Trafigura Launches $1 Billion African Woodland Restoration Initiative to Remove 50 Million Tonnes of Carbon

A groundbreaking public-private partnership backed by global commodity trader Trafigura has announced its first four carbon removal projects across Southern Africa, marking a significant milestone in the effort to restore one of the world’s most vital yet threatened woodland ecosystems. The Miombo Restoration Alliance plans to invest at least $1 billion over the 40-year lifespan of these initial projects, which collectively span 675,000 hectares and are expected to remove more than 50 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions from the atmosphere.

The announcement represents a pivotal transition for the Alliance from planning to implementation, bringing concrete climate action to a region where environmental conservation intersects with the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people. Launched during New York Climate Week in September 2024, the initiative addresses the urgent need to rehabilitate Miombo woodland ecosystems that support more than 300 million people across central and southern Africa but face accelerating pressures from deforestation, climate change, and unsustainable resource use.

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Understanding the Miombo: Africa’s Forgotten Giant

The Miombo woodlands represent one of Earth’s largest and most ecologically significant dry forest ecosystems, yet they remain relatively unknown compared to high-profile rainforests like the Amazon or Congo Basin. Covering approximately 1.9 million square kilometers across 11 countries including Angola, Mozambique, Zambia, Tanzania, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Republic of Congo, and South Africa, these seasonally dry woodlands are characterized by the prevalence of trees from the Brachystegia, Julbernardia, and Isoberlinia genera—with “miombo” deriving from the Swahili name for these distinctive trees.

The ecological importance of the Miombo extends far beyond its impressive geographic scale. The ecosystem supports extraordinary biodiversity, providing habitat for over 50% of Africa’s remaining elephant population along with numerous other iconic species including rhinos, lions, giraffes, and thousands of plant and animal species found nowhere else on Earth. The woodlands’ semi-deciduous character—with many trees losing their leaves during the long dry season—creates a dynamic landscape that shifts dramatically throughout the year, from lush green canopy during the rainy season to a stark, leafless appearance in the dry months.

For the region’s human inhabitants, the Miombo functions as what researchers call a “social ecosystem”—fundamentally intertwined with daily life and economic survival. More than 70% of the population in Miombo regions depends on the woodlands for essential resources. Fuelwood and charcoal derived from Miombo trees account for three-quarters of energy usage in the region, providing cooking and heating fuel for both rural and urban populations. Beyond energy, communities extract building materials, medicinal plants, edible fruits, honey, mushrooms, thatching grass, and numerous other non-timber forest products that sustain livelihoods and cultural practices. For some families in Mozambique, revenue generated from Miombo resources can represent anywhere from 42 to 92% of household income.

The Crisis: Accelerating Degradation

Despite their immense ecological and social value, Miombo woodlands face an existential crisis. Between 2006 and 2021, the ecosystem decreased from 2.7 million km² to 1.9 million km²—a loss of nearly 800,000 square kilometers, representing approximately one-third of its total area in just 15 years. This rate of deforestation far exceeds sustainable levels and threatens to trigger irreversible ecological tipping points.

The drivers of Miombo degradation are complex and interconnected. Population growth across the region, averaging approximately 2.7% annually, creates mounting pressure for agricultural expansion and infrastructure development. Shifting cultivation practices, commercial logging, mining operations, and the conversion of woodland to farmland all contribute to habitat loss. In Tanzania alone, where approximately 93% of total forest cover consists of Miombo woodlands, deforestation and degradation has reached an average of 400,000 hectares per year.

Perhaps the most pernicious driver is the escalating demand for charcoal and firewood. As both rural and urban populations grow, the commercial charcoal industry has expanded dramatically, with intense cutting outstripping the woodland’s natural regenerative capacity. In Zimbabwe, the use of firewood to cure tobacco—an important cash crop—accounts for nearly a quarter of Miombo deforestation, creating localized hotspots of rapid degradation.

Climate change compounds these pressures by altering rainfall patterns, increasing the frequency and severity of droughts, and making the ecosystem more vulnerable to fires and other disturbances. The combined effect of these threats creates a vicious cycle: as the woodlands degrade, their capacity to provide ecosystem services diminishes, forcing communities to extract resources even more intensively from the remaining forests, which accelerates further degradation.

