From the Gulf to the Sahel: How the Iran-Israel War Is Threatening West Africa’s Fragile Economies

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has raised urgent concerns over the escalating military conflict in the Gulf region, cautioning that a prolonged war could trigger severe economic and security shockwaves far beyond the Middle East — with West Africa among the regions hardest exposed to the fallout.

In a statement issued under the chairmanship of Julius Maada Bio, President of Sierra Leone and current head of the ECOWAS Authority of Heads of State and Government, the regional bloc aligned itself with the position earlier expressed by the African Union Commission. The AU Commission Chairperson, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, had already described the US-Israeli military strikes on Iran as “a serious intensification of hostilities in the Middle East,” warning of far-reaching consequences for energy markets, food security and economic resilience — “particularly in Africa, where conflict and economic pressures remain acute.”

The ECOWAS statement comes as global energy markets reel from the impact of joint US-Israeli airstrikes launched on Saturday, 28 February 2026, targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites in what US President Donald Trump described as a large-scale operation. Iran retaliated swiftly, firing missiles and drones at US military installations across multiple Gulf states, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE. According to Iran’s Fars news agency, the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama, Bahrain, was among the sites targeted — a development that has dramatically raised the stakes for the entire region and, by extension, for Africa.

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A Bloc United in Alarm

ECOWAS’ swift alignment with the African Union reflects a broader continental anxiety about the cumulative impact of distant geopolitical conflicts on Africa’s already strained economies. The AU Commission had urged “restraint, urgent de-escalation, and sustained dialogue,” stressing that all parties must comply with international law and the United Nations Charter to safeguard global peace. ECOWAS echoed this call explicitly, demanding that parties protect civilian lives and critical infrastructure at all times.

The bloc also called for renewed diplomatic engagement within established international and regional frameworks, arguing that dialogue remains the only viable path to de-escalation. In keeping with West Africa’s historical commitment to multilateralism, ECOWAS reaffirmed its support for peaceful conflict resolution, noting that “collaborative efforts” are essential to ensuring lasting peace in the Gulf region and beyond.

Algeria — Africa’s third-largest economy and a major energy exporter — separately voiced its own concern, expressing regret that US-Iran negotiations mediated by Oman had failed to achieve a peaceful conclusion, and calling on all parties to exercise restraint to spare the Gulf from “additional insecurity and instability.”

The Energy Equation: Why West Africa Cannot Afford a Prolonged Conflict

The Gulf region is not merely a distant flashpoint for West Africa — it is an economic lifeline. The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime corridor connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, carries approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day — roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Iran has hinted at closing the strait in retaliation for the strikes, with Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) radio transmissions reportedly already warning ships that passage is not permitted, though a formal closure has not yet been declared.

Even without a physical blockade, Brent crude prices jumped approximately 10% to around $80 per barrel over the counter on Sunday — after closing at a seven-month high of $73 per barrel on Friday. Barclays analysts warned that Brent could hit $100 per barrel as markets confront the threat of a sustained supply disruption. News Ghana reported that Ghana’s fuel prices are already under pressure as a direct consequence of the crisis, with an “Oil Shock Threatens Ghana’s Fuel Price Relief” headline circulating in the country’s media landscape.

For West African economies — many of which are net importers of refined petroleum products despite being crude producers — any sustained rise in global oil prices translates almost immediately into domestic pain. According to the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), disruption of the Strait of Hormuz would send energy prices soaring across African markets, causing “imported inflation” that would raise transport, food and energy costs, intensify cost-of-living crises and complicate monetary policy at exactly the moment when central banks were preparing to cut rates to spur growth.

In Nigeria — ECOWAS’ largest member economy and Africa’s biggest crude producer — the paradox is particularly acute. Nigeria produces over 1.5 million barrels per day of crude oil, yet still relies heavily on imported refined fuel. Industry sources told Punch Nigeria that more than 60% of feedstock for the Dangote Petroleum Refinery — the continent’s largest refinery — is sourced abroad, meaning Nigerian pump prices remain exposed to global crude price swings. Analysts warned that if crude prices rise above $90 per barrel, Dangote will be forced to revise the price of petrol and diesel in the country, with cascading effects on household budgets and businesses. Petrol currently sells between N824 and N880 per litre across major Nigerian cities, and any upward adjustment would deepen an already difficult cost-of-living environment.

Food Security on the Line

Beyond energy, the Gulf conflict poses a direct threat to food security across West Africa. The region’s nations rely heavily on global supply chains for critical agricultural imports — wheat, rice, fertilisers and other farming inputs — many of which are priced in dollars and shipped via routes sensitive to Middle Eastern disruptions. Analysts at Trendtype Africa note that approximately 80% of the food consumed in Sub-Saharan Africa is imported from outside the continent, leaving the region acutely exposed to any breakdown in international shipping or commodity supply chains.

The concern is not merely theoretical. Previous international crises have already demonstrated how quickly distant conflicts can drive up food prices in African cities. The Russia-Ukraine war of 2022 disrupted global wheat and fertiliser supplies, triggering sharp price increases across Africa and contributing to a broader cost-of-living crisis that many African central banks have only recently brought under control. The IMF had projected significant disinflation across the continent in 2026 — progress that a sustained oil shock could rapidly undo.

As ECOWAS warned in its statement, the Gulf crisis risks “compounding supply chain fragilities that have persisted since the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.” The region’s food-import-dependent nations are particularly vulnerable to what analysts describe as a “second wave” of commodity inflation arriving before the continent has fully recovered from the first.

