Serrari Group

Senegal’s dollar bonds due in 2033 have experienced a notable surge in value following President Macky Sall’s decisive move to eliminate the possibility of a controversial third-term bid by selecting a favored successor.

In a pivotal announcement made over the weekend, President Sall publicly endorsed Prime Minister Amadou Ba, a seasoned 62-year-old technocrat, as the presidential candidate for the country’s upcoming elections in February.

This endorsement has had a tangible impact on Senegal’s financial market, with bonds maturing in May 2033 witnessing a three-day consecutive rise, now trading above 83 cents on the dollar. This marks the highest point in nearly two weeks, as per data compiled by Bloomberg. Additionally, dollar bonds maturing in 2048 and euro-denominated bonds maturing in 2028 have also seen gains.

Yvonne Mhango, Sub-Saharan African Economist at Bloomberg Economics, commented on the situation, saying, “We interpret the market’s reaction to the nomination of PM Amadou Ba as favorable. In the wake of the recent coup in Gabon, where investors are uncertain about which country might be next, this news offers reassurance for Senegal. It reaffirms Macky Sall’s earlier announcement this year that he will not seek a third term.”

Macky Sall had previously kept the market on edge with his indecision regarding a potential third-term bid, which had led to deadly protests. However, he definitively ruled out this option in a national address back in July, sparking an initial rally in the nation’s bonds.

Amadou Ba’s nomination is expected to alleviate investor concerns that have persisted due to years of political uncertainty, especially as Senegal prepares to transition into an oil and gas producer. The Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project, a $4.8 billion gas development led by BP Plc and Kosmos Energy Ltd, is poised to commence production in the first quarter of next year after facing delays.

Back in June, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved $1.8 billion in loans to bolster Senegal’s economy. The IMF projects a robust 8.8% real gross domestic output for 2024, bolstered by the anticipated oil and gas production.

Senegal’s financial markets are now closely watching developments as the country ushers in this new era of political stability, which could have significant implications for its economic prospects.

Photo Source: Google

11th September, 2023

By: Delino Gayweh

Serrari Financial Analyst

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