In response to unexpected fiscal challenges arising from lower-than-anticipated tax collections, Kenya’s National Treasury has revised its domestic borrowing target for the current financial year. This adjustment comes as the government grapples with the complexities of President William Ruto’s ambitious first full-year budget of nearly Sh3.9 trillion.
The latest figures reported in the Kenya Gazette indicate a strategic shift, with the Treasury now seeking an additional Sh56.1 billion from the domestic market. This brings the revised target to Sh471.4 billion, surpassing the initial projection of Sh415.3 billion outlined in the September Budget Review and Outlook Paper (BROP).
President Ruto’s administration faces hurdles in its plan to reduce fresh debt by Sh273.7 billion, prompting the second adjustment to the borrowing strategy this fiscal year. The initial borrowing target was scaled down from Sh587.4 billion to Sh313.7 billion in July, only to be revised upwards once again.
To offset the domestic shortfall, the government initially increased net borrowing from foreign lenders, setting an ambitious target of Sh464.2 billion—significantly higher than the original estimate of Sh131.5 billion. However, this figure was later adjusted to Sh448.7 billion in the BROP document.
The Central Bank of Kenya, acting as the government’s fiscal agent, expressed support for the reduced domestic borrowing strategy in August. CBK Governor Kamau Thugge noted, “We believe that with that reduced domestic borrowing, we will see a reduction in the pressure on interest rates.”
This strategic adjustment is not only aimed at alleviating pressures on interest rates but is also expected to enhance dollar inflows and mitigate the depreciation of the shilling due to imbalances in the supply and demand for the international reserve currency.
As Kenya navigates a dynamic fiscal landscape, this move underscores the necessity for adaptability in economic planning. Stakeholders will closely monitor the success of this revised borrowing strategy, evaluating its impact on the nation’s fiscal health in the coming months.
By: Montel Kamau
Serrari Financial Analyst
19th December, 2023
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