The global Electric Vehicle Demand outlook has weakened after BloombergNEF revised its forecasts for a second consecutive year. The downgrade is largely driven by a deteriorating EV Market Outlook in the United States, where policy changes have reduced incentives for consumers and automakers. While global EV adoption continues to grow, slower growth in the US is expected to affect battery demand, vehicle production plans, and the pace of electrification across major markets.
Key Overview
- BloombergNEF has lowered global EV demand forecasts for a second year
- US policy changes are the main driver of the downgrade
- US EV sales are now projected to reach 17% of new vehicle sales by 2030
- Around 14 million EV sales are expected to be lost through 2030 versus previous forecasts
- Global battery demand projections have been cut by 3.4TWh
- China remains the world’s largest EV market despite slower growth
- Global EV sales are still expected to reach approximately 22 million units in 2025
Electric Vehicle Demand Outlook Falls as US Support Fades
BloombergNEF has downgraded its global Electric Vehicle Demand forecast for the second year in a row, citing major policy changes in the United States that are expected to slow adoption rates and weaken long-term growth prospects.
While electric vehicle sales continue to rise globally, the latest projections suggest the transition away from conventional vehicles may take longer than previously anticipated, particularly in the United States where government support for EV adoption has been significantly reduced.
The revised forecast highlights the growing influence of policy decisions on the pace of the global energy transition and the future direction of the automotive industry.
US Policy Changes Reshape EV Market Outlook
The sharpest downgrade is in the United States, where BloombergNEF now expects electric vehicles to account for just 17% of US passenger vehicle sales by 2030.
That represents a significant decline from last year’s forecast of 27% and falls well below earlier expectations that EVs could capture nearly half of the market by the end of the decade.
The weaker EV Market Outlook follows a series of policy changes that have reduced support for electric vehicle adoption.
Among the most significant developments are the expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit for EV buyers, weaker fuel-economy standards, and efforts to limit California’s ability to implement stricter vehicle emissions regulations.
BloombergNEF estimates these changes could result in approximately 14 million fewer EV sales through 2030 compared with previous forecasts.
EVs are now expected to reach just 11% of US sales by 2029, reflecting slower adoption across the market.
Impact on Automakers
The changing policy environment has already begun influencing manufacturer strategies.
According to BloombergNEF, at least 27 current and planned electric vehicle models have been reduced, delayed, or cancelled over the past year as automakers reassess demand expectations.
Major manufacturers including Stellantis, Ford, General Motors, and Honda have collectively incurred substantial EV-related losses while adjusting investment plans.
The industry had previously accelerated spending based on expectations of strong policy support and rapidly increasing consumer adoption.
With those assumptions changing, manufacturers are becoming more cautious about the pace of future electrification investments.
Context is everything. Stay ahead of shifting trends with today’s market updates, and uncover emerging opportunities using the Serrari Group Market Index and Marketplace. Then, take control of your own financial future by exploring our Money & Life Reset Transformation Blueprint ™ to build stronger habits, create better systems, and design a path toward lasting wealth.
Battery Demand Forecast Reduced
The weaker outlook for EV sales is also affecting the global Battery Demand Forecast.
BloombergNEF has reduced expected battery demand between 2025 and 2035 by approximately 3.4 terawatt-hours, equivalent to an 8% decline from previous projections.
The reduction is largely linked to lower expected vehicle sales in the United States.
As a result, battery manufacturing capacity is increasingly outpacing demand, contributing to oversupply across parts of the global market.
Reports indicate that utilization rates at some Chinese battery manufacturing facilities have fallen below 50%, reflecting softer demand growth than previously anticipated.
China Continues to Lead Global EV Sales
Despite slowing growth, China remains the dominant force in the global EV industry.
The country is expected to account for approximately 62% of all electric vehicles sold worldwide this year, maintaining its position as the largest producer and consumer of EVs.
However, growth in China is also moderating as the market matures and subsidy programs evolve.
BloombergNEF projects Chinese EV sales growth of around 10% this year, compared with 16% growth in 2025 and 39% growth in 2024.
Although expansion is slowing, China continues to provide critical support for overall Global EV Sales and battery manufacturing demand.
Global Adoption Still Growing
Despite the weaker long-term outlook, EV adoption continues to expand worldwide.
BloombergNEF expects global EV sales to reach approximately 22 million units in 2025, representing annual growth of around 25%.
Plug-in vehicles are projected to account for roughly one-quarter of all new vehicle sales globally.
These figures demonstrate that electrification remains a major trend, even as growth rates become more uneven across regions.
Outlook
The latest BloombergNEF forecast underscores how closely electric vehicle adoption remains tied to government policy. Reduced EV Policy Support in the United States has significantly altered long-term expectations, affecting everything from vehicle production plans to battery demand projections.
While global EV sales continue to rise and China remains a powerful driver of growth, the pace of electrification is becoming increasingly dependent on regional policy frameworks. As governments reassess climate, transportation, and industrial strategies, future EV adoption rates will likely be shaped as much by policy decisions as by technology improvements and consumer demand.
Q1: Why did BloombergNEF lower its electric vehicle demand forecast?
BloombergNEF reduced its forecast primarily because of policy changes in the United States, including the expiration of federal EV tax credits, weaker fuel-economy standards, and reduced regulatory support for electric vehicle adoption.
Q2: How much has the US EV outlook changed?
BloombergNEF now expects electric vehicles to account for 17% of US passenger vehicle sales by 2030, down from 27% in last year’s forecast and significantly below earlier projections that anticipated much higher adoption rates.
Q3: How will lower EV demand affect the battery industry?
The weaker EV outlook has led BloombergNEF to cut global battery demand forecasts by approximately 3.4 terawatt-hours between 2025 and 2035. Lower expected EV sales could contribute to battery oversupply and reduced factory utilization rates.
Q4: Is global EV adoption still growing despite the downgrade?
Yes. Despite weaker long-term forecasts, global EV sales are still expected to reach approximately 22 million vehicles in 2025, representing around 25% annual growth, with plug-in vehicles accounting for roughly one in four new cars sold worldwide.
Sources: Business Today, The Edge Singapore, MSN, CNBC TV18
Your financial future isn’t something you wait for—it’s something you build.
The real question is: when do you begin?
Move beyond simply staying informed.
Navigate the markets with clarity—track trends through the Serrari Group Market Index, uncover opportunities in the Serrari Marketplace, and build practical knowledge with our Curated Wealth Builder Platform.
Stay connected to what truly matters.
Get daily insights on macro trends and financial movements across Kenya, Africa, and global markets—delivered through the Serrari Newsletter.
Growth opens doors.
Advance your career through professional programs including ACCA, HESI A2, ATI TEAS 7 , HESI EXIT , NCLEX – RN and NCLEX – PN, Financial Literacy!🌟—designed to move you forward with confidence.
See where money is flowing—clearly and in real time.
Track Money Market Funds, Treasury Bills, Treasury Bonds, Green Bonds, and Fixed Deposits, alongside global and African indexes, key economic indicators, and the evolving Crypto and stablecoin landscape—all within Serrari’s Market Index.
