed companies exposed to the AI infrastructure buildout. Another used government investment statistics, international trade data and relationships between U.S. imports and AI spending to estimate activity in other economies.
Both produced estimates close to the primary model, pointing to approximately $1 trillion of global AI investment and slightly below $600 billion in U.S. investment during 2026.
The scale reflects a broader infrastructure expansion already reshaping global financing markets. Bankers have described the current environment as an AI capital expenditure super cycle, with investment spreading beyond technology companies into data centres, energy infrastructure, semiconductor manufacturing and related industries.
AI Spending Could Climb Further Through 2028
Goldman Sachs expects AI’s share of economic investment to continue increasing.
In the United States, AI-related capital expenditure is projected to rise from 1.8% of GDP in 2026 to 2.5% in 2027 and 2.8% in 2028. Globally, AI investment is projected to increase from 0.9% of GDP in 2026 to 1.3% in 2027 and 1.4% in 2028. (
Those levels would place the AI buildout within the range associated with previous waves of transformative general-purpose technologies. Goldman notes that earlier major technological investment cycles generated peak investment impulses equivalent to roughly 2%–5% of GDP.
There may also be upside to current projections. Goldman strategists have argued that 2027 hyperscaler spending forecasts could prove too conservative, although higher capital expenditure would also increase financial and valuation risks if expected AI revenues fail to develop quickly enough.
Investment Momentum Remains Strong
The central uncertainty is increasingly not whether AI investment will remain large, but how high it can rise before growth begins to moderate.
Goldman Sachs is tracking indicators including semiconductor manufacturing-equipment imports in Taiwan and South Korea, purchasing managers’ indices, memory purchasing conditions, import prices and GPU rental costs. The bank says these indicators remain near the upper end of their ranges since 2022, signalling a robust near-term spending outlook.
The emerging picture is therefore considerably broader than the spending plans of a handful of U.S. technology giants. With global AI investment crossing the trillion-dollar threshold and infrastructure requirements spreading across computing, energy and industrial supply chains, artificial intelligence is becoming one of the defining capital-investment cycles of the decade.
Sources: Goldman Sachs / Reuters / MarketWatch
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