The Maputo Declaration: A Regional Response

Recognition of the Miombo crisis catalyzed unprecedented regional cooperation. In August 2022, heads of state from 11 Southern African nations convened in Maputo, Mozambique, to sign the Maputo Declaration on the Miombo Woodland, establishing regional priorities for conserving and sustainably managing this vital ecosystem. Led by Mozambican President Filipe Jacinto Nyusi, the Miombo Initiative represents a commitment by participating governments to collaborative action across national boundaries—an essential approach given that the ecosystem transcends political borders and its challenges cannot be solved by any single country acting alone.

The Declaration emerged from a clear-eyed recognition that traditional conservation approaches would be insufficient. With more than 73% of the population in some Miombo regions relying on wood fuel as their primary energy source and lacking access to alternatives, conservation efforts must address the underlying drivers of degradation while providing viable livelihood alternatives for communities. The initiative therefore emphasizes not only protection of existing woodlands but also restoration of degraded areas, sustainable forest management practices, payment for ecosystem services, climate change adaptation, and meaningful community participation.

Structuring the Restoration Alliance

Building on the political commitment established by the Maputo Declaration, the Miombo Restoration Alliance was formally launched at New York Climate Week in September 2024. The Alliance brings together public and private sector partners in a multi-stakeholder framework designed to mobilize substantial capital for large-scale native species restoration.

The ICCF Group (International Conservation Caucus Foundation) serves as the Alliance’s secretariat, providing coordination and governance functions. Trafigura, one of the world’s leading commodity trading firms, acts as the founding private sector partner and primary financial backer. Conservation International serves as adviser to the Alliance, bringing technical expertise in ecosystem restoration and ensuring that projects deliver positive environmental and community outcomes aligned with international best practices.

This public-private partnership structure reflects a broader shift in conservation finance toward blended models that combine concessional funding, philanthropic capital, and commercial investment. The initial $500 million investment target announced at the launch has since been revised upward to at least $1 billion for the first four projects alone, signaling both the scale of ambition and growing investor confidence in the model.

Hannah Hauman, Trafigura’s Head of Carbon Trading, emphasized the strategic rationale for private sector engagement: “We really see the carbon markets as critical, as being able to channel private sector capital in a way that makes these projects long-term and sustainable.” This framing positions carbon markets not as a peripheral financing mechanism but as an essential infrastructure for mobilizing climate finance at the scale required to address ecosystem degradation across a region spanning millions of square kilometers.

The Four Pioneer Projects

The Alliance’s announcement identified specific projects in Mozambique, Zambia, Tanzania, and Malawi as the initial focus for implementation. While full details of all projects have not been publicly disclosed, the Alliance has highlighted two flagship initiatives that illustrate the scope and approach of the program.

Malawi: Large-Scale Ecosystem Restoration

The Malawi project represents the most ambitious undertaking in the initial portfolio, covering more than 550,000 hectares of degraded Miombo woodland. This single project accounts for over 80% of the total land area under restoration in the initial phase, making it one of Africa’s largest native species restoration efforts.

A centerpiece of the Malawi initiative is the recent completion of one of Africa’s largest native species nurseries, providing the seedling production capacity necessary to support restoration at landscape scale. Unlike monoculture plantation approaches that have characterized some earlier restoration efforts, the Alliance emphasizes native species diversity, working to recreate the complex ecological communities that characterize healthy Miombo systems.

The project design extends beyond simple tree planting to address the underlying economic drivers of deforestation. Plans include nursery capacity earmarked specifically for community agroforestry programs, allowing farmers to integrate native trees into agricultural landscapes in ways that enhance productivity while reducing pressure on natural woodlands. Additionally, the project encompasses an “energetic forest” of at minimum 10,000 hectares dedicated to sustainable timber production, providing a renewable source of wood fuel and construction material to help address the charcoal demand that drives much Miombo degradation.

Crucially, the Malawi project incorporates substantial revenue sharing mechanisms and direct employment programs for local communities. Participating communities and the Malawian government will receive between 10% and 60% of revenues generated from carbon credit sales, with the specific percentage depending on the nature of community involvement and contribution to project implementation.

