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Kenya Fuel Prices Jump as Middle East Supply Risks Rise

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Kenya fuel prices jump as Middle East supply risks rise, highlighting petrol prices, diesel costs, oil supply disruptions, and Kenya’s energy market
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Kenya has raised the maximum retail prices of petrol, diesel and kerosene for the October 15–November 14, 2026 pricing cycle as conflict in the Middle East drives up the cost of imported fuel. Under the latest monthly pricing announcement, super petrol will cost up to KSh226.96 per litre in Nairobi, diesel KSh227.76 and kerosene KSh219.87.

The increases follow rising international petroleum costs and come despite the government’s continued use of a reduced 8% value-added tax (VAT) rate on fuel. Higher pump prices could put renewed pressure on household spending, transport operators and businesses that depend on diesel-powered distribution and equipment.

Key Overview

  • Petrol: Nairobi’s maximum price rises by KSh12.93, from KSh214.03 to KSh226.96 per litre, an increase of about 6.0%.
  • Diesel: The price climbs by KSh9.90, from KSh217.86 to KSh227.76 per litre, or about 4.5%.
  • Kerosene: The price jumps by KSh28.49, from KSh191.38 to KSh219.87 per litre, or approximately 14.9%.
  • Tax relief: The reduced 8% fuel VAT, rather than the previous 16%, has been extended through January 14, 2027.
  • Effective period: The revised price ceilings apply from October 15 to November 14, 2026, with another monthly review due thereafter.

Why Fuel Prices Are Rising in Kenya

The regulator linked the increase to higher landed costs of imported petroleum products, as instability in the Middle East disrupts supply chains and raises costs for oil buyers. Kenya relies on imports for its refined petroleum products, making domestic prices sensitive to international fuel markets, shipping and the exchange rate.

Between August and September 2026, the average landed cost of super petrol increased 11.81%, from $874.26 to $977.55 per cubic metre. Diesel rose 11.32%, from $957.05 to $1,065.38, while kerosene increased 9.41%, from $1,003.87 to $1,098.31 per cubic metre.

These import-cost increases are not identical to the percentage changes at the pump because retail pricing also reflects taxes, levies and distribution costs. The latest adjustments follow a September–October cycle in which maximum fuel prices had remained unchanged across the country.

Reduced VAT Offers Partial Relief

The government has extended the temporary reduction in fuel VAT from 16% to 8% until January 14, 2027. The newly announced pump prices already include the lower rate, so the tax reduction does not mean motorists will receive an additional 8% discount at filling stations.

The relief limits the tax component of retail prices but cannot fully offset higher imported fuel costs. Consumers therefore still face increases even with the reduced tax rate in place.

Infographic showing rising fuel prices in Kenya amid Middle East supply risks, highlighting petrol and diesel costs, crude oil supply, energy markets, and inflation

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Impact on Transport, Businesses and Households

Diesel is widely used in freight transport, agriculture, construction and backup power generation. Its higher price could increase operating expenses for businesses, potentially affecting delivery charges and the prices of transported goods. Whether these costs reach consumers will depend on how operators adjust their margins and charges.

Kerosene presents a particular household concern. Its KSh28.49-per-litre increase is the largest of the three products in both shilling and percentage terms, affecting users who depend on it for cooking or lighting. Petrol users also face higher commuting costs: purchasing 50 litres at Nairobi’s new maximum price would cost KSh646.50 more than in the previous cycle.

Regional Prices and the Next Review

The new maximum prices differ across Kenyan towns because of distribution and transport costs. In Mombasa, petrol is capped at KSh223.81, diesel at KSh224.61 and kerosene at KSh216.71 per litre. Nakuru’s corresponding prices are KSh225.73, KSh226.93 and KSh219.06.

These figures are retail price ceilings, not guaranteed prices at every station. The next pricing cycle begins on November 15, 2026; its actual price changes will depend on the subsequent review of import costs and applicable taxes.

Sources: Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority / Reuters / Pulse Kenya

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