The Zambian government has announced an ambitious fiscal consolidation strategy targeting a dramatic reduction in its budget deficit as part of a newly approved medium-term economic framework covering 2026–2028. The comprehensive plan, recently endorsed by Cabinet and presented by Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane, aims to strengthen fiscal discipline, restore macroeconomic stability, and rebuild investor confidence in Zambia’s economic management following years of debt distress, drought-related agricultural disruptions, and global economic volatility.
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Under the framework’s ambitious targets, Zambia plans to reduce its fiscal deficit from 3.1 percent of GDP in 2025 to just 0.7 percent of GDP by 2027—representing a reduction of more than three-quarters over a two-year period. This aggressive consolidation path reflects the government’s determination to demonstrate fiscal credibility to international creditors, multilateral institutions, and private investors whose confidence proved essential to Zambia’s recent successful debt restructuring negotiations.
The announcement comes at a critical juncture for the Southern African nation, which became the first African country to default on its sovereign debt during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. After lengthy and complex negotiations with creditors, Zambia finally reached a debt restructuring agreement in 2023 that provided some fiscal breathing room. However, the country’s economic recovery has been repeatedly tested by severe droughts affecting agricultural production and hydroelectric power generation, global commodity price volatility impacting copper revenues, and the lingering effects of years of economic mismanagement under the previous administration.
The Framework’s Core Components: Revenue, Borrowing, and Inflation Targets
The medium-term economic framework establishes several interconnected targets designed to restore fiscal sustainability and macroeconomic stability. Central to the plan is a commitment to boost domestic revenue collection to above 22 percent of GDP annually—a significant increase from current levels that will require substantial improvements in tax administration, compliance, and base-broadening measures.
Zambia’s revenue-to-GDP ratio has historically lagged behind regional peers and international benchmarks for countries at similar development levels. According to International Monetary Fund assessments, Zambia’s tax revenue consistently falls short of its potential given the country’s economic structure and income levels. This revenue underperformance stems from multiple factors including a narrow tax base concentrated on formal sector wages and large mining companies, extensive tax exemptions and incentives that erode the base without commensurate economic benefits, weak tax administration capacity with limited audit coverage and enforcement, significant informal sector activity that escapes taxation, and periodic political interference in tax collection efforts.
Raising domestic revenue above 22 percent of GDP will require addressing these structural weaknesses through comprehensive tax policy and administration reforms. The government has signaled intentions to broaden the tax base by bringing more economic activity into the formal sector, rationalize tax exemptions by reviewing and eliminating ineffective incentives, strengthen tax administration through technology adoption and capacity building, improve compliance through enhanced audit and enforcement capabilities, and reduce opportunities for evasion through better information systems and inter-agency coordination.
On the expenditure side, the framework commits to capping net domestic borrowing at approximately 1.7 percent of GDP throughout the medium-term period. This borrowing constraint reflects recognition that excessive domestic borrowing crowds out private sector credit, drives up interest rates that discourage productive investment, increases debt service costs that consume growing portions of government revenue, and risks triggering debt sustainability concerns among creditors and rating agencies.
Zambia’s domestic debt burden expanded significantly during the years leading to the 2020 default, as the government increasingly turned to domestic markets when international borrowing became prohibitively expensive or unavailable. This domestic borrowing surge created multiple problems including reduced credit availability for businesses and consumers, upward pressure on interest rates throughout the economy, concerns about debt monetization and potential inflation, and questions about the banking sector’s exposure to sovereign risk given heavy government bond holdings.
The inflation target embedded in the framework anticipates maintaining single-digit inflation through 2028, representing a continuation of recent progress in price stability after the elevated inflation rates experienced during the debt crisis and pandemic period. Low and stable inflation provides crucial benefits including preserving household purchasing power and living standards, maintaining the real value of savings and fixed-income investments, reducing uncertainty that discourages long-term planning and investment, and supporting currency stability and exchange rate predictability.
