The average long-term U.S. mortgage rate has reached its lowest point in four months, bringing potential relief to homebuyers navigating a challenging market.
Freddie Mac’s latest data showcases a substantial drop in the average 30-year mortgage rate, sliding from 7.22% to 7.03% over the past week. This is a notable shift from the 6.33% recorded a year ago, with the last comparable figure noted in early August at 6.96%.
For those considering 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, a popular choice among refinancers, there’s encouraging news as well. This week, the average rate fell from 6.56% to 6.29%, compared to the 5.67% recorded a year ago.
The consistent decline in mortgage rates is closely tied to the recent retreat in the 10-year Treasury yield, a key influencer in loan pricing for lenders. The pullback in the yield, peaking at its highest since 2007 in mid-October, stems from growing optimism that the Federal Reserve might conclude its interest rate hikes in response to lower inflation.
Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, acknowledges the positive impact of these lower rates but underlines the necessity for further drops to sustain market demand.
September 2022 saw the average rate on a 30-year home loan surpassing the 6% mark, a level it has maintained since. Late October recorded a peak at 7.79%, the highest since records began in late 2000.
The decline in mortgage rates arrives as a potential boon for prospective homebuyers, given the 20.2% decline in sales of previously occupied U.S. homes in the first 10 months of this year. Rising home prices due to a persistent supply-demand imbalance have posed challenges, but the easing mortgage rates could empower borrowers, expanding their purchasing power in a highly competitive market.
However, it’s essential to note that the current average rate on a 30-year home loan is significantly higher than just two years ago, standing at 3.10%. This gap between past and present rates contributes to the scarcity of homes for sale, as homeowners who secured favorable rates in the past are hesitant to sell in the current market conditions.
The positive impact of declining rates is evident in the housing market, with a noticeable increase in demand for home loans reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association, marking a fifth consecutive weekly rise in mortgage applications.
Looking ahead, housing economists anticipate a continuation of easing mortgage rates into 2024. Despite this positive trend, projections suggest that the average rate on a 30-year home loan will likely remain above 6%, emphasizing the dynamic nature of the real estate landscape. As the market evolves, these shifts in mortgage rates are reshaping opportunities for both homebuyers and sellers alike. Stay tuned for updates on this unfolding narrative.
By: Montel Kamau
Serrari Financial Analyst
7th December, 2023
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