The National Social Security Fund (NSSF) has unveiled an ambitious infrastructure-led investment strategy that will see up to Ksh30 billion of workers’ pension contributions channeled into the Rironi-Mau Summit toll road project, marking one of the most significant direct infrastructure investments by a Kenyan pension scheme. The move forms part of the fund’s aggressive push to deliver 17% annual returns to members while working toward growing its asset base to Ksh1 trillion by 2027.
The investment strategy, announced by NSSF trustees and management in early February 2026, represents a decisive shift from traditional fixed-income securities toward real assets that promise higher, inflation-linked returns over multi-decade concession periods. It also signals the fund’s determination to leverage Kenya’s rapidly expanding contribution base—which has surged following implementation of mandatory higher deductions—to pursue growth-oriented investments that could reshape both the pension landscape and national infrastructure development.
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The Rironi-Mau Summit Highway Project
The Rironi-Mau Summit Road forms a 175-kilometre stretch of the A8 highway connecting Nairobi to Western Kenya and is currently being upgraded from a single carriageway into a modern dual carriageway. The project, launched by President William Ruto in November 2025, is scheduled for completion by June 1, 2027, at an estimated cost of Ksh200 billion under a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) framework.
Mike Macharia, a trustee representing the Federation of Kenya Employers (FKE), emphasized the dual social and financial benefits of the highway investment during recent media engagements. “We are looking at putting about Ksh30 billion into the Rironi-Mau Summit project,” Macharia stated. “It is an investment that will give us returns that we will be proud of. It has a social impact; people will no longer be sleeping on the Nakuru Highway. It will also open up trade.”
The highway corridor currently carries an estimated 20,000 vehicles per day, with traffic projected to grow by four percent annually. The route is notorious for congestion, particularly during holiday periods when traffic snarl-ups can stretch almost five kilometres on both sides, forcing motorists to seek alternative routes. A 2012 IBM Corporation study revealed that Kenya loses Ksh50 million daily due to time wasted in heavy traffic jams.
Public-Private Partnership Structure and NSSF’s Role
The Rironi-Mau Summit expansion has been structured as a complex PPP arrangement involving China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) and NSSF as consortium partners. However, the project’s evolution has been marked by regulatory complexity and strategic restructuring to accommodate Chinese investment restrictions.
Initially conceived as a full-corridor project covering approximately 233 kilometres including both the Nairobi-Nakuru-Mau Summit and Rironi-Maai Mahiu-Naivasha sections, the development was split into two segments after both CRBC-NSSF and a competing bidder cited a strict $1 billion investment cap on Chinese state-owned enterprises that required lengthy internal review for larger commitments.
Under the restructured arrangement approved in November 2025, the CRBC-NSSF consortium will undertake the Nairobi-Naivasha-Gilgil segment (81 kilometres) plus the separate Nairobi-Maai Mahiu-Naivasha section known as A8 South (58 kilometres), totaling 139 kilometres. A separate Chinese consortium will handle the remaining 94 kilometres from Gilgil to Mau Summit.
The financial structure involves Ksh170 billion in total investment for the CRBC-NSSF section, with financing structured at 75% debt and 25% equity. NSSF’s exposure is limited to 40% of the equity portion, translating to an estimated Ksh20-25 billion, rather than funding the entire project cost. The remaining equity is provided by CRBC, with lenders financing the 75% debt component.
According to Business Daily, NSSF will specifically take a Ksh9.59 billion stake on an ownership split of 40% (NSSF) and 60% (CRBC). The consortium partners will invest $743 million (Ksh95.86 billion) in their section through a 25% equity injection of $185.75 million (Ksh23.97 billion) and debt of $557.25 million (Ksh71.89 billion).
Projected Returns and Risk Management
NSSF projects remarkably robust returns from the highway investment, with different reports citing annual dollar returns ranging from 13% to 18% over the 28-30 year concession period. These returns will be generated through toll revenues collected from motorists using the upgraded expressway, creating a long-term, inflation-linked cash flow stream for equity shareholders.
Ronald Nyamosi, NSSF General Manager for Finance and Investments, defended the fund’s participation during a media roundtable in early February, addressing concerns raised particularly on social media about exposing pension savings to large infrastructure developments. “There has been a lot of commentary on social media that does not reflect the structure or risk profile of this investment,” Nyamosi stated. “NSSF is not funding the entire project—our exposure is limited, well-defined and strictly within the equity portion approved under existing regulations.”
Nyamosi emphasized that the fund’s involvement is strictly on the equity side, insulating members from debt-related risks while allowing NSSF to benefit from long-term, predictable returns generated by toll revenues over the life of the concession. The debt portion will be raised by the Chinese partner at concessional rates, further reducing risk exposure for the pension fund.