The framework also commits to maintaining foreign exchange reserves at no less than three months of import cover—a standard adequacy metric indicating whether a country holds sufficient reserves to continue importing essential goods and services during periods of external payment difficulties. Adequate reserves enhance economic resilience by providing buffers against external shocks, supporting confidence in currency stability and convertibility, enabling the central bank to smooth excessive exchange rate volatility, and signaling creditworthiness to international investors and trade partners.
Finance Minister’s Justification: Responding to Recent Economic Shocks
Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane emphasized that the contractionary fiscal stance reflected in the framework represents a necessary response to the severe economic challenges Zambia has confronted in recent years. “Fiscal policy will be contractionary, with the fiscal deficit projected at 0.7 percent of GDP by 2027 from 3.1 percent in 2025,” Minister Musokotwane stated, explicitly acknowledging the challenging adjustments required to achieve these targets.
The minister specifically highlighted the impact of recent droughts that devastated agricultural production and crippled hydroelectric power generation capacity. Zambia experienced one of the most severe droughts in decades during the 2023–2024 agricultural season, with rainfall deficits reaching 30-50 percent below normal levels in many regions. The agricultural impact proved catastrophic for a country where farming employs approximately 60 percent of the workforce and contributes significantly to GDP and export earnings.
Maize production, the staple food crop for most Zambians, declined precipitously, necessitating expensive grain imports to prevent widespread food insecurity. Cash crops including tobacco also suffered major production shortfalls, reducing rural incomes and foreign exchange earnings. The drought’s effects extended beyond direct agricultural losses to include reduced demand for agricultural inputs, transportation services, and rural trade, creating ripple effects throughout the economy.
Perhaps even more consequential for Zambia’s economy and public finances, the drought severely impacted hydroelectric power generation. Zambia relies overwhelmingly on hydropower for electricity, with the massive Kariba Dam on the Zambezi River providing the bulk of generating capacity. Low rainfall translated into reduced water levels in the Kariba reservoir, forcing dramatic cuts in power generation and resulting in extensive load-shedding—rotating power cuts affecting households, businesses, and mines.
The electricity crisis inflicted severe economic damage, with mines forced to reduce operations or shut down temporarily, manufacturing plants unable to maintain normal production schedules, businesses losing productivity and incurring costs for backup generators and diesel fuel, and households facing disrupted daily routines and spoiled food from lack of refrigeration. The cumulative economic cost of the power crisis likely reached billions of dollars, reducing government revenue collections while simultaneously increasing demands for relief spending and power sector subsidies.
Global economic shocks further compounded these domestic challenges. Copper prices, which generate the majority of Zambia’s export earnings and government mineral revenues, experienced significant volatility during 2024 and 2025 as global demand fluctuations and supply developments whipsawed markets. While copper prices remain elevated by historical standards, supporting a recovery in mining sector revenues, the volatility complicates fiscal planning and budget projections that depend heavily on mineral revenue assumptions.
Implementation Challenges: Analysts Express Cautious Skepticism
While acknowledging the framework’s ambition and the government’s stated commitment to fiscal discipline, economic analysts both within Zambia and internationally have expressed cautious skepticism about implementation prospects. The concerns center on several concrete risk factors that could derail the consolidation plan or force modifications to the aggressive deficit-reduction timeline.
Election-year political pressures represent perhaps the most immediate concern. Zambia faces general elections in 2026, creating powerful incentives for increased public spending as the incumbent government seeks to demonstrate its effectiveness and generosity to voters. Electoral cycles across Africa and globally consistently correlate with fiscal expansion as governments deploy public resources to influence voting behavior through infrastructure projects in swing constituencies, increased civil service hiring and wage awards, expanded subsidy programs and social transfers, and accelerated disbursements of development funds to local authorities.
Resisting these electoral spending pressures requires extraordinary political discipline that many governments struggle to maintain when faced with competitive elections. The opposition will inevitably criticize any spending restraint as heartless austerity, while supporters and special interests will demand that their priorities receive funding. Cabinet ministers will advocate for their sectoral budgets, arguing that their programs represent essential investments or necessary social protection. The cumulative effect of these pressures can easily derail fiscal consolidation plans regardless of initial good intentions.
