Global Energy Shock Risk: Qatar Warns Iran War Could Halt Gulf Oil and Gas Exports Within Weeks

The escalating conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel is raising serious concerns about the stability of global energy supplies. Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi has warned that energy exports from the Gulf region could come to a halt within weeks if the war continues to intensify.

Speaking in an interview with the Financial Times, al-Kaabi cautioned that the consequences would extend far beyond the Middle East. If the conflict persists for several weeks, he said, global economic growth could be affected, energy prices would surge, and supply chains around the world could face significant disruptions.

“Everybody’s energy price is going to go higher. There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply,” al-Kaabi said.

His remarks highlight how closely global economic stability remains tied to energy flows from the Gulf, one of the world’s most important oil and gas exporting regions.

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Gulf Energy Exports Could Halt “Within Weeks”

According to al-Kaabi, energy exporters across the Gulf may soon be forced to declare force majeure if hostilities continue to escalate.

Force majeure is a contractual provision that allows companies to suspend deliveries when extraordinary events prevent them from fulfilling obligations. In the context of the current conflict, it could mean that oil and gas shipments from the Gulf are temporarily halted.

“Everybody that has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days if this continues,” he said. “All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call force majeure.”

Such a scenario would send shockwaves through global energy markets, forcing importing nations to scramble for alternative supplies.

Qatar Halts LNG Production

The impact of the conflict is already becoming visible in the energy sector.

Qatar recently halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production after Iran launched missiles and drones at the country and other Gulf states in retaliation for attacks by the United States and Israel.

The halt is significant because Qatar is a critical supplier to global gas markets. The country produces around 20 percent of the world’s LNG, making it a key stabilizing force for both Asian and European energy demand.

Even a short interruption in Qatar’s LNG output can tighten global gas supplies and drive prices higher. According to al-Kaabi, returning to normal operations could take weeks or even months, even if the conflict ends immediately.

Strait of Hormuz Becomes Strategic Flashpoint

Much of the concern surrounding the crisis centers on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but crucial shipping route connecting Gulf energy producers with global markets.

Approximately 20 percent of the world’s daily oil supply, or around 20 million barrels per day, normally passes through this waterway.

However, the ongoing conflict has significantly disrupted tanker traffic in the region. Hostilities that began with strikes on Iran on February 28 have led to security threats that are effectively limiting energy shipments through the strait.

If ships cannot safely pass through Hormuz, Gulf producers may have no viable route to export oil and gas to international buyers.

Oil Prices Surge Amid Supply Fears

Energy markets have already begun reacting to the growing uncertainty.

Oil prices rose sharply as traders responded to the possibility of supply disruptions. Brent crude increased by about 2.77 percent to $87.78 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed by more than 4 percent to $84.36.

Al-Kaabi warned that prices could rise even further if shipping disruptions continue. According to the minister, crude oil could reach $150 per barrel within two to three weeks if tankers are unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Such a price surge would represent a major shock to global markets, potentially fueling inflation and slowing economic growth across many countries.

Industrial Supply Chains Could Be Disrupted

Energy disruptions rarely remain confined to fuel markets alone. Higher oil and gas prices quickly ripple across the wider economy.

Industries that depend heavily on energy—including manufacturing, shipping, aviation, and chemicals—would face rising costs and possible shortages.

Al-Kaabi warned that prolonged disruptions could trigger product shortages as factories struggle to maintain operations.

This could lead to a cascading effect across supply chains, where manufacturing slowdowns in one sector affect production in others.

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Experts Warn of Long-Term Energy Impacts

Energy analysts say the consequences of the conflict could extend beyond immediate price spikes.

Thijs Van de Graaf, an energy fellow at the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics, noted that many Gulf energy producers depend almost entirely on shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

If the route remains unsafe, producers may be forced to shut down output.

“All of the producers in the Gulf who rely on that export route will have to shut in production, like Iraq has already done for two or three major oil fields,” Van de Graaf said.

Restarting oil production is not always straightforward.

“You do not turn on and off an oil well like flipping the switch of a light,” he added. “This is bad news and the clock is ticking for many producers in the region.”

Governments Seek Ways to Stabilize Markets

As the conflict threatens energy markets, governments are exploring ways to stabilize supply and prevent price spikes.

The US Treasury Department has indicated it may introduce measures to address rising energy prices linked to the conflict, including potential actions in the oil futures market.

Washington has also granted temporary waivers allowing some companies to purchase sanctioned Russian oil stored on tankers, in an effort to ease supply constraints affecting Asian refineries.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the move as a short-term step designed to maintain oil flows without providing significant financial benefits to Russia.

However, analysts warn that financial interventions can only provide temporary relief if physical energy supplies remain disrupted.

Saudi Arabia Adjusts to Market Turmoil

Saudi Arabia, the region’s largest oil producer, has also adjusted pricing to reflect the rising geopolitical risk and growing uncertainty in global energy markets. The kingdom is closely monitoring developments as tensions in the Middle East continue to affect investor sentiment and energy trade.

Saudi Aramco increased premiums for several crude grades for April deliveries, signaling tightening supply conditions and heightened uncertainty in global oil markets. The move reflects how geopolitical tensions are increasingly being priced into global oil benchmarks.

Experts say Saudi Arabia’s ability to route oil exports through pipelines leading to the Red Sea gives the country a logistical advantage compared with other Gulf producers. This alternative route helps the country maintain some export capacity even when disruptions affect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Nevertheless, the broader regional disruption continues to create significant uncertainty for global energy flows, with markets closely watching how the conflict may affect supply routes and production in the coming weeks.

Aviation Sector Also Faces Disruption

The impact of the conflict is also being felt beyond the energy sector, with the aviation industry facing significant operational challenges. Airspace closures across several parts of the Middle East have disrupted airline operations, forcing carriers to cancel flights, reroute aircraft and adjust schedules in response to the evolving security situation.

Qatar Airways has temporarily suspended scheduled operations due to the closure of Qatari airspace, while other regional airlines have introduced limited flight schedules as they assess safety conditions. Several carriers are also closely monitoring developments before gradually restoring normal operations.

Airlines across the region are now navigating one of the most severe disruptions since the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting how geopolitical tensions can quickly affect global transportation networks and passenger travel.

War Shows No Sign of Ending

Despite growing international concern, the conflict continues to intensify.

US officials have warned of further military action against Iran, while Iranian forces have continued launching strikes across the region.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country remains committed to peace but will defend its sovereignty.

“Any mediation efforts should address those who underestimated the Iranian people and ignited this conflict,” he said, referring to the United States and Israel.

With diplomatic solutions still uncertain, fears of further escalation remain high.

Outlook:

For now, global energy markets remain on edge as the conflict continues to unfold across the Middle East. Investors, governments and energy companies are closely monitoring developments, aware that the situation could escalate further if tensions persist.

If the war continues for several weeks, the warnings from Qatar’s energy minister suggest that Gulf energy exports could face severe disruption. Such an outcome would likely push oil and gas prices sharply higher, place additional strain on global supply chains and increase pressure on economies already dealing with inflation and slowing growth.

Given the Gulf’s central role in global energy supply, any prolonged disruption in the region would have far-reaching consequences for industries, governments and consumers across the world. The coming weeks will therefore be critical in determining whether the crisis remains contained—or evolves into one of the most significant global energy shocks in recent years.

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By: Rosemary Wambui

10th March 2026