Zambia: Agroforestry and Degraded Land Restoration

The Zambia component focuses on rehabilitating degraded agricultural lands through agroforestry approaches that integrate trees into farming systems. This project is expected to benefit approximately 45,000 farmers, providing both climate mitigation benefits and improvements in agricultural productivity and resilience.

Agroforestry offers multiple advantages for smallholder farmers in Miombo regions. Trees integrated into cropland can provide nitrogen fixation to improve soil fertility, reduce erosion, create microclimates that buffer crops against climate extremes, and generate additional income streams from timber, fruit, or other tree products. When designed appropriately with native or compatible species, agroforestry systems can also provide habitat connectivity and biodiversity benefits that complement conservation of natural woodlands.

For farmers, the value proposition extends beyond environmental benefits. By participating in carbon projects, smallholders gain access to technical support, improved planting materials, and the potential for carbon revenue payments that can provide financial stability and reduce vulnerability to crop failures or market price volatility. The project structure ensures that participating farmers and communities receive direct financial benefits from carbon credit sales, creating alignment between economic incentives and environmental outcomes.

Carbon Finance and Article 6 Integration

A distinguishing feature of the Miombo Restoration Alliance is its explicit alignment with Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, the international framework for cooperative climate action through carbon markets. Article 6 establishes mechanisms for countries to voluntarily cooperate to achieve their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to climate mitigation, including through trading of carbon credits between nations.

The recent finalization of Article 6 rules at COP26 in Glasgow created a pathway for high-integrity carbon crediting mechanisms that can be used both for international compliance and voluntary corporate commitments. Article 6.2 provides a framework for bilateral or multilateral cooperation between countries, while Article 6.4 establishes a UN-supervised crediting mechanism with stringent standards for environmental integrity and sustainable development co-benefits.

By structuring projects under Article 6 from the outset, the Miombo Restoration Alliance positions itself to generate credits that meet the highest international standards and can serve multiple buyer segments—from governments seeking to meet NDC targets to corporations pursuing net-zero commitments to aviation offset requirements under schemes like CORSIA (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation).

The integration with host country governments is fundamental to the Article 6 approach. The Alliance works directly with the governments of Mozambique, Zambia, Tanzania, and Malawi, ensuring that projects align with national climate strategies and receive the authorizations necessary for international transfer of mitigation outcomes. This government partnership also facilitates the revenue sharing arrangements, with governments receiving a portion of carbon proceeds that can be invested in broader environmental and development priorities.

Economic Model and Carbon Credit Pricing

The financial viability of the Miombo Restoration Alliance depends critically on carbon credit pricing and market demand for high-quality removal credits. The Alliance’s projects are positioned to generate what market participants classify as “premium” or “high-integrity” carbon credits—those that demonstrate robust additionality (the activities would not have occurred without carbon finance), permanence (carbon storage is long-lasting), accurate quantification of climate benefits, and meaningful sustainable development co-benefits for local communities.

Comparable high-quality removal credits have traded above $50 per tonne in voluntary markets, with prices for nature-based removal credits from well-designed projects sometimes reaching substantially higher levels. At the conservative $50 per tonne price point, the projected removal of more than 50 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent across the four projects implies total potential value of at least 2.5 billion across their lifetime.

This economic potential must be understood in the context of broader carbon market trends. The voluntary carbon market has experienced significant evolution, with increasing differentiation between low-quality credits from questionable projects and high-integrity credits from well-designed interventions with robust verification. Recent analysis shows that high-rated credits (A-AAA) averaged $14.80 per tonne while low-quality credits saw just $3.50 per tonne, underscoring how market participants increasingly reward demonstrable quality and co-benefits.

For nature-based removal projects specifically—the category that includes Miombo restoration—pricing reflects both the environmental value and the substantial upfront investment and operational costs required to establish and maintain restoration at scale. Projects that integrate community benefits, demonstrate biodiversity protection, and provide transparent monitoring and reporting can command significant price premiums over generic credits.

The revenue distribution model ensures that financial benefits flow to the actors most essential for long-term success. Approximately 100,000 community members and farmers across the four projects will participate in revenue-sharing agreements, with individual payments varying from 10% to 60% depending on their role and contribution. National governments similarly receive revenue shares that can support broader conservation and development objectives. This distribution structure creates powerful economic incentives for communities and governments to support long-term project success and protection of restored areas.

