Fitch Ratings has increased its 2024 global GDP growth projection by 0.3 percentage points to 2.4%, reflecting a more optimistic outlook for the world economy. This revision is primarily driven by a substantial upgrade in the growth forecast for the United States, climbing from 1.2% to a robust 2.1%.
While global growth remains steady at 2.5%, supported by a recovering Eurozone spurred by rising real wages and consumption, Fitch slightly adjusted China’s growth forecast downwards to 4.5% from 4.6%.
In a notable move, Fitch also raised growth expectations for emerging markets excluding China, including India, Russia, and Brazil, now forecasted to experience a collective growth of 3.2%.
Anticipating monetary policy adjustments, Fitch foresees the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) initiating rate cuts, potentially totaling three reductions by a combined 75 basis points by year-end. However, Fitch has slightly postponed its projected timeline for these rate cuts. The anticipated first cut by the US Federal Reserve, initially scheduled for June, has been pushed back to July. Similarly, the ECB’s first cut, initially expected in April, has been rescheduled to June.
These adjustments in timing reflect Fitch’s careful analysis of evolving economic trends, indicating a prudent yet positive approach towards monetary policy adjustments.
Fitch’s revised forecasts offer a tempered but hopeful outlook for the global economy in 2024. Stay tuned to Business Today for further updates on global economic developments.
photo source: Google
By: Montel Kamau
Serrari Financial Analyst
18th March, 2024
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