Saudi Arabia, which was previously recognized as the fastest-growing economy in the G20, is now experiencing a notable economic slowdown in the second quarter of this year. During this period, the country’s GDP only expanded by 1.1% annually, a stark contrast to the impressive 11.2% growth seen in the same quarter of 2022.

The main reasons behind this economic deceleration are the reductions in crude oil output and the decline in oil prices, which have had a significant impact on the country’s revenue streams. As the world’s leading oil exporter, Saudi Arabia has been grappling with the effects of lower global crude prices and voluntary oil production cuts. Consequently, the non-oil GDP experienced a 4.2% decline during the second quarter.

Despite the challenges in the oil sector, the non-oil sector managed to grow by 5.5% in the same period, showcasing the country’s commitment to diversifying its economy under the ambitious Vision 2030 program led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. However, the nation’s heavy reliance on oil continues to pose a significant vulnerability, especially in the face of fluctuating oil prices.

The geopolitical tensions, such as the invasion of Ukraine by Moscow and international sanctions, briefly favored Saudi Arabia’s oil exports and raised prices last year. However, this surge was short-lived, and the Saudi economy is now facing oil prices below $80 per barrel due to concerns about a macroeconomic slowdown and reduced demand resulting from the ongoing impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Furthermore, Saudi Arabia is taking on a major share of the voluntary crude production cuts agreed upon by certain OPEC+ nations. This includes reducing output by 1 million barrels per day until the end of 2024 as part of a collective effort to stabilize oil prices. Russia, an important ally in petropolitics, is also cutting crude exports by 500,000 barrels per day in the coming months.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had previously praised Saudi Arabia’s remarkable economic expansion of 8.7% in 2022, making it the fastest-growing G20 economy. However, the IMF has revised its projections and now anticipates a slower GDP growth rate of 1.9% for Saudi Arabia in 2023, mainly due to the production cuts agreed upon within OPEC+.

Despite challenges in the oil sector, the IMF emphasizes that private investments, including those related to ambitious “giga-projects,” continue to support strong growth in non-oil sectors. Nevertheless, the slowdown in Saudi Arabia’s economy is expected to have ripple effects on the overall performance of the Middle East and Central Asian region, where the IMF now projects a growth rate of only 2.5% for this year, down from the impressive 5.4% growth recorded in 2022.

Moving forward, the Saudi Arabian government is likely to extend its voluntary oil output cut of 1 million barrels per day into September to provide additional support to the global oil market. This decision comes as oil prices are expected to show the largest monthly gain in over a year, offering a glimmer of hope for a rebound in the Kingdom’s oil-dependent economy.

As the global economic landscape continues to evolve, Saudi Arabia must navigate through the challenges posed by oil market dynamics while steadfastly pursuing its diversification efforts to build a resilient and sustainable economy for the future.

By: Montel Kamau Serrari Financial Analyst 31st July 2023

photo source Google