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Community Engagement and Benefit Sharing

The success of landscape-scale restoration initiatives in Africa depends fundamentally on community participation and equitable benefit distribution. Historical conservation approaches that excluded local populations or imposed top-down restrictions on resource use have frequently failed, creating conflicts and undermining long-term sustainability. The Miombo Restoration Alliance explicitly prioritizes community engagement and economic benefit sharing as core design principles.

The participation of approximately 100,000 community members represents a significant social footprint across the four project areas. For many participating households, carbon revenue payments could provide meaningful supplemental income that enhances economic security and resilience. Beyond direct payments, projects generate employment through restoration activities—seedling production, planting, site preparation, monitoring, and long-term management all require substantial labor inputs that can provide jobs in rural areas with limited formal employment opportunities.

The Alliance’s technology partner Terraspect manages the distribution and transparency of revenue sharing, providing digital infrastructure to ensure that payments reach intended beneficiaries efficiently and that stakeholders can verify that benefit-sharing commitments are being honored. This transparency infrastructure addresses one of the persistent challenges in community-based carbon projects: ensuring that revenues actually flow to communities rather than being captured by intermediaries or project developers.

Beyond financial benefits, community participation in restoration can yield multiple co-benefits. Involvement in native species propagation and restoration activities builds local ecological knowledge and capacity. Agroforestry components provide farmers with improved techniques and planting materials that can enhance agricultural productivity even aside from carbon revenues. Restored landscapes deliver ecosystem services—improved water regulation, soil conservation, habitat for wild foods and medicinal plants—that benefit local populations directly.

John Gantt, CEO of the ICCF Group, emphasized the human dimension of the initiative: “This African-led initiative is on track to become one of the planet’s largest restoration projects, benefiting millions of people and conserving a vast, irreplaceable ecosystem.” The explicit framing of restoration as benefiting both people and nature reflects an evolution in conservation thinking toward integrated approaches that recognize the interdependence of human wellbeing and ecosystem health.

Technical Approach: Native Species Restoration at Scale

One of the most technically challenging aspects of the Miombo Restoration Alliance is the emphasis on native species restoration rather than faster-growing exotic plantation species. While exotic eucalyptus or pine plantations can sequester carbon more quickly in the short term, they typically provide far fewer ecological and social benefits than native species restoration and can even harm local ecosystems by altering water cycles, soil chemistry, and fire regimes.

Native Miombo species—dominated by Brachystegia, Julbernardia, and Isoberlinia genera—grow more slowly than many plantation alternatives but create ecosystems that support the full complement of biodiversity and ecosystem services that make healthy Miombo woodlands so valuable. These native species provide the fruits, honey, medicinal plants, construction materials, and other non-timber forest products that communities depend upon, creating livelihood benefits that exotic monocultures cannot match.

Restoration at the scale envisioned by the Alliance—hundreds of thousands of hectares—requires sophisticated approaches to seedling production, site preparation, planting strategies, and long-term management. The establishment of Africa’s largest native species nursery in Malawi addresses one fundamental constraint: producing millions of seedlings of appropriate native species at the quality and quantities required for landscape-scale planting.

Beyond seedling production, successful restoration must account for the ecological dynamics of Miombo systems. Fire has historically played an important role in shaping these woodlands, and restoration approaches must incorporate appropriate fire management rather than attempting complete fire exclusion, which can lead to fuel buildup and more destructive wildfires. Restoration must also address the causes of degradation—if charcoal demand or agricultural expansion continue unabated, newly restored areas will face the same pressures that degraded the landscape initially.

The “energetic forest” component in Malawi exemplifies this integrated approach. By establishing dedicated areas for sustainable timber and fuelwood production using appropriate management practices, the project aims to provide a renewable source of wood products that can help meet local and regional demand while reducing pressure on natural woodlands and newly restored areas. This approach recognizes that conservation cannot succeed by simply prohibiting resource use; it must provide viable alternatives that meet legitimate human needs.