Zambia’s experience during the 2015–2016 electoral cycle provides sobering precedent. The government dramatically expanded spending heading into the 2016 elections, abandoning previously announced fiscal consolidation targets and initiating aggressive domestic and external borrowing that contributed directly to the debt crisis that emerged within just a few years. While current leadership has explicitly committed to avoiding such mistakes, the political economy dynamics that drive electoral spending remain powerful.
Copper price volatility represents another significant risk factor given the commodity’s central role in Zambian public finances. Copper typically accounts for 70-80 percent of Zambia’s export earnings and provides a substantial share of government revenues through mineral royalties, corporate taxes on mining companies, and indirect economic activity that generates additional tax revenue. The government’s revenue projections necessarily incorporate assumptions about copper prices and production volumes, yet both factors remain subject to considerable uncertainty.
Global copper markets face competing forces that could drive prices in either direction. On the bullish side, the energy transition and electrification require massive copper consumption for electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure, and grid expansion. Constrained mine supply due to insufficient investment and declining ore grades at existing operations may struggle to meet projected demand growth. However, bearish scenarios include the possibility of Chinese economic slowdown reducing the world’s largest copper consumer’s appetite, development of new mining capacity in various countries adding supply, and potential technological substitution reducing copper intensity in some applications.
Climate-related risks extend well beyond drought to encompass a range of environmental hazards that could disrupt economic activity and strain public finances. Beyond agricultural impacts and hydropower disruptions, climate change manifestations relevant to Zambia include increased frequency and severity of flooding during rainy seasons, rising temperatures affecting human health and labor productivity, shifts in disease vectors expanding malaria and other tropical diseases, and environmental degradation affecting long-term agricultural sustainability and biodiversity.
These climate vulnerabilities require investments in adaptation and resilience that compete for scarce fiscal resources with other pressing needs. Building climate-resilient infrastructure, developing drought-resistant agricultural systems, diversifying the power sector beyond hydroelectricity, strengthening disaster preparedness and response capabilities, and implementing environmental conservation programs all demand funding at precisely the time when the government commits to dramatic fiscal tightening.
Tax Policy Reforms: The Revenue Enhancement Strategy
Achieving the ambitious target of raising domestic revenue above 22 percent of GDP will require comprehensive tax policy reforms that address the structural weaknesses that have constrained Zambian revenue performance for decades. The government has outlined a multi-pronged approach focusing on base-broadening measures, exemption rationalization, and administrative improvements.
Broadening the tax base involves bringing more economic activity and taxpayers into the formal tax system. This includes initiatives to formalize elements of the informal sector through simplified tax regimes, improved taxpayer education and registration processes, and incentives encouraging voluntary compliance. The informal sector represents a substantial portion of Zambian economic activity—estimates suggest 50-60 percent or more—yet contributes minimally to tax revenues. While fully formalizing this sector remains unrealistic, even modest improvements in compliance could yield significant revenue gains.
The framework emphasizes tightening oversight of tax exemptions and incentives that erode the revenue base without delivering commensurate economic benefits. Zambia has accumulated a complex array of tax exemptions over decades, including sectoral incentives for agriculture, tourism, and manufacturing, regional development incentives for specific geographic areas, exemptions for charitable organizations, religious entities, and NGOs, and special arrangements for mining companies and large investors negotiated on a case-by-case basis.
Many of these exemptions, when originally granted, presumably reflected specific policy objectives such as attracting investment, supporting particular industries, or achieving social goals. However, exemptions tend to persist long after their original justification becomes obsolete, creating entrenched interests that resist reform. Moreover, exemption administration creates opportunities for abuse, with ineligible parties claiming exemptions through false documentation, genuine exemptions being extended to non-qualifying activities or purchases, and exemption benefits flowing to unintended recipients through various schemes.
