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Daily Markets & Wealth Brief

16 October 2026

Asian tech collapsed, with the Kospi sinking 7.6% through circuit breakers and the Nikkei 4.9%, while US wholesale inflation of 1.3% month on month kept rate fears alive. Nairobi steadied, the NASI up 0.39% to 239.03, as EPRA lifted Nairobi diesel to KSh 227.76 a litre.

16 October 2026Francis MugoFinance Specialist and Land Economist
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Daily Markets & Wealth Brief

16 October 2026

Asian tech collapsed, with the Kospi sinking 7.6% through circuit breakers and the Nikkei 4.9%, while US wholesale inflation of 1.3% month on month kept rate fears alive. Nairobi steadied, the NASI up 0.39% to 239.03, as EPRA lifted Nairobi diesel to KSh 227.76 a litre.

By Francis MugoFinance Specialist and Land EconomistPublished
Serrari Daily Markets & Wealth Brief for 16 October 2026. Global markets: the NASDAQ falls 0.23%, the Nikkei drops 4.90% and the KOSPI sinks 7.60%; US wholesale inflation rises 1.3% in September on the month; the US 10-year yield at 5.08% and Brent at $106.08 a barrel. Africa: South Africa’s JSE Top 40 falls 1.00% to 94,628.18; Nigeria’s NGX gains 0.01% to 247,707.13; Egypt’s EGX 30 rises 1.52% to 52,273.34. Kenya snapshot: inflation 6.80%, Central Bank Rate 8.75%, GDP growth 5.30%, USD/KES 129.81. NSE and bonds: the NASI at 239.03, up 0.39%; the NSE 20 at 4,238.19, down 0.01%; the NSE 25 at 6,791.85, up 0.36%; the 10-year bond yield at 12.59%. Kenya markets: Unicharm, Toyota Tsusho and CFAO launch a KSh 2 billion venture, and Nairobi diesel rises to KSh 227.76 a litre. Real estate: the Nairobi median house sale time reaches 576 days, and satellite land growth slows with Ngong prices down 2.5%. At a glance: Asian tech slides, the NSE recovers, and local fuel costs rise.
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The Serrari Daily Markets & Wealth Brief for 16 October 2026. Every figure on the graphic is set out in full in the text below.

Global Markets

Figures as at · Closing levels for Thursday 15 October 2026, as reported in this brief

A tech rout tore through Asia, triggering circuit breakers in Seoul, while Wall Street split: money rotated into value shares and the Dow gained 533 points even as the Nasdaq extended its weekly losses. September producer prices then added to the inflation scare.

Major indices

IndexCloseChangeCatalyst
Dow Jones Industrial Average52,154.48+1.07%Up 533 points on a flight-to-safety rotation into value shares
S&P 5007,713.88−0.07%Healthcare and staples gains offset the technology rout
Nasdaq Composite26,631.54−0.23%Extended weekly losses on heavy liquidations in AI server infrastructure
Nikkei 22564,424.82−4.90%A historic points drop on a massive tech sell-off
KOSPI2,410.22−7.60%Circuit breakers triggered as tech giants collapsed more than 9%
Euro Stoxx 506,136.21−0.83%Followed Asia lower as regional tech faced heavy selling
FTSE 10010,692.60−0.07%Cushioned by energy and defensive healthcare weights

US wholesale inflation

  • Producer prices: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported September PPI up 1.3% on the month, the largest single-month rise since March 2022 and more than double the 0.6% consensus.

Forex

  • Dollar index: Eased 0.55% to 102.30 from multi-month peaks as cooling Treasury yields slowed dollar buying.
  • EUR/USD: Recovered 0.40% to 1.1165 from a 16-month low on a technical support bid.
  • GBP/USD: Up 0.38% to 1.3245, clawing back ground in the late New York session as the dollar pulled back.
  • USD/JPY: Slid 0.31% to 157.95, below 158, as the Nikkei’s 4.9% plunge sparked safe-haven yen repatriation.
  • USD/CHF: Slightly lower at 0.8310 as the franc drew defensive capital.

Global Yields

Figures as at · Yields for 15 October 2026, as reported in this brief

Bonds rallied on the tech panic as money fled equities for safety.