Monitoring, Verification, and Accountability

For carbon projects to generate credible, tradeable credits, they must demonstrate rigorous monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems that accurately quantify carbon removals and ensure the permanence of carbon storage. The Miombo Restoration Alliance’s positioning under Article 6 subjects projects to international standards and oversight mechanisms designed to ensure environmental integrity.

Carbon quantification for forest restoration projects requires establishing baseline scenarios (what would have happened without the project), measuring actual carbon stock changes through forest growth and reduced degradation, and accounting for potential leakage (if project activities simply displace degradation to other areas). Advanced remote sensing technologies including satellite imagery analysis enable cost-effective monitoring of forest cover and condition across vast landscapes, complemented by ground-based sampling to calibrate and validate satellite-derived estimates.

The permanence of carbon storage—ensuring that sequestered carbon remains locked up for the long term rather than being re-released through future deforestation, fire, or degradation—presents particular challenges for nature-based projects. Unlike some technological carbon removal approaches that can permanently sequester carbon in geological formations, forests always face risks of reversal. Article 6 frameworks require projects to address these permanence risks through combination of buffer pools (a percentage of credits withheld as insurance against reversals), conservative crediting approaches, and long-term commitments from host countries to maintain protection.

The Alliance’s partnership with national governments provides a foundation for permanence by integrating projects with national forest policies and creating government ownership of long-term protection. The economic benefits flowing to communities and governments through carbon revenue sharing create aligned incentives to maintain and protect restored areas over the multi-decade timeframes required for carbon credibility.

Strategic Context: Climate Finance and Global South Development

The Miombo Restoration Alliance emerges within a broader context of evolving climate finance and changing dynamics between developed and developing nations on climate action. The initiative reflects several important trends that are reshaping how environmental protection and development intersect in the Global South.

First, there has been a marked shift toward domestic carbon market development in countries across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Rather than simply serving as sources of cheap offsets for wealthy countries and corporations, developing nations are increasingly structuring carbon projects to align with national climate strategies, generate domestic co-benefits, and retain greater value within host countries. The Alliance’s Article 6 framework and direct government partnerships exemplify this more strategic approach to carbon market participation.

Second, the initiative responds to declining levels of official development aid from wealthier nations, forcing countries to explore alternative financing mechanisms for environmental protection and climate adaptation. As traditional aid flows become less reliable, private sector investment mobilized through mechanisms like carbon markets becomes increasingly critical for funding conservation and sustainable development at scale.

Third, the project illustrates the potential for carbon markets to channel substantial private capital toward outcomes that serve both climate and development objectives. The $1 billion investment commitment dwarfs the funding available through traditional conservation grants or bilateral aid for forest protection. If successfully implemented, the Alliance could demonstrate a scalable model for leveraging private capital for ecosystem restoration across other geographies and ecosystems.

President Filipe Jacinto Nyusi of Mozambique framed the Miombo Initiative in these terms of regional leadership and self-determination: “The Miombo Restoration Alliance is investing not only in the restoration of one of Africa’s most vital ecosystems, but also in the future of Mozambique and the wider region.” This articulation positions the Alliance as an African-led initiative that happens to use international carbon finance, rather than an externally imposed project.

Challenges and Critical Perspectives

Despite the significant promise of the Miombo Restoration Alliance, the initiative faces substantial challenges and merits critical examination from several angles.

Carbon Market Integrity and Additionality

A persistent critique of carbon offset projects questions whether they represent truly “additional” climate benefits—whether the activities would genuinely not have occurred without carbon finance. For restoration projects, demonstrating additionality requires showing that the land would have remained degraded without the project intervention and that restoration would not have happened through other means such as natural regeneration or government programs.

The Alliance’s focus on degraded landscapes and the substantial investment requirements for large-scale native species restoration provide some basis for additionality claims. However, critical observers note that some African countries have independently committed to forest restoration through commitments like the AFR100 (African Forest Landscape Restoration Initiative), raising questions about whether carbon-financed projects can claim full credit for restoration that might partially align with existing government commitments.

Permanence and Long-Term Risks

Forest-based carbon projects face inherent risks from fires, droughts, pests, political instability, and changing economic pressures that could undermine carbon storage over the decades required for climate benefit. While buffer pools and conservative crediting can partially address these risks, they cannot eliminate them entirely.