The toll road model follows a well-established framework where investors recoup costs and realize operating profits through user fees over the concession period. Macharia noted that the road would initially operate as a toll facility to enable the fund to recoup its investment, while emphasizing that “there will be an alternative road for those who do not want to use the toll.”
An estimated 40,000 vehicles currently use the Rironi-Mau Summit corridor daily and are expected to become paying customers once tolling commences. According to government disclosure, toll rates will be determined in line with the National Tolling Policy, with escalation provisions built into the framework.
Importantly, the Ruto administration structured the new contracts to eliminate minimum revenue guarantees, which under the previous cancelled French consortium deal would have required the exchequer to compensate operators if toll collections fell below agreed levels. The absence of minimum revenue guarantees shifts demand risk away from government and onto the private operators, though it also means NSSF and CRBC bear full exposure to traffic volume fluctuations.
NSSF’s Broader Investment Transformation
The Rironi-Mau Summit investment exemplifies NSSF’s strategic pivot toward infrastructure and real estate as core portfolio components, moving beyond the traditional pension fund reliance on Treasury securities and listed equities. This transformation is driven by the need to generate higher returns to match the fund’s rapidly expanding contribution base while meeting long-term pension liabilities.
NSSF CEO David Koross articulated this strategic direction during a February 8, 2026 interview on Citizen TV. “What we have done at NSSF is we are looking at the agility in decision-making,” Koross stated. “We are looking at new investment opportunities that have come up. These investment opportunities yield a better yield.”
The fund’s infrastructure focus extends beyond toll roads to include ambitious real estate developments. Most notably, NSSF has unveiled plans to construct what would be East Africa’s tallest building in Nairobi’s Central Business District—a Ksh30 billion twin tower development at the junction of Uhuru Highway and Kenyatta Avenue.
The NSSF Twin Towers project comprises Tower A rising 60 storeys (260 metres) and Tower B at 35 storeys (140 metres). The development will feature office spaces, a business hotel, serviced apartments, retail outlets, conference facilities, an observation deck on the 56th floor, and parking for over 1,100 vehicles.
Rose Omamo, the trustee representing the Central Organisation of Trade Unions (COTU), described the skyscraper as a strategic move to grow the fund and enhance long-term returns for contributors. “As a Fund, we feel that it is time to contribute to national economic stability, whereby we can have big buildings that can help this fund to grow,” Omamo stated. “When the fund grows, it means the pensioners, the contributors, will have a better payout when they retire.”
The twin towers will transform a Ksh4 billion idle plot that has remained undeveloped for years. CEO Koross explained the commercial logic: “That land has been idle for years and has not been giving contributors any benefit. It is valued at about Ksh4 billion, and our objective is to unlock that value through redevelopment and sell the completed units to investors so the money flows back to the Fund.”
NSSF targets a minimum return of 12% from the twin towers project, with potential upside depending on market conditions. Construction is expected to take about three years, with groundbreaking planned for later in 2026 once all regulatory approvals are finalized. The project will be built by China Road and Bridge Corporation, the same partner involved in the highway development.
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Record Performance and Expanding Asset Base
The aggressive infrastructure push comes as NSSF reported record-breaking performance for the financial year ended June 30, 2025. The fund declared a 17% return on members’ savings, up from 11% in the previous year—the highest interest rate in NSSF’s history.
During the fund’s 8th Annual General Meeting in February 2026, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi praised NSSF for defying a tough economic environment to record one of its strongest performances to date. The fund’s total assets grew to approximately Ksh575 billion, representing growth of over 43% from the previous year.
Member contributions rose by 35% to Ksh84 billion during the period, while investment income more than doubled, delivering a gross return of approximately 22%. Operating costs were maintained at around 1.47%, within statutory limits.
NSSF Chairman David Kariuki attributed the strong performance to disciplined execution of the corporate strategic plan, which focused on improved service delivery, financial sustainability, operational efficiency and organizational resilience. “The Fund is on course towards becoming a trillion shilling fund, while remaining firmly anchored on good governance and accountability,” Kariuki stated.
The jump in returns was largely attributed to higher income from long-term investments, including housing and infrastructure projects, which have increasingly become core portfolio components. The fund currently serves 3.6 million active members and more than 77,000 employers, with growing participation from public servants and informal sector workers through initiatives such as the Haba Haba program.
With assets projected to reach Ksh750 billion by June 2026, NSSF is on track to achieve its ambitious Ksh1 trillion target by 2027, two years ahead of the original schedule.