Iran also wields a second lever that could hit African supply chains: its close ties with the Houthi movement in Yemen, which controls access to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait connecting the Arabian Sea to the Red Sea and, by extension, the Suez Canal. Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping reduced traffic through that corridor from 72–75 ships per day before November 2023 to just 20–23 ships per day at the lowest point in August 2024. New Iranian-directed attacks could revive that blockade, forcing ships to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope — sharply raising freight rates and intensifying import inflation for North and West African economies most reliant on the Suez Canal route.

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The Fiscal Squeeze: Debt, Currency and Diminished Buffers

The Gulf crisis arrives at one of the most financially vulnerable moments for many West African governments. Countries across the region are grappling with elevated debt servicing burdens, weakened currencies and limited fiscal space — leaving them poorly positioned to absorb an external commodity shock.

The ISS warned that depreciation-driven debt deterioration could complicate ongoing debt restructuring processes in Ghana, Zambia and Ethiopia, while countries like Kenya and Nigeria — where debt servicing already consumes more than 30% of government revenues — would face even tighter fiscal constraints if oil import costs surge simultaneously. For governments that have recently removed fuel subsidies as part of fiscal consolidation efforts, the political calculus of allowing pump prices to rise freely becomes increasingly difficult.

In 2022, rising fuel costs played a major role in depleting foreign currency reserves in Ghana and Kenya, triggering severe foreign exchange shortages that required emergency IMF interventions. Analysts at Trendtype warn that a comparable dynamic could now affect Tanzania, Mozambique, Zambia, Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire if the current oil price surge is sustained. Governments may be forced to introduce import controls or currency protections — measures that risk reducing private sector access to essential inputs and slowing economic activity.

The allAfrica commentary platform captured the predicament plainly: “Most African countries are net importers of refined fuel. When international oil prices rise, the impact is immediate: higher landing costs, pressure on exchange rates, and increased pump prices. Transport becomes more expensive. Food distribution costs climb. Electricity generation in diesel-dependent economies grows costlier. Inflation, which many African central banks have worked hard to tame, threatens to re-ignite.”

A Silver Lining — But Insufficient to Offset the Damage

The Gulf crisis does offer a narrow upside for some West African economies. Countries that are net crude oil exporters — notably Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Libya — stand to benefit from higher global oil revenues, at least in the short term. The ISS noted that rising gold prices, which typically accompany geopolitical uncertainty, could also boost revenues for Ghana and South Africa’s mining sectors.

The Atlantic Council analysis of the crisis also noted that regional infrastructure remains largely intact at this early stage, and that oil market fundamentals ahead of the conflict had pointed to supply outpacing demand in 2026 — a factor that could limit the duration and severity of any price spike if the conflict does not escalate further. Major producers like Saudi Arabia routinely preposition weeks of oil inventory around the world to cushion against supply disruptions.

However, analysts broadly agree that these benefits are unlikely to offset the broader economic harm for the region as a whole. Nigeria’s energy experts pointed out that even as a crude producer, the country cannot fully insulate itself from global price volatility so long as it continues to import a significant share of its refined fuel. The ISS analysis concluded: “These gains probably wouldn’t offset the broader economic harm of disrupted supply chains, slower global growth and weaker demand for non-commodity African exports.”

Security Implications: Closer to Home Than They Appear

ECOWAS leaders are also attentive to the security dimensions of the crisis. The ISS flagged concerns that Shiite groups in Nigeria — some of whom are ideologically aligned with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard — could carry out attacks in solidarity with Tehran, particularly if the conflict deepens. In a region already grappling with Sahelian insurgencies, the risk of religiously inflamed domestic tensions adds another layer of complexity for governments already stretched by security expenditures.

More broadly, there are concerns that African governments may face increased pressure to take sides diplomatically — between Washington and Tehran, or between the US and its geopolitical rivals Russia and China — with aid or sanctions threatened as the price of perceived non-compliance. Countries with large Muslim populations and historically non-aligned foreign policies may find this pressure particularly acute.

ECOWAS has historically championed West Africa’s commitment to peaceful multilateralism, and analysts expect the Gulf crisis to feature prominently at the bloc’s next summit if hostilities persist. According to News Ghana, the bloc has not yet announced any emergency economic measures at the regional level, but analysts expect it to come under growing pressure to do so if energy prices continue rising.

The Bigger Picture: Diplomacy as Africa’s Best Shield

ECOWAS has made clear where it stands: dialogue and de-escalation, not further military action, serve West Africa’s interests. This position aligns with a broader African consensus. The AU Commission’s call for all parties to honour “ongoing international mediation efforts facilitated by the Sultanate of Oman” signals that African institutions are actively rooting for a diplomatic off-ramp, even as the military conflict intensifies.

As allAfrica commentator Daniel Makokera argued: “The strikes on Iran are a reminder that geopolitics and grocery bills are connected. For Africa, the lesson is not merely diplomatic — it is developmental. Energy independence, regional trade integration and diversified economies are no longer abstract ambitions. They are shields against volatility.”

The ISS framed the imperative for Africa’s leaders with equal urgency: “Only through a unified, strategic voice can Africa avoid marginalisation.” In a world where energy markets, food supply chains and maritime shipping lanes are increasingly intertwined with military conflicts thousands of kilometres away, ECOWAS’ statement is not merely a diplomatic gesture — it is a recognition that West Africa’s economic survival depends, in no small part, on what happens next in the Strait of Hormuz.

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By: Montel Kamau

Serrari Financial Analyst

2nd March, 2026