Serrari Group

Private payrolls in the United States witnessed a moderate increase of 103,000 workers in November, according to a report by ADP. The figure, falling slightly below the revised October count of 106,000, failed to meet the Dow Jones estimate of 128,000.

Sector-Specific Insights:
While the leisure and hospitality sector, a significant job creator since the pandemic’s onset, unexpectedly shed 7,000 jobs in November, trade, transportation, and utilities saw a notable increase of 55,000 positions. Additionally, education and health services added 44,000 jobs, while other services contributed 15,000.

Wage Dynamics:
Accompanying the subdued job growth was a 5.6% increase in annual pay – the smallest gain since September 2021, according to ADP. Wage growth for job-changers, at 8.3%, marked the lowest premium for switching positions in the three years ADP has been tracking the data.

Industry Impact:
Services-related industries were the sole contributors to job gains, contrasting with goods producers, who saw a net loss of 14,000 positions. This included declines of 15,000 jobs in manufacturing, despite the settlement of United Auto Workers strikes, and 4,000 jobs in construction. Notably, recent layoffs in Silicon Valley and on Wall Street did not manifest in the data, as both sectors posted gains.

Economic Outlook:
Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, emphasized, “Restaurants and hotels were the biggest job creators during the post-pandemic recovery. But that boost is behind us, and the return to trend in leisure and hospitality suggests the economy as a whole will see more moderate hiring and wage growth in 2024.”

Job Creation by Business Size:
Companies with 50 to 499 employees led job creation, contributing 68,000 positions, while small businesses made a more modest addition of 6,000.

Upcoming Reports:
The ADP report precedes the widely watched nonfarm payrolls count from the Labor Department, scheduled for release in two days. In October, private payroll numbers from both reports closely aligned, with the Labor Department reporting a growth of 99,000, just 7,000 below the revised ADP tally.

Labor Market Trends:
A potential sign of a loosening labor market emerged on Tuesday when the Labor Department reported that job openings declined to 8.73 million in October, marking the lowest level since March 2021.

In summary, November’s private payroll growth, while below expectations, offers nuanced insights into sector-specific shifts and wage dynamics, setting the stage for the upcoming Labor Department report and providing a snapshot of the evolving economic landscape.
By: Montel Kamau
Serrari Financial Analyst
6th December, 2023

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