The NSSF Act and Contribution Growth
The rapid asset accumulation traces directly to implementation of the NSSF Act, 2013, which fundamentally transformed Kenya’s pension landscape by mandating substantially higher contributions. Until 2023, most employees contributed a token Ksh200 per month through NSSF. Over six decades, this modest regime produced just Ksh320 billion in total assets.
In early 2023, the long-dormant NSSF Act finally took effect, compelling both workers and employers to contribute 6% of the employee’s salary—a dramatic increase that has accelerated fund growth exponentially. President Ruto noted during Labour Day celebrations that the higher rate had already generated Ksh280 billion in just 24 months, almost matching the previous six decades of deposits.
The contribution framework operates through a two-tier system. Tier I covers pensionable earnings up to Ksh9,000 (as of February 2026), while Tier II extends to earnings up to Ksh108,000. Both tiers require 6% contributions from employee and employer, creating a total 12% monthly deposit into workers’ retirement accounts.
These limits have been adjusted upward annually since implementation began. In 2023, Tier I was capped at Ksh6,000 and Tier II at Ksh18,000. These rose to Ksh7,000 and Ksh36,000 respectively in 2024, before increasing again in February 2025 to Ksh8,000 for Tier I and Ksh72,000 for Tier II.
The phased increases have created predictable but rising deductions from workers’ pay packets. With the February 2026 rates, annual inflows are projected to cross the Ksh100 billion mark, providing NSSF with unprecedented capital to deploy into infrastructure and real estate investments.
President Ruto has defended the mandatory deductions despite public complaints about reduced take-home pay. “From independence to 2023, we saved Ksh320 billion—that’s over 60 years,” Ruto stated during the Co-operative University installation ceremony in April 2025. “But in just two years, we have saved Ksh280 billion. By the end of this year, we will have doubled what we saved in six decades.”
The president emphasized that Kenya’s savings-to-GDP ratio—currently hovering around 10-12%—must reach 25% in the medium term. He drew comparisons with China, where the savings rate stands at 65%, arguing that higher domestic savings would reduce Kenya’s reliance on external debt and enable more homegrown investment.
Infrastructure Investment Rationale and Comparisons
Trustee Macharia explicitly compared the Rironi-Mau Summit investment to the Nairobi Expressway, which was constructed using Chinese pension funds. “The Nairobi Expressway was constructed using Chinese pension funds and insisted that it was time for Kenya to depend on itself and not China,” Macharia stated, framing the highway investment as both a financial opportunity and an assertion of economic sovereignty.
The Nairobi Expressway, a 27-kilometre elevated toll road connecting Jomo Kenyatta International Airport to Nairobi’s western suburbs, was developed by China Road and Bridge Corporation under a similar PPP framework with Build-Operate-Transfer arrangements. The road generates substantial toll revenues and has significantly reduced travel times on one of Nairobi’s most congested corridors.
NSSF’s infrastructure pivot reflects a broader global trend among pension funds seeking yield-enhancing, inflation-protected assets to match long-dated liabilities. Infrastructure investments offer several attractive characteristics for pension funds: predictable cash flows from regulated or contracted revenue streams, natural inflation protection through price escalation clauses, low correlation with traditional financial assets, and alignment between asset duration and pension payment obligations.
Timothy Kisau, an investment manager, told The Star that NSSF’s decision to invest in road infrastructure “epitomises a strategic push to harness domestic capital for growth-oriented, real-asset investments that deliver both economic value and financial return.”
However, critics have raised concerns about tying workers’ retirement savings to capital-intensive, illiquid infrastructure that may not easily be converted to cash during economic downturns. Infrastructure assets typically cannot be sold quickly without significant value loss, creating potential liquidity mismatches if large numbers of retirees simultaneously seek benefit withdrawals.
Additionally, traffic projections and toll revenue forecasts carry inherent uncertainty. Economic slowdowns could reduce traffic volumes below projections, while competition from alternative routes or modes of transport could impact toll collection rates. The absence of minimum revenue guarantees in the NSSF-CRBC contract means the pension fund bears full exposure to these demand risks.
Governance, Transparency and Regulatory Oversight
The infrastructure investments have generated debate about appropriate governance and risk management for pension funds investing in illiquid, long-dated projects. NSSF has emphasized that investments comply with regulatory requirements under the Retirement Benefits Authority (RBA), which sets investment limits for pension schemes.
Chikumbu, NSSF’s managing director for Growth and Strategy, stressed that governance controls remain paramount. “We don’t do it alone. We do it alongside partners and institutional investors,” Chikumbu told IOL. “And obviously, all of that is governed by risk controls and independent committees that ensure fiduciary standards and controls are adhered to. In this instance, the Competition Commission and regulatory approvals are a really important line of oversight for us.”
