COMESA Crafts Unified African Response to New U.S. Tariffs

Introduction

When U.S. President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on April 2, 2025, African exporters braced for impact. Eight member states of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (Comesa) found their goods suddenly subject to duties ranging from 10% up to 50%, even as critical minerals remained exempt. Faced with this abrupt policy shift—designed to “put America first” by addressing trade deficits and reviving domestic manufacturing—Comesa is charting a unified response, aiming not only to mitigate short-term shocks but to forge a more resilient, diversified trade strategy for the region (Reuters).

Background: Trump’s “Reciprocal Tariffs” and AGOA’s Demise

On April 2, 2025, President Trump unveiled a sweeping tariff regime targeting countries that impose barriers on U.S. goods. Under this policy:

• A 10% baseline tariff was levied on most imports.
  
• Higher rates, up to 50%, were applied to nations with larger U.S. trade surpluses— a group that included key African exporters.
  
• Selective exemptions were made for certain critical minerals deemed vital to U.S. supply chains, reflecting Washington’s strategic interests (Reuters).
  

This move effectively undercut the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)—the landmark U.S. programme that granted zero-duty access for thousands of African products since 2000. While AGOA was set to expire in September 2025, Trump’s tariffs rendered its benefits moot months in advance. Countries such as South Africa faced 25% duties on vehicles and parts, and several others confronted tariffs up to 50% on textile and agricultural exports. The sudden change sent shockwaves through hopeful industries and prompted a scramble for coordinated African pushback (Reuters).

Comesa’s “Variable Cooperative Game Strategy”

In a policy statement released in mid-May, the Comesa Secretariat proposed a “variable cooperative game strategy”. This multifaceted approach includes:

1. Strengthening intra-regional trade via the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to reduce reliance on extra-regional markets.
   
2. Pursuing alternative trade agreements with the European Union, China, Japan, India, and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.
   
3. Boosting regional infrastructure investments, especially in transport corridors and digital connectivity, to lower trade costs.
   
4. Engaging the U.S. government for a new preferential framework—citing Africa’s role in critical minerals supply chains, akin to Canada and Mexico under USMCA (Reuters).
   

Dr Chris Onyango, Comesa’s Director for Trade and Customs, urged member states to negotiate collectively rather than individually approach Washington—a strategy that could leverage the bloc’s combined export volume of copper, textiles, and agricultural produce as a bargaining chip.

Economic Impact on Member States

Although the U.S. accounts for just 3–5% of Comesa’s total exports and imports, the tariffs threaten significant supply-demand shocks:

• Kenyan textiles, once enjoying duty-free AGOA access, now face inflated U.S. prices, undermining a sector that employs over 500,000 people in Nairobi’s industrial zones.
  
• Zambian copper, a linchpin of national revenues, sees its competitiveness eroded, potentially depressing export earnings in a market already buffeted by global price volatility.
  
• Imported capital goods from the U.S.—from machinery to chemicals—are now costlier, threatening to slow industrial upgrades and agricultural mechanization across the region.
  

Moreover, higher consumer prices in the United States could dampen American demand, with spill-over effects as U.S. retailers and commodity traders tighten purchasing. According to the World Bank, global GDP could contract by 0.43% under a full-blown tariff war scenario, exacerbating headwinds for Comesa economies that lean on extra-regional trade.

Regional Responses: EAC and SADC Preparation

Comesa’s stance precedes parallel responses from sister blocs:

• The East African Community (EAC) has convened an extraordinary ministerial meeting by late May to assess tariff impacts on exports, including coffee, floriculture, and horticulture. Secretary General Veronica Nduva commented:
  
  
  “The 2025 U.S. tariff regime poses a serious challenge to our export-driven development model. Yet it compels us to bolster regional value chains—reviving local textile industries and supporting ‘mitumba’ bans to fuel intra-African demand.”.
  
  
• The Southern African Development Community (SADC) will review a detailed impact assessment in June 2025, mapping potential GDP losses and employment effects—alongside strategies for retaliatory measures and new partnership frameworks .
  

These coordinated efforts reflect a broader realization: fragmented national responses risk diluting leverage, whereas unified action under Comesa, EAC, and SADC can amplify negotiating power with external partners.

Strategic Recommendations for COMESA

Building on its policy paper, Comesa has outlined key steps for member states:

1. Leverage AfCFTA: Accelerate the roll-out of AfCFTA’s tariff reductions and rules of origin procedures to expand regional value chains—for example, sourcing Kenyan cotton for Ugandan textile mills.
   
