25 September 2026
Brent jumped 3.4% to $106.65 while gold fell to a weekly low and European bourses sold off into surging sovereign yields. The NSE added KES 21 billion of market cap on IPO-driven turnover.
United States
US stocks wavered and pared earlier losses as revived optimism over potential US–Iran diplomatic talks helped offset pressure from surging oil prices and a sharp bond market sell-off.
Market movements & drivers
- Index recovery: Major indexes bounced off their session lows into positive territory.
- Oil & energy: Crude prices climbed above $105 a barrel as Middle East tensions continued to restrict energy flows.
- Treasury yields: Bond yields surged to multi-year highs.
- Sector action: Meta and Eli Lilly moved higher, while tech and AI trade names faced headwinds.
Corporate, labour & policy
- Starbucks restructuring: Announced a broad plan involving another 250 North American store closures through fiscal 2026.
- Costco profits up: Reported third-quarter profits that beat consensus, aided by recent tariff refunds.
- Jobless claims drop: Weekly unemployment claims fell to a historically low 197,000, reinforcing a tight labour market.
- Stablecoin proposals: The Federal Reserve Board introduced new regulatory stablecoin guidelines designed to integrate digital assets into commercial bank infrastructure.
Europe & Asia
Across the major bourses the downturn was widespread as investors dumped equities in favour of surging sovereign yields.
Major regional indices
- Germany’s DAX: Fell 0.9%, weighed down by tech and automotive pressures.
- France’s CAC 40: Shed 1.0% during the session.
- Italy’s FTSE MIB: Finished down 0.7% to 0.8% as sovereign spreads widened.
- UK’s FTSE 100: Fluctuated but remained constrained as sterling hit a near three-month low against the dollar.
Global bond rout & yields
- Japan 10-year government bond yields hovered near their highest levels since 1996.
- Surging yields in Australia and New Zealand mirrored the broader international debt liquidation.
- Norway’s Norges Bank surprised markets with an interest rate hike; Sweden’s Riksbank and the Swiss National Bank held.
- Germany’s 10-year Bund reached 3.58%, French OATs hit 4.68% and Italian BTPs climbed to 4.52%.
Key sector drivers
- Energy overdrive: Energy was the lone standout sector, jumping 1.3%. Record EU fuel prices — diesel averaging €2.159 per litre — and gas above €80/MWh are boosting energy firms while forcing some utilities back to coal.
- Tech and semiconductor slump: STMicroelectronics (-3%) and Technoprobe (-4.5%) suffered notable pullbacks on rate fears.
- Automotive shift: Electrified vehicles claimed over half of Europe’s car market for the first time.
- Defence and aerospace: Led sectoral declines, with notable pullbacks from Saab and Hensoldt.
Commodities
Energy: volatile and highly inflated
- Crude oil: Brent jumped over 3.4% to settle near $106.65 a barrel, after cooling to $102 earlier on headlines that Iran remains open to diplomacy at the UN.
- Natural gas: US futures surged 8.8% to $3.29/MMBtu, while European gas held above €74/MWh.
- Diesel export ban fears: EU and US officials are in talks over a proposed US ban on diesel exports, which could critically affect transatlantic fuel pricing.
Precious & industrial metals: under severe pressure
- Gold: Spot gold fell over 2.4% to a weekly low of $4,256.96 per ounce as investors chose multi-decade high bond yields over gold’s safe-haven appeal.
- Silver: Slipped along with gold, trading around $64 per ounce.
- Platinum & palladium: Settled at $1,749 and $1,272 per ounce respectively on manufacturing demand concerns.
Agriculture & structural infrastructure
- Pipeline influx: Ethiopia, Djibouti and Nigeria’s Dangote Group announced a $660 million refined petroleum pipeline that will structurally alter regional energy routing across East Africa.
- Market entry expansion: India opened access for foreign investors to its physically settled non-farm commodity derivative contracts.
Africa
The continent’s business landscape is seeing megadeals, infrastructure breakthroughs and major policy transformations across its primary regional markets.
Mega infrastructure & energy deals
- $660 million Ethiopia–Djibouti fuel pipeline: Ethiopian authorities and Aliko Dangote announced a joint plan to link landlocked Ethiopia directly to Djibouti’s maritime ports.
- Nigeria unlocks the Ima gas field: TotalEnergies and AMNI signed an $800 million Final Investment Decision to unlock the dormant 53-year-old field.
- South Africa’s $8 billion refinery restarts: The state-owned Central Energy Fund outlined plans that could total over $8 billion to revive two offline refineries, including the flood-damaged SAPRIF plant in Durban and PetroSA’s Mossel Bay gas plant.
East Africa
A cross-border trade boom and major retail listings are fuelling regional growth, even as foreign capital outflows challenge local equities.
Infrastructure: the KSh 2.2 trillion Lamu refinery
- Groundbreaking countdown: Official groundbreaking for the $15.5–16 billion (KSh 2.2 trillion) East Africa Oil Refinery in Lamu takes place on Wednesday 30 September 2026.
