Serrari Group

Nigeria’s official foreign exchange (FX) market is experiencing significant volatility, with turnover dropping sharply by 75.98% to a three-week low of $92.68 million on Thursday, down from $385.91 million at the close of trading on Tuesday. This marked decline, the second in recent weeks, underscores ongoing challenges in the nation’s FX market.

On June 6, 2024, the value of the naira stood at N1,476.24/$1. By Friday, it was trading within a range of N1,400/$1 to N1,500/$1, reflecting the market’s sensitivity to supply and demand dynamics.

This downturn follows the African Export-Import Bank’s (Afrexim Bank) announcement on June 6 of the disbursement of $925 million, part of a $3.3 billion crude oil-backed loan agreement with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) from the previous year. The latest disbursement brings the total paid to $3.175 billion. Afrexim Bank stated that the funds were raised from crude oil off-takers, including Oando Group and Sahara Energy.

FMDQ data from June 6 showed the naira at N1,476.24/$1, a 0.17% decrease from the previous N1,473.66/$1 on the NAFEX window. While this depreciation may seem minor, it highlights persistent pressures on the naira amid a fluctuating FX market. By Friday, the naira closed at N1,482.72/$1 in the official market, down from N1,500/$1 on Thursday, with intra-day lows of N1,400/$1, illustrating significant volatility.

Such fluctuations are common in an economy where external factors, policy announcements, and global market trends heavily influence currency stability. Experts attribute the naira’s susceptibility to shifts in global oil prices and local production issues due to Nigeria’s reliance on oil revenues.

Economic Implications

The volatility in Nigeria’s FX market has several implications for the broader economy. Import-dependent businesses face increased costs and pricing uncertainties, while the unstable currency environment may deter foreign direct investment, impacting economic growth.

Market Responses and Future Outlook

Financial analysts are closely monitoring the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) policy measures in response to current market conditions. The resumption of foreign exchange sales to Bureau De Change (BDC) operators at N1,301/$1 is one such effort to stabilize the naira.

As Nigeria navigates these turbulent times, there are calls for robust economic policies to enhance forex stability and mitigate adverse economic effects. The upcoming weeks will be crucial in determining whether the naira can stabilize or if further volatility lies ahead.

Tags: Nigeria, Forex, Naira, Market Volatility, Afrexim Bank, NNPC, Economic Policy

Photo source: Google

By: Montel Kamau

Serrari Financial Analyst

18th June, 2024

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