Benchmark yields

BenchmarkYieldChangeContext
US 10-year Treasury5.080%−0.109 ppEased from multi-decade highs on heavy safe-haven buying
US 2-year Treasury4.760%−0.031 ppRetreated, though 2026 hike odds stayed near 39%
Germany 10-year Bund2.87%−0.070 ppTracked the global bond rally as European tech sold off
UK 10-year gilt4.38%−0.070 ppPulled back with eurozone peers despite energy price concerns
Japan 10-year JGB0.96%−0.020 ppSlid amid heavy regional equity distress

Commodities

Figures as at · Closing prices for 15 October 2026, as reported in this brief

Closing prices

ContractCloseChangeDriver
Brent crude$106.08 / bblFlatHeld multi-month highs on Middle East shipping risk
WTI crude$98.05 / bbl+3.11%A new high after a steep drawdown in US inventories
Gold, December$4,141.50 / oz+0.82%Up $33.60 as cooling Treasury yields revived the bullion bid
Silver, December$56.95 / oz+1.97%Pared part of Wednesday’s deep institutional liquidation
COMEX copper$6.71 / lb+0.60%Rose as the dollar softened, despite weak factory demand
Chicago wheat$6.76 / bu+0.45%Crept up on Black Sea logistics friction

Africa

Figures as at · Closing levels for 15 October 2026, as reported in this brief

Major African indices

IndexCloseChangeDriver
South Africa — JSE Top 4094,628.18−1.00%Global AI data-centre valuation strain and medium-term budget nerves
Nigeria — NGX All-Share247,707.13+0.01%A second day of gains, cushioned by oil-hedged Oando and Aradel
Egypt — EGX 3052,273.34+1.52%EGP 7.0 billion turnover driven entirely by local net buyers

Sovereign yields

  • South Africa: The 10-year held flat at 8.91% and the 30-year at 9.24% as investors awaited next week’s medium-term budget policy statement.
  • Nigeria: The 91-day bill was stable at 15.50%, a true yield of 16.14%, and the 364-day at 15.89%, a true yield of 18.89%, after a heavily oversubscribed auction.
  • Egypt: The 10-year was unchanged at 23.34%, on a curve still inverted by 209 basis points.

Currencies

  • South African rand: Down 0.06% at R16.63, consolidating after recent declines, with crosses at R18.42 per euro and R21.84 per pound.
  • Nigerian naira: The official window held at ₦1,356.74 on strong oil buffers, with parallel rates at ₦1,410–₦1,430.
  • Egyptian pound: Flat at EGP 52.28 under strict capital controls.
  • Zimbabwe gold: Steady at ZWG 26.60, holding its peg at 0.619 ZWG per rand.

Nairobi Securities Exchange and Bonds

Figures as at · Nairobi Securities Exchange session data for 15 October 2026, as reported in this brief

Indices

  • NSE All-Share: Up 0.93 points, or 0.39%, to 239.03 after the previous day’s heavy large-cap selling.
  • NSE 20-Share: Down 0.61 points, or 0.01%, to 4,238.19 on small moves in some blue chips.
  • NSE 25-Share: Up 24.52 points, or 0.36%, to 6,791.85, led by local banks.
  • NSE 10-Share: Up 13.07 points, or 0.49%, to 2,658.13, leading the recovery.
  • Banking sector index: Up 1.48 points, or 0.53%, to 281.30 on strong domestic interest despite foreign selling.

The session

  • Volume and value: Safaricom led on volume with 6.6 million shares, while KCB Group led on value with KSh 301 million of turnover as foreign investors sold.
  • Market capitalisation: Rose KSh 15.51 billion to KSh 4,011.40 billion, recovering part of what the inflation shock had wiped off.
  • Absa index: Absa’s 2026 Africa Financial Markets Index moved Kenya up to 5th in Africa, citing new dollar-denominated assets and greater capital flexibility.
  • Gainers: Sameer Africa topped the board, followed by TPS Eastern Africa up 6.1%, Sasini and Umeme.
  • Losers: Unga Group was the top loser on input costs, with Longhorn Publishers down 8.7%, Uchumi Supermarket and Nation Media Group.

Government securities

  • 10-year benchmark: Rose 8 basis points to 12.590% as international debt repriced.
  • 15-year bond: Steady at 12.970%, supported by the CBK’s recent switch-auction reopenings.
  • Treasury bills: The 91-day held at 8.7615% in line with the Central Bank Rate, the 182-day at 8.8744% and the 364-day at 9.0352%.

Kenya Forex

Figures as at · Central Bank of Kenya official mean rates, 15 October 2026, as reported in this brief

The shilling eased slightly against a strong dollar while gaining on sterling and the euro, both of which weakened globally.

  • East African crosses: One Kenyan shilling buys 21.57 Tanzanian shillings, 28.94 Ugandan shillings, 10.63 Rwandan francs and 22.56 Burundian francs, the same matrix as the previous brief to every decimal.

Official CBK mean rates

PairMean rateMove vs KESContext
USD / KES129.81−0.02%Slipped from 129.79 on strong global dollar demand
GBP / KES171.30Shilling strongerSterling softened against the dollar
EUR / KES144.43Shilling strongerThe euro retreated broadly

Kenya Corporate News

Figures as at · As reported in this brief

Fuel prices

  • EPRA raises prices: From 15 October, EPRA raised maximum retail prices, citing import costs from the Middle East shipping crisis: super petrol up 6% and diesel up 4.5%. Nairobi diesel rose to KSh 227.76 a litre from KSh 217.86, and kerosene to KSh 219.87. The state extended the 8% VAT rate on fuel to January 2027 to soften the rise.