The PPP framework itself provides multiple layers of scrutiny. The Rironi-Mau Summit project required approval from the PPP Committee under the National Treasury, which evaluated project development phase submissions and forwarded recommendations. Kenya National Highways Authority (KeNHA) oversees the technical aspects of road design, construction standards and maintenance requirements.
Trustee Omamo addressed public concerns about pension fund security, emphasizing NSSF’s role in promoting national savings culture. “As Kenyans we have a very poor saving culture. It is because we live from hand to mouth, and it is very difficult to save,” Omamo stated. “The only fund where you can save and be sure that your money is safe and when you retire, you can go home with dignity, is NSSF.”
The fund received an unqualified audit opinion for the 2024/25 financial year, reinforcing transparency and accountability. NSSF has also improved service delivery through digitization, reducing benefit payment processing periods to approximately 10 days, down from 89 days previously—a dramatic improvement that addresses long-standing complaints about delayed payouts to retirees.
Regional Context and Development Impact
The Rironi-Mau Summit highway expansion addresses a critical infrastructure bottleneck on Kenya’s Northern Corridor, which serves as the primary trade route connecting Kenya to Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The corridor handles substantial freight traffic servicing East and Central Africa’s landlocked economies, making road efficiency a regional economic imperative.
The upgrade aims to ease traffic congestion and enhance road safety along this vital artery while supporting government targets to construct 6,000 kilometres of roads as part of broader economic development goals. The project directly contributes to KeNHA’s strategic objective of enhancing road infrastructure that meets stakeholder needs while promoting economic growth and regional trade.
Beyond transport efficiency, the highway investment creates substantial employment during construction and operational phases. According to government projections, the project will generate thousands of direct and indirect jobs while stimulating demand for locally produced construction materials including cement, concrete, aggregates and steel.
The initiative also advances Kenya’s strategy of attracting private sector participation in infrastructure development—an increasingly vital approach given fiscal constraints that limit government’s capacity to fund major projects through traditional budgetary allocations. By channeling domestic pension savings into productive infrastructure, Kenya reduces dependence on foreign debt while retaining economic benefits within the country.
Looking Ahead: Balancing Returns, Risk and Development
As NSSF continues its transformation from a conservative, bond-heavy portfolio toward infrastructure-intensive allocations, the fund faces the challenge of balancing multiple, sometimes competing objectives: maximizing returns for contributors, maintaining adequate liquidity to meet benefit withdrawals, managing risks appropriately for a captive savings scheme, and contributing to national economic development.
The 17-18% projected returns from the Rironi-Mau Summit investment significantly exceed yields available from government securities, which currently offer approximately 16-17% on long-dated Treasury bonds. If realized over the multi-decade concession period, such returns would substantially boost retirement savings for millions of Kenyan workers while validating the infrastructure allocation strategy.
However, infrastructure returns materialize slowly over long timeframes, requiring patient capital and sophisticated asset-liability management to ensure the fund can meet near-term benefit obligations while waiting for long-term infrastructure cash flows to mature. NSSF must carefully calibrate its portfolio to maintain sufficient liquid assets—government securities, listed equities, and money market instruments—to cover benefit withdrawals even as it increases illiquid infrastructure holdings.
The fund’s rapid asset growth provides some cushion, as expanding contribution inflows create positive cash flow that can fund benefit payments without requiring asset liquidation. With annual contributions projected to exceed Ksh100 billion, NSSF generates substantial positive operating cash flow that supports both infrastructure investment and benefit payments.
For Kenya’s infrastructure development, NSSF’s emergence as a major domestic institutional investor could prove transformative. The country has historically relied on foreign debt and multilateral development finance to fund major projects, creating debt sustainability challenges and exposing projects to foreign exchange risks. Mobilizing domestic pension savings for infrastructure reduces these vulnerabilities while building local institutional capacity.
The success or failure of the Rironi-Mau Summit and twin towers investments will likely determine NSSF’s future investment trajectory and influence how other Kenyan pension funds approach infrastructure allocation. If the projects deliver projected returns while maintaining appropriate risk management, they could establish a template for domestic institutional investment in productive assets. If they encounter significant challenges—cost overruns, revenue shortfalls, construction delays—they could reinforce conservative approaches centered on traditional securities.
As NSSF marches toward its Ksh1 trillion asset target with an increasingly infrastructure-heavy portfolio, the fund is simultaneously testing a new model of development finance, asserting economic sovereignty through domestic capital mobilization, and placing an unprecedented bet on Kenya’s growth trajectory—with millions of workers’ retirement security riding on the outcome.
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By: Montel Kamau
Serrari Financial Analyst
11th February, 2026
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