International evidence consistently demonstrates that broad-based tax systems with limited exemptions generate more revenue, create fewer economic distortions, prove simpler and cheaper to administer, and reduce opportunities for corruption compared to systems riddled with exemptions and special regimes. The Zambian government’s commitment to exemption rationalization aligns with World Bank and IMF technical advice consistently provided to developing countries seeking to enhance domestic revenue mobilization.
Improving efficiency in tax administration represents the third pillar of the revenue strategy. Even well-designed tax policies fail to generate expected revenues if administration proves ineffective. The Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA), the country’s tax collection agency, requires continued strengthening across multiple dimensions including investment in modern information technology systems enabling electronic filing, payment, and data analysis, enhanced audit capabilities to detect non-compliance and evasion, improved taxpayer services reducing compliance costs and encouraging voluntary participation, better inter-agency information sharing to identify discrepancies and hidden income, and strengthened enforcement including prosecution of serious tax crimes.
The government has received technical and financial support from international partners including the IMF, World Bank, and bilateral donors to support tax administration modernization. These initiatives have yielded improvements in recent years, contributing to modest revenue gains. However, substantial work remains to bring ZRA capabilities to regional and international best practice standards. Continued investment in systems, staff training, and organizational development represents a necessary prerequisite for achieving the ambitious revenue targets embedded in the medium-term framework.
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Debt Context: The Shadow of Default and Restructuring
Zambia’s fiscal consolidation plans unfold against the backdrop of recent debt default and restructuring that profoundly shaped the country’s economic trajectory and policy options. Understanding this context proves essential to appreciating both the urgency of fiscal reforms and the constraints under which the government operates.
Zambia’s debt difficulties emerged gradually during the 2010s as successive governments pursued aggressive borrowing from both commercial and official creditors to finance infrastructure investment and expanded government operations. While some borrowing supported genuinely productive investments, much went toward projects of questionable economic viability, recurrent spending that should have been funded from domestic revenues, and in some cases simply disappeared into corruption and mismanagement.
By the late 2010s, Zambia’s debt burden had reached unsustainable levels by any reasonable metric, with debt-to-GDP ratios approaching 120 percent, debt service consuming over 30 percent of government revenue, and the government increasingly unable to access new financing on reasonable terms. The COVID-19 pandemic delivered the final blow, collapsing copper prices, tourism revenues, and economic activity while simultaneously increasing health and social spending needs. In November 2020, Zambia became the first African country to default on its Eurobonds during the pandemic, missing a $42.5 million interest payment.
The default triggered a complex and protracted restructuring process involving negotiations with diverse creditor groups including Eurobond holders represented by a creditor committee, bilateral creditors coordinated through the Paris Club and G20 Common Framework, Chinese lenders who had become major creditors through infrastructure project financing, and multilateral institutions including the IMF, World Bank, and African Development Bank. These negotiations proved contentious, with disagreements over burden-sharing between different creditor categories, disputes about the true extent of Chinese lending and appropriate terms, and debates about appropriate debt sustainability analysis and required debt relief.
After nearly three years of negotiations, Zambia finally reached restructuring agreements with its major creditor groups in 2023, providing substantial debt relief through principal reductions, maturity extensions, and interest rate modifications. The restructuring cleared the path for resumption of IMF lending under an Extended Credit Facility arrangement that provided crucial external financing and technical support for economic reforms. Additionally, the restructuring restored some access to international capital markets and bilateral financing that had been cut off during the default period.
However, the restructuring imposed strict conditions on Zambian fiscal policy, including commitments to specific deficit targets, debt ceilings limiting new borrowing, and requirements for continued structural reforms in tax policy, expenditure management, and governance. The medium-term economic framework announced by the government essentially operationalizes these restructuring commitments, translating broad fiscal targets into specific annual deficit and borrowing limits that guide budget preparation.