Industry and insurance

  • Sofy Unicharm East Africa: Unicharm Corporation, Toyota Tsusho and CFAO Kenya launched a Sh2 billion joint venture to make and distribute sanitary products locally. Investment and Trade CS Lee Kinyanjui called it a major boost to local industry.
  • Kenya Re and the IRA: Kenya Re and the Insurance Regulatory Authority are in a public dispute over a Sh3.3 billion stake in the liquidated ARM Cement. Half-year regulatory filings to June showed Kenya Re buying more shares; the reinsurer denies the trades. Filings also show insurers’ holdings in NSE-listed firms rose from Sh1.35 billion to Sh6.32 billion.

Credit and technology

  • Borrowing appetite falls: TransUnion’s Consumer Pulse Study found the share of Kenyans planning to take new credit or refinance fell to 57% from 69% a year earlier, as households put tight budgets ahead of new debt.
  • In-house AI: Analysis of 1,300 African entries to the 2026 CIO100 Awards in Nairobi found firms such as Sarova Hotels and Car & General replacing off-the-shelf software with in-house AI tools, and hiring specialist engineers to build them.

Real Estate

Figures as at · As reported in this brief

A slower market

  • 576 days to sell: Kenya Property Centre data puts the median time to complete a house sale in Nairobi at 576 days. Buyers are taking their time and favouring homes near amenities and upgraded roads such as Thika Road and the Nairobi Expressway.
  • Satellite towns soften: HassConsult data shows land in Nairobi’s outer ring rising just 1.4% over the last two quarters. Ngong fell 2.5%, and Limuru, Kiambu and Syokimau also dipped as high utility and fuel costs squeeze middle-income buyers.

Tax and compliance

  • eRITS enforcement: The Kenya Revenue Authority has moved from encouragement to strict enforcement of electronic tracking of rental property under the draft residential rental income tax regulations.
  • The 30% rate: Developers building more than 100 homes a year have lost the 15% preferential corporate tax rate and now pay the standard 30%.

Kenya Snapshot

Every figure below carries the date it describes and who published it. Where this brief did not restate a value, the figure Serrari already publishes is carried over with its own effective date — it is never re-dated to today. Most recent figure in this snapshot: .

Macro

Foreign exchange

  • USD / KES

    129.81

    As at
    Central Bank of Kenya official mean rate, as reported in this brief

  • GBP / KES

    171.30

    As at
    Central Bank of Kenya official mean rate, as reported in this brief

  • EUR / KES

    144.43

    As at
    Central Bank of Kenya official mean rate, as reported in this brief

Equities

  • NSE All-Share

    239.03

    +0.39%, up 0.93 points

    As at
    Nairobi Securities Exchange, as reported in this brief

  • NSE 20-Share

    4,238.19

    −0.01%, down 0.61 points

    As at
    Nairobi Securities Exchange, as reported in this brief

  • NSE 25-Share

    6,791.85

    +0.36%, up 24.52 points

    As at
    Nairobi Securities Exchange, as reported in this brief

  • Market capitalisation

    KSh 4.011 trillion

    Up KSh 15.51 billion on the session.

    As at
    Nairobi Securities Exchange, as reported in this brief

Rates

  • Central Bank Rate

    8.75%

    As at
    Central Bank of Kenya — Monetary Policy Committee, as published in this brief

  • Kenya 10-year bond

    12.59%

    Up 8 basis points.

    As at
    As reported in this brief

  • Kenya 15-year bond

    12.97%

    As at
    As reported in this brief

  • 91-day Treasury bill

    8.7615%

    As at
    Central Bank of Kenya auction, as reported in this brief

  • 182-day Treasury bill

    8.8744%

    As at
    Central Bank of Kenya auction, as reported in this brief

  • 364-day Treasury bill

    9.0352%

    As at
    Central Bank of Kenya auction, as reported in this brief

At a glance

  • 1EPRA raised maximum fuel prices from 15 October, with super petrol up 6% and diesel up 4.5%. Nairobi diesel is now KSh 227.76 a litre, up from KSh 217.86, and kerosene KSh 219.87. The state extended the 8% VAT rate on fuel to January 2027.
  • 2Unicharm, Toyota Tsusho and CFAO Kenya launched a Sh2 billion joint venture, Sofy Unicharm East Africa, to make and distribute sanitary products locally and secure the regional supply chain.
  • 3Selling a house in Nairobi now takes a median 576 days, according to the Kenya Property Centre. Buyers are taking their time and favouring homes near upgraded roads such as Thika Road and the Nairobi Expressway.

Sources

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