South Africa has officially lifted its import ban on live poultry and poultry products from Brazil. The decision, follows the successful containment of a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak in Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul state, a critical poultry-producing region. This resolution comes after a series of intensive bilateral discussions and a thorough review of Brazil’s stringent containment measures, underscoring a commitment to science-based decision-making in international trade.

The announcement, confirmed by South Africa’s Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (DALRRD), marks the resumption of a vital trade artery between two major global agricultural players. The ban, initially imposed due to the HPAI outbreak, had raised concerns about potential supply disruptions and price escalations in the South African market, where poultry is a staple protein.

“The positive outcome is a direct result of the dedicated efforts of our officials. With this resolution, imports can resume, which will significantly contribute to enhancing food security for all citizens,” stated Minister of Agriculture John Steenhuisen. His comments highlight the dual benefits of this decision: supporting the integrity of international trade relations while prioritizing the welfare of South African consumers.

The Persistent Threat of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, commonly known as bird flu, is a severe and often fatal viral disease that primarily affects poultry and other bird species. The H5N1 strain, in particular, has caused widespread concern globally due to its high mortality rate in infected birds and its potential, albeit rare, to transmit to humans. The virus spreads rapidly through direct contact with infected birds, their secretions (saliva, nasal fluids, feces), or contaminated equipment, vehicles, clothing, and even footwear. Wild migratory birds are often carriers, silently spreading the virus across continents, making containment a formidable challenge.

The economic impact of HPAI outbreaks is devastating. When an outbreak is confirmed on a farm, standard international protocols, including those mandated by the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) (formerly OIE), require the immediate culling of entire flocks to prevent further spread. This leads to immense financial losses for poultry producers, disruptions in supply chains, and often triggers trade bans from importing countries, further exacerbating economic woes. For instance, South Africa itself has grappled with severe HPAI outbreaks in recent years. The devastating outbreak in September 2023, for example, led to the culling of nearly a third of the country’s chicken flock and cost the poultry sector an estimated R9.5 billion, resulting in severe shortages of eggs and chicken meat and rattling the nation’s food security. Such events underscore the critical need for robust biosecurity measures and rapid response mechanisms.

Brazil: A Global Poultry Powerhouse Restores Confidence

Brazil stands as an undisputed giant in the global poultry industry. It is consistently the world’s largest exporter of chicken meat, playing an indispensable role in global food supply chains. Recent forecasts projected Brazil’s chicken meat exports to reach an astounding 4.97 million metric tons in 2024, representing approximately 33% of its total production. Its key export markets span the globe, including major importers like China, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Japan. The sheer volume of Brazilian poultry ensures competitive pricing and consistent supply for many nations, including South Africa.

The HPAI outbreak in Rio Grande do Sul, though localized, posed a significant threat to Brazil’s reputation as a reliable and disease-free supplier. The affected premises in Montenegro, a breeder farm, necessitated swift and decisive action. Brazil’s veterinary authorities implemented rigorous “stamping-out measures,” which involve the humane culling of all infected and exposed animals to eliminate the virus at its source. This was followed by a mandatory 28-day waiting period, during which no new cases were detected, and thorough disinfection of the premises, all in strict adherence to WOAH protocols.

Brazil’s prompt and transparent reporting, coupled with its effective containment strategy, allowed it to officially declare itself free of HPAI on June 18, 2025. This declaration was a crucial step in regaining the trust of its trading partners and paving the way for the resumption of exports. The ability of a major exporter like Brazil to quickly and effectively manage an animal health crisis is paramount for maintaining stability in the global food market.

South Africa’s Poultry Landscape and Food Security Imperative

Poultry is not merely a food commodity in South Africa; it is a cornerstone of the national diet and a vital component of the country’s food security strategy. Chicken meat holds the largest market share in South Africa’s meat consumption, accounting for an estimated 60-66% of all meat consumed. Per capita consumption of chicken meat was approximately 34.8kg in 2023/24, significantly higher than global or African averages. The local poultry industry, a major intensive livestock sector, contributes substantially to the economy by adding value to locally produced grains and oilseeds through feed utilization and supporting a considerable number of jobs across its entire value chain.

Despite its importance, the South African poultry industry faces a myriad of challenges:

• Recurrent HPAI Outbreaks: As mentioned, local outbreaks have severely impacted domestic production, leading to mass culling and substantial financial losses for farmers.
• Infrastructure Deficiencies: Aging municipal infrastructure, particularly unreliable power supply (load shedding), has led to significant losses, including the culling of 10 million chickens in 2023 due to refrigeration failures.
• Rising Input Costs: Escalating costs of feed (maize, soybeans) and electricity exert immense pressure on profit margins for local producers.
• Import Competition vs. Supply Needs: While local producers often advocate for protectionist measures against imports, imports play a critical role in complementing domestic supply, especially during periods of reduced local production (e.g., due to disease outbreaks) or to meet surging demand. South Africa imports roughly 20% of its poultry products, with approximately 70% of those imports originating from Brazil.

Given these dynamics, the ability to import poultry reliably and affordably is crucial for South Africa to ensure a consistent supply of protein for its population, stabilize prices, and prevent food inflation, particularly for lower-income households. The ban on Brazilian poultry, therefore, directly impacted the availability and cost of chicken in South African supermarkets, making its lifting a welcome relief for consumers and policymakers alike.

A Return to Trade: The Diplomatic and Technical Resolution

The lifting of the ban was not an arbitrary decision but the result of a rigorous, science-based process. Key to this resolution was a bilateral meeting between veterinary authorities from South Africa and Brazil. Such technical dialogues are fundamental in international animal health trade, allowing for the transparent exchange of information, assessment of risk, and agreement on necessary safeguards.