The recent default experience profoundly influences current policy debates and government decision-making. Memories of the economic and social costs of default—suspended development projects, delayed civil service salaries, reduced social spending, collapsed investor confidence, and damaged international reputation—create strong incentives to avoid any backsliding that might trigger renewed debt difficulties. However, these same memories also generate political resistance to the austerity and adjustment required to maintain fiscal discipline, particularly among constituencies that bore the heaviest burdens during the crisis.
Regional and International Dimensions: Zambia’s Broader Context
Zambia’s fiscal consolidation efforts occur within broader regional and international contexts that shape both the challenges faced and the support available. As a landlocked Southern African nation, Zambia’s economic fortunes interconnect with neighboring countries through trade relationships, infrastructure dependencies, migration patterns, and shared environmental challenges.
The Southern African Development Community (SADC), of which Zambia is a founding member, provides a regional integration framework encompassing trade liberalization, infrastructure development cooperation, and macroeconomic policy coordination. Zambia’s fiscal challenges echo difficulties faced by several regional peers including Zimbabwe’s hyperinflation legacy and ongoing economic crisis, Mozambique’s debt distress following hidden debt scandal and insurgency costs, Malawi’s recurrent balance of payments difficulties and IMF program engagement, and Angola’s economic adjustment following the oil price collapse and excessive debt accumulation.
However, Zambia also benefits from regional stability and growth in key partners. South Africa, despite its own economic challenges, remains a crucial trade partner and source of investment and technical expertise. Botswana provides an example of prudent macroeconomic management and good governance that Zambian policymakers reference. The Democratic Republic of Congo, despite persistent instability, offers economic opportunities through cross-border trade and potential infrastructure cooperation.
International financial institutions play central roles in supporting Zambia’s adjustment efforts through both financial resources and technical assistance. The IMF’s Extended Credit Facility provides balance of payments support and serves as a seal of approval encouraging other creditors and investors. The World Bank Group finances specific development projects while providing policy advice on public financial management, social protection, and structural reforms. The African Development Bank supports infrastructure development and regional integration initiatives.
Bilateral development partners including the United States, United Kingdom, European Union members, Japan, and others provide grant funding, concessional loans, and technical cooperation supporting various reform priorities. Increasingly, China has become a crucial bilateral partner not only through lending and investment but also through its role in debt restructuring negotiations and ongoing commercial relationships in mining and infrastructure.
Social and Political Dimensions: Who Bears Adjustment Costs?
Fiscal consolidation inevitably involves difficult choices about who bears the costs of adjustment—a political economy challenge that transcends purely technical considerations about optimal policy design. The distribution of adjustment burdens significantly affects both political feasibility and social equity considerations that should inform policy choices.
Government expenditure cuts required to reduce deficits can fall on various categories including civil service employment and compensation, social spending programs serving poor and vulnerable populations, subsidies on fuel, electricity, and food that particularly benefit urban consumers, infrastructure investment and development projects, and transfers to local governments and special funds. Each spending reduction creates specific losers who will organize politically to resist cuts and attempt to shift burdens elsewhere.
Revenue enhancement efforts similarly create differentiated impacts. Broadening the tax base to include more informal sector actors affects small traders, artisans, and service providers operating at society’s economic margins. Eliminating tax exemptions harms companies and sectors that benefited from preferential treatment. Improved tax enforcement increases the real tax burden on those who previously evaded. The question of who pays how much additional tax carries significant distributional implications and potential political backlash.
The Zambian government faces particular pressure to protect social spending that supports vulnerable populations while simultaneously achieving dramatic fiscal consolidation. Social protection programs including cash transfers, school feeding programs, agricultural input subsidies, and healthcare spending serve millions of poor Zambians for whom these programs represent the difference between severe deprivation and minimal subsistence. Cutting such programs to achieve fiscal targets risks humanitarian crises and political unrest, yet protecting all social spending necessitates even deeper cuts elsewhere or more aggressive revenue measures.
The government has emphasized that fiscal consolidation will be pursued in ways that protect the most vulnerable and maintain essential social spending. However, translating this commitment into specific budget allocations amid overall spending constraints will prove enormously challenging. International experience suggests that fiscal consolidation episodes frequently result in disproportionate burdens falling on the poor and vulnerable unless explicit measures protect social spending and progressive taxation principles guide revenue measures.