2. Diversify export markets: Tap into emerging markets in BRICS, the Mercosur bloc, and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), where Africa’s agricultural, minerals, and renewable energy projects hold appeal.
   
3. Negotiate non-reciprocal preferentials: Push for sector-specific exemptions in U.S. talks—mirroring Canada and Mexico’s carve-outs under the USMCA, especially for critical minerals like cobalt, platinum, and rare earths.
   
4. Enhance infrastructure: Scale up investments in regional corridors—such as the Northern Corridor linking Mombasa to Kampala and Kigali—to cut logistics costs by an estimated 20% .
   
5. Promote trade finance: Expand Afreximbank lines of credit and local currency financing to support exporters facing higher input costs.
   

By operationalizing these measures, Comesa aims to turn a trade shock into a catalyst for deeper regional integration and industrial upgrading.

AGOA’s Twilight and New Trade Realities

AGOA’s sudden obsolescence has spotlighted Africa’s vulnerability to external policy shifts. While AGOA granted duty-free access for sectors like apparel, automotive components, and agro-products, its benefits were always temporary and highly politically conditional. With Trump’s tariffs effectively nullifying AGOA, African leaders face two imperatives:

• Institutionalize regional preferences through AfCFTA, reducing reliance on donor-controlled schemes.
  
• Pursue broader trade accords, such as the EU–Africa Economic Partnership Agreements (EPA), to secure more stable, rules-based access.
  

Experts argue that AfCFTA’s success could insulate African exporters from future shocks, creating a continental market of 1.3 billion people with a combined GDP of US $6.7 trillion. However, this requires rapid removal of non-tariff barriers and harmonization of customs procedures—tasks that remain works in progress.

Global Negotiations and Diplomatic Outreach

Comesa’s call for alternative trade partnerships has gained traction:

• European Union: Ongoing negotiations seek to conclude the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with East and Southern African states by late 2025—providing duty-free access to a market of over 450 million consumers.
  
• China and India: Both markets have shown appetite for African minerals and agricultural products. In March 2025, China’s Ministry of Commerce pledged to deepen trade ties under the Belt and Road Initiative, focusing on infrastructure and digital economy projects .
  
• Middle East: Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are exploring renewable energy partnerships with North African and Eastern African states—creating new outlets for solar panels, wind turbines, and green hydrogen exports.
  

Simultaneously, Comesa plans to lobby U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer for a “new trade preference” tailored to Africa’s critical minerals—arguing that a stable supply is crucial for America’s EV and semiconductor industries (Reuters).

Lessons from Other Regions

Africa can glean insights from successful regional blocs:

• Nordic Council: Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and Iceland share both tariffs and standards under the European Economic Area (EEA), enabling seamless trade and regulatory alignment.
  
• ASEAN: The Asean Free Trade Area (AFTA) cut intra-regional tariffs to under 5%, coupled with the Asean Single Window, which slashed border delays by 30%, boosting regional trade to US $2.8 trillion by 2023 .
  

Adapting these models, Comesa and its partners should accelerate digital customs platforms, mutual recognition of standards, and regional dispute-settlement mechanisms to enhance trade resilience.

Looking Ahead: A Resilient African Trade Bloc

Comesa’s proactive stance—advocating a variable cooperative game—signals a maturing African trade policy that recognizes:

• Interdependence: Member states must knit tighter ties to withstand external shocks.
  
• Diversification: Reliance on single markets or commodities invites vulnerability.
  
• Agency: Africa can negotiate from strength when presenting a united front.
  

As the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the East African Community (EAC) align their responses, Comesa’s leadership sets the stage for a coherent continental voice in global trade forums. If successfully implemented, this strategy could transform Trump’s tariffs from a debilitating blow into a catalyst for deeper integration, industrial upgrading, and sustainable growth across Eastern and Southern Africa.

Conclusion

In confronting President Trump’s April 2025 tariff onslaught, Comesa has chosen unity over fragmentation, championing collective negotiation, intra-regional cooperation, and strategic diversification. By weaving robust AfCFTA implementation with targeted bilateral deals—backed by infrastructure upgrades and policy harmonization—Eastern and Southern African states can not only weather this trade storm but emerge more integrated and resilient. The era of external trade dependence is giving way to a new paradigm: one where Africa speaks with one voice, negotiates as one bloc, and secures its own path to prosperity.

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Photo source: Google

By: Montel Kamau

Serrari Financial Analyst

20th May, 2025