Regional trade, forex & logistics
- EAC trade surplus bounces back: Total EAC trade jumped 37% to $52.3 billion, swinging the bloc into a $300 million surplus, driven by copper and precious mineral exports with China the dominant buyer.
- Currency outlook: Traders forecast a split horizon: the Kenya shilling is projected to hold stable against the dollar, while the Uganda shilling faces depreciation pressure.
- SGR revenue surge: Passenger and freight traffic on the Standard Gauge Railway generated KSh 11.6 billion in the first half of the year, a 14.6% increase in passenger revenue.
Kenya Corporate News
Active NSE dividend calendar
- Standard Chartered Bank Kenya: Distributed an interim payout of Sh8.50 per share on 24 September.
- Stanbic Holdings: Book closure finalised; a final distribution of Sh1.64 per share is scheduled for 5 October.
- Absa Bank Kenya: Announced a cash payout of Sh0.50 per share, with final payment slated for 15 October.
Nairobi Securities Exchange
Figures as at · Nairobi Securities Exchange index performance for 24 September 2026, as reported in this brief
Major NSE index performance (24 September 2026)
| Index | Closing value | Absolute change |
|---|---|---|
| NSE All-Share Index (NASI) | 248.46 | +1.25 |
| NSE 20-Share Index | 4,360.04 | +34.14 |
| NSE 25-Share Index | 7,050.95 | +36.22 |
| NSE 10-Share Index | 2,763.41 | +17.86 |
| NSE Banking Sector Index | 293.28 | +1.29 |
Corporate action & daily board movers
- Top gainer: Uchumi Supermarket PLC led the board with a 9.5% gain, closing at KES 1.62 per share.
- Top loser: Sanlam Allianz Holdings (Kenya) PLC fell hardest, sliding 3.3% to KES 10.40.
Key bourse performance indicators
- Market capitalisation: Rose by KES 21 billion to settle at KES 4.17 trillion.
- Equity turnover: Jumped to KES 1.182 billion, evidence of institutional activity responding to recent IPO announcements.
- Total shares traded: 24.39 million shares across 12,893 distinct equity deals.
Real Estate
Commercial & industrial segments
- Stagnant office yields: Prime office rental yields in Nairobi have flattened at 8.5%. Grade-A occupancy recovered to 84.8%, but oversupply of lower-grade commercial space continues to depress rental growth.
- Regional logistics battle: Knight Frank data shows Nairobi’s prime warehouse rental yields at 9.5%, lagging Kampala (13%) and Dar es Salaam (10%).
- Corporate liquidation: The NSE formally put its Westlands headquarters up for sale, seeking agencies to market and offload the asset.
Government & infrastructure drivers
- Affordable housing price hike: The State Department for Housing and Urban Development will review Affordable Housing Programme prices upwards on 1 October 2026. Buyers have until the end of September to secure homes at current rates.
- Title deed regularisation: A nationwide exercise is engaging landowners, counties and institutions to surrender and register title deeds allocated to the KSh 731 billion affordable housing portfolio.
- Lamu real estate boom: The 30 September groundbreaking for the KSh 2.2 trillion Lamu Oil Refinery has triggered speculative land acquisition across the coastal transit corridor.
Kenya Snapshot
Every figure below carries the date it describes and who published it. Where this brief did not restate a value, the figure Serrari already publishes is carried over with its own effective date — it is never re-dated to today. Most recent figure in this snapshot: .
Macro
Inflation
6.6%
Year-on-year headline CPI.
As at
KNBS CPI, Aug 2026 — carried over from Serrari's published macro dataGDP growth
5.3%
Real GDP, year-on-year. Not restated in this brief.
As at
KNBS quarterly GDP (owner, 2026-09-14), Q1 2026 — carried over from Serrari's published macro data
Equities
NSE All-Share (NASI)
248.46
+1.25 on the session
As at
Nairobi Securities Exchange, as reported in this briefNSE 20-Share
4,360.04
+34.14
As at
Nairobi Securities Exchange, as reported in this briefNSE Banking Sector Index
293.28
+1.29
As at
Nairobi Securities Exchange, as reported in this briefMarket capitalisation
KES 4.17tn
Up KES 21 billion on the session
As at
Nairobi Securities Exchange, as reported in this briefEquity turnover
KES 1.182bn
24.39m shares across 12,893 deals
As at
Nairobi Securities Exchange, as reported in this brief
At a glance
- 1Brent at $106.65 and a global bond rout are now the same trade — energy was the only European sector to rise.
- 2NSE market capitalisation rose KES 21 billion to KES 4.17 trillion as turnover jumped to KES 1.182 billion on IPO news.
- 3Nairobi’s prime warehouse yields (9.5%) now lag Kampala (13%) and Dar es Salaam (10%).
Sources
- Serrari Group desk compilation, 25 September 2026
- Nairobi Securities Exchange — daily index performance
- Serrari published Africa macro data