Economic Growth Implications: Can Zambia Consolidate While Growing?
A crucial question surrounding Zambia’s fiscal consolidation strategy involves whether aggressive deficit reduction might undermine economic growth and thereby prove self-defeating. Standard macroeconomic theory suggests that contractionary fiscal policy—reducing government spending or increasing taxes—generally reduces aggregate demand in the economy, potentially slowing growth or even triggering recession if pursued too aggressively during periods of economic weakness.
This concern carries particular weight given Zambia’s relatively low income levels and ongoing recovery from recent economic shocks. If fiscal consolidation substantially reduces government spending on infrastructure, education, health, and other productive investments, long-term growth potential could suffer. Similarly, if tax increases discourage private investment and consumption, near-term growth may slow, reducing the revenue gains from tax measures and leaving the deficit-reduction arithmetic worse than projected.
However, proponents of fiscal consolidation argue that restoring fiscal credibility and macroeconomic stability creates essential preconditions for sustainable growth. In this view, the previous trajectory of rising deficits and accumulating debt proved fundamentally unsustainable and ultimately produced the 2020 default that devastated economic confidence and access to financing. Only by demonstrating fiscal discipline can Zambia rebuild the confidence necessary to attract private investment, reduce borrowing costs, and create stable conditions that enable businesses to plan and grow.
Additionally, fiscal consolidation that reduces government domestic borrowing can free up credit for private sector borrowers and lower interest rates throughout the economy, potentially stimulating private investment that offsets reduced government spending. If revenue enhancement focuses on improving tax efficiency and reducing distortions rather than simply raising rates, the growth impact may prove modest while fiscal gains remain substantial.
The actual growth outcome will depend on implementation details including the composition of expenditure adjustments—whether cuts fall on productive investments or less essential spending, the design of revenue measures—whether they improve system efficiency or simply extract more from existing bases, macroeconomic conditions—whether global and regional growth supports Zambian exports and investment, and credibility effects—whether successful fiscal consolidation rebuilds confidence sufficiently to attract investment.
Conclusion: A Defining Test for Zambian Economic Management
Zambia’s announcement of ambitious fiscal consolidation targets represents a defining test for the government’s economic management capabilities and political will to implement difficult reforms. The targets themselves appear achievable from a purely technical standpoint—numerous countries have successfully reduced fiscal deficits by comparable magnitudes over similar timeframes. However, technical feasibility differs fundamentally from political and practical achievability in the messy realities of governing a developing country facing multiple simultaneous challenges.
Success would yield substantial benefits including enhanced macroeconomic stability reducing inflation and exchange rate volatility, improved investor confidence attracting private capital for growth, reduced debt service burdens freeing resources for development priorities, and strengthened credibility with international partners facilitating continued support. These gains would position Zambia favorably for sustained economic development and poverty reduction over the medium to long term.
Failure to achieve the stated targets, conversely, would carry significant costs including damaged credibility with creditors potentially triggering renewed debt difficulties, loss of international financial institution support if program conditions are breached, return of macroeconomic instability with elevated inflation and currency depreciation, and setbacks to economic recovery and development progress. The reputational costs of announcing ambitious targets but failing to achieve them might exceed the costs of having set more modest objectives in the first place.
The coming months and years will reveal whether Zambia’s government possesses the technical capacity, political will, and fortune with exogenous factors necessary to deliver on its fiscal consolidation commitments. The stakes extend well beyond dry fiscal statistics to encompass the livelihoods and prospects of millions of Zambians whose futures depend fundamentally on whether their government can finally break cycles of fiscal mismanagement and debt accumulation that have plagued the country for decades. For a nation still emerging from the trauma of default and drought, the ambitious path ahead offers both the promise of lasting stability and the peril of another disappointment in a long series of unfulfilled reform commitments.
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By: Montel Kamau
Serrari Financial Analyst
29th September, 2025
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