During these discussions, revised Veterinary Health Certificates (VHCs) were agreed upon. VHCs are official documents issued by the veterinary authorities of the exporting country, certifying that the animals or animal products meet the health requirements of the importing country. The revision of these certificates ensures that all future poultry imports from Brazil comply with South Africa’s updated biosecurity and health standards, reflecting the lessons learned from the recent HPAI outbreak.

The effective date for the resumption of poultry trade was set for July 4, 2025. This timely decision allows for the rapid restoration of supply channels, bringing much-needed relief to the South African market. Minister Steenhuisen’s emphasis on “science-based decision making” underscores the commitment of the DALRRD to upholding international best practices and prioritizing public health and food safety over political or economic expediency.

As a precautionary measure, however, poultry products packed between May 1 and June 18, 2025, will remain restricted from entry into South Africa. This specific window corresponds to the period of active outbreak and initial containment efforts in Rio Grande do Sul. This demonstrates a continued vigilance and a layered approach to risk management, ensuring that no potentially contaminated products enter the South African food chain. The department has also affirmed its commitment to continuous monitoring, reserving the right to review the decision should any new developments indicate a potential spread of the outbreak.

The Global Standard Bearer: World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH)

The adherence to WOAH protocols by both Brazil and South Africa was paramount in facilitating the swift and confident resumption of trade. The World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH), formerly known as the Office International des Epizooties (OIE), is an intergovernmental organization established in 1924. It serves as the global authority on animal health, setting international standards for animal health and welfare, transparently disseminating information on animal diseases, and promoting safe international trade in animals and animal products.

WOAH’s mission is to improve animal health globally, thereby building a safer, healthier, and more sustainable world, recognizing the interconnectedness of human, animal, and environmental health through the “One Health” approach. Its standards, particularly the Terrestrial Animal Health Code, provide guidelines for countries to prevent, control, and eradicate animal diseases, including HPAI. These guidelines cover critical aspects such as:

• Disease Surveillance and Reporting: Prompt and accurate notification of outbreaks.
• Stamping-Out Policy: Humane culling of infected and exposed animals.
• Movement Restrictions: Quarantines and controls on the movement of animals and products.
• Biosecurity Measures: Strict hygiene and disease prevention practices on farms.
• Disinfection: Thorough cleaning and disinfection of affected premises.
• Regionalization: The concept that allows trade to continue from unaffected areas within a country, even if other parts are experiencing an outbreak, provided strict controls are in place. This is crucial for major agricultural exporters like Brazil.

Brazil’s compliance with these international standards, particularly the successful application of stamping-out measures and the subsequent 28-day waiting period, provided the necessary assurance to South African authorities that the risk of disease transmission had been effectively mitigated. This adherence to a globally recognized framework fosters trust and facilitates the resumption of trade, even after a significant animal health event.

Economic Repercussions and Consumer Relief

The initial import ban on Brazilian poultry undoubtedly created ripples across the South African market. As Brazil is the primary source of South Africa’s poultry imports, the restriction led to:

• Reduced Supply: A significant portion of the usual import volume was cut off, putting pressure on overall poultry availability.
• Price Increases: With reduced supply and persistent demand, prices for both chicken meat and eggs tended to rise, impacting household budgets, particularly for lower-income consumers who rely on poultry as an affordable protein source.
• Market Uncertainty: Businesses in the poultry value chain, from importers and distributors to retailers and food service providers, faced uncertainty regarding supply continuity and pricing.
• Increased Reliance on Alternative Sources: While South Africa might have sought poultry from other approved countries, this often comes with higher logistical costs and may not fully compensate for the volume lost from Brazil.

The lifting of the ban is expected to bring immediate and tangible benefits:

• Increased Supply: Brazilian poultry will once again flow into the South African market, significantly boosting overall supply and easing market pressure.
• Price Stabilization: The increased availability is likely to lead to a stabilization or even a reduction in poultry prices, offering much-needed relief to consumers and contributing to the moderation of food price inflation.
• Enhanced Food Security: A more diverse and robust supply chain reduces vulnerability to shocks, ensuring a consistent availability of affordable protein.
• Strengthened Trade Relations: The swift and cooperative resolution of this trade dispute reinforces the strong bilateral ties between South Africa and Brazil, both key members of the BRICS economic bloc. This fosters greater confidence in future trade and economic cooperation.

Future Vigilance and Resilience Building

While the lifting of the ban is a positive development, the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development remains vigilant. The ongoing global threat of HPAI necessitates continuous monitoring and proactive measures. The department’s commitment to “monitoring the situation closely” and the possibility of reviewing the decision based on “new developments indicating a potential spread of the outbreak” highlights the dynamic nature of animal health management in international trade.

For South Africa, building long-term food security involves a multi-faceted approach that balances robust local production with strategic, safe imports. This includes:

• Strengthening Biosecurity: Continuous investment in and enforcement of stringent biosecurity measures on farms to prevent and rapidly contain future disease outbreaks.
• Diversifying Production: Supporting the growth of the local poultry industry to reduce over-reliance on imports, while also diversifying protein sources.
• Improving Infrastructure: Addressing challenges related to energy supply and cold chain logistics to enhance the resilience of the domestic food system.
• International Cooperation: Maintaining open and transparent communication channels with trading partners and adhering to international animal health standards like those set by WOAH.

The resumption of Brazilian poultry imports is a testament to effective international cooperation and science-based risk management. It underscores the critical balance between safeguarding national animal health and ensuring affordable food access for all citizens, a balance that South Africa’s agricultural authorities continue to navigate with diligence and foresight. This development is a clear win for South African consumers and a positive signal for global agricultural trade.

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photo source: Google

By: Montel Kamau

Serrari Financial Analyst

16th July, 2025