The Miombo region faces particularly acute challenges from climate change itself, with projections indicating increased drought frequency and altered rainfall patterns that could stress even native species and increase fire risk. A worst-case scenario would see massive investment in restoration followed by large-scale mortality due to climate-driven droughts or fires, undermining both the carbon and ecosystem benefits.

Community Benefit Distribution and Power Dynamics

While the revenue-sharing model promises significant benefits for participating communities, critical questions remain about governance structures, decision-making processes, and whether benefits will be distributed equitably within communities. Past experiences with benefit-sharing arrangements in conservation and carbon projects show that local elites sometimes capture disproportionate benefits, women and marginalized groups may be excluded, and conflicts can emerge over benefit distribution.

The range of revenue sharing from 10% to 60% depending on “the nature of the project” leaves substantial ambiguity about how these percentages are determined and whether communities have meaningful negotiating power in these arrangements. Ensuring that 100,000 community members and farmers genuinely participate in and benefit from projects at scale requires robust governance structures and ongoing oversight.

Scale and Implementation Complexity

Managing restoration across 675,000 hectares spanning four countries presents extraordinary logistical, administrative, and coordination challenges. The gap between announcing ambitious projects and successfully implementing them on the ground is often substantial, particularly in regions with limited infrastructure, weak governance capacity, and complex land tenure arrangements.

Previous large-scale restoration initiatives in Africa and elsewhere have sometimes failed to achieve projected outcomes due to seedling mortality, inadequate site preparation, lack of maintenance, land tenure conflicts, or insufficient community buy-in. While the Alliance’s investment of $1 billion over 40 years provides significant resources, translating financial capital into successful restoration outcomes requires effective execution across multiple dimensions that money alone cannot guarantee.

Future Expansion and Regional Impact

Looking beyond the initial four projects, the Miombo Restoration Alliance has signaled intentions to expand to additional countries in the region. Hannah Hauman indicated that Trafigura expects future carbon credit supply to come from additional alliance countries, including Angola, Botswana, Namibia, Zimbabwe, the Republic of Congo, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and South Africa—all signatories to the original Maputo Declaration.

This potential expansion could dramatically increase the initiative’s climate impact and geographic footprint. The DRC portion of the Miombo, for instance, represents vast areas of woodland that could benefit from restoration investment. Angola’s extensive Miombo woodlands have experienced significant degradation from decades of conflict and post-conflict economic development pressures, creating both urgent need and substantial opportunity for restoration.

If the Alliance succeeds in scaling across the Miombo region, the cumulative impact could be transformative for both climate mitigation and regional development. The provision of sustainable livelihoods for hundreds of thousands of households, the restoration of water catchments that feed major river systems like the Zambezi, the protection of biodiversity hotspots, and the enhancement of resilience to climate change would generate benefits extending far beyond carbon sequestration alone.

Conclusion

The Miombo Restoration Alliance represents an ambitious experiment in leveraging private capital through carbon markets to address intersecting challenges of ecosystem degradation, climate change, and rural poverty across Southern Africa. With $1 billion in committed investment for initial projects spanning 675,000 hectares and the potential to remove more than 50 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, the initiative operates at a scale rarely seen in nature-based climate solutions.

The project’s success will depend on navigating complex challenges: ensuring genuine carbon additionality and permanence, creating equitable benefit-sharing arrangements that truly empower communities, managing restoration implementation across vast and remote landscapes, and maintaining political and financial support over the multi-decade timeframes required for mature forest regeneration.

Yet the potential rewards are equally significant. A successful Miombo Restoration Alliance could provide a replicable model for large-scale ecosystem restoration financed through high-integrity carbon markets, demonstrate that private investment can be mobilized for climate and development outcomes at scale, improve livelihoods for hundreds of thousands of rural Africans, and protect a globally significant ecosystem that remains far too little known despite its vast extent and importance.

As the Alliance transitions from announcement to implementation, the world will be watching to see whether this bold vision can deliver on its promises—and whether the Miombo woodlands can be restored to health for the 300 million people who depend on them and the countless species that call these forests home.

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By: Montel Kamau

Serrari Financial Analyst

4th February, 2026