The World Bank has made significant downward revisions to China’s growth outlook for 2024, reflecting concerns raised by a series of weak economic indicators. This adjustment, from the previously projected 4.8% in April to the current 4.4%, underscores mounting apprehensions regarding China’s economic slowdown and its potential ripple effects across Asia.

China’s economy faces notable vulnerabilities, as pointed out by the World Bank. These include declining retail sales, stagnant housing prices, and a rise in household debt. Lackluster private sector investment has also contributed to the country’s economic deceleration.

These concerns come in the context of China’s ambitious target of achieving around 5% growth in 2023. However, the revised projection underscores the significant challenges the nation faces in meeting this goal, which has implications not only domestically but also for the broader Asian region.

The repercussions extend beyond China, with the World Bank also downgrading its GDP growth forecast for developing economies in East Asia and the Pacific for 2024. The new estimate stands at 4.5%, down from the prior prediction of 4.8%. This is one of the slowest growth rates for the region since the late 1960s, excluding extraordinary events like the coronavirus pandemic, the Asian financial crisis, and the global oil shocks of the 1970s.

Aaditya Mattoo, the World Bank’s Chief Economist for East Asia and the Pacific, points out that the optimism surrounding China’s post-pandemic recovery has not materialized as expected. He suggests that governments, including China’s, should initiate “deeper” service sector reforms to stimulate growth and harness the opportunities presented by the ongoing digital revolution.

The backdrop of ongoing trade tensions between China and the United States further complicates the economic landscape in East Asia. While initially, Southeast Asian countries benefited from these tensions as demand shifted their way, recent US industrial and trade policies, including the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips and Science Act, have reversed this trend.

These policies, designed to bolster US manufacturing and reduce American reliance on China, have negatively impacted Southeast Asian nations. Exports of affected products to the US have waned, and the region’s growth prospects have been hampered by rising household, corporate, and government debt.

The World Bank’s adjusted forecasts underscore that the challenges posed by US-China trade tensions extend beyond China to encompass much of East Asia. Consequently, Southeast Asian nations such as Indonesia and Vietnam are advocating for equitable treatment in trade relations, particularly in areas such as green technology subsidies and electric vehicle tax credit benefits.

As the global economic landscape continues to evolve, governments and businesses alike are closely monitoring these developments, seeking signs of resilience and recovery amidst these headwinds.

Photo source: Business Daily

By: Montel Kamau
Serrari Financial Analyst
2nd October, 2023