Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has announced that the country’s headline inflation rate eased in November 2025 to 14.45 percent, marking a significant milestone in the government’s economic management strategy and representing the mildest inflation reading since October 2020 while falling below President Bola Tinubu’s ambitious target of reducing inflation to 15 percent by year-end.
According to the monthly report published by the NBS on Monday, the Consumer Price Index rose to 130.5 points in November 2025 from 128.9 points in October, reflecting a 1.6-point increase month on month, but the headline inflation rate declined to 14.45 percent year on year, compared with 16.05 percent recorded in October 2025, continuing an eighth consecutive month of slowing price growth that has provided some relief to households after years of punishing price increases.
“The Consumer Price Index rose to 130.5 in November 2025, reflecting a 1.6-point increase from the preceding month (128.9),” the statistical agency stated in its official report. “In November 2025, the Headline inflation rate eased to 14.45 percent relative to the October 2025 headline inflation rate of 16.05 percent. Looking at the movement, the November 2025 Headline inflation rate showed a decrease of 1.6 percent compared to the October 2025 Headline inflation rate,” the NBS said.
Build the future you deserve. Get started with our top-tier Online courses: ACCA, HESI A2, ATI TEAS 7, HESI EXIT, NCLEX-RN, NCLEX-PN, and Financial Literacy. Let Serrari Ed guide your path to success. Enroll today.
Month-on-Month Inflation Accelerates Despite Annual Moderation
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation stood at 1.22 percent in November, higher than the 0.93 percent recorded in October and representing the most in four months, indicating that average prices still increased at a faster pace during the month despite the moderation in annual inflation. This acceleration in monthly price increases suggests that while the year-on-year comparison shows improvement, consumers continued to experience rising costs for goods and services during November itself.
The NBS clarified that on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in November 2025 was 1.22 percent, which was 0.29 percentage points higher than the rate recorded in October 2025 at 0.93 percent. “This means that in November 2025, the rate of increase in the average price level was higher than the rate of increase in the average price level in October 2025,” the statistical agency explained, highlighting the distinction between declining annual inflation and accelerating monthly price pressures.
Impact of CPI Rebasing Exercise
The NBS noted that on a year-on-year basis, headline inflation in November 2025 was 20.15 percentage points lower than the 34.60 percent recorded in November 2024, largely reflecting the effect of the rebasing exercise, with the new base year set at 2024 instead of 2009, representing a methodological change that has generated considerable debate about whether statistical improvements translate to real economic relief for struggling households.
Nigeria rebased its Consumer Price Index in early 2025, bringing the base year closer to the current period from 2009 to 2024, with 2023 as the reference period for expenditure weights. The weight reference period is now 2023, and the price reference period (base year) is 2024, with the updated CPI covering 934 product varieties classified into 13 divisions under the COICOP 2018 framework that provides international standardization for consumption classifications.
The rebasing led to a significant 10.32 percentage point reduction in Nigeria’s reported inflation rate when it was first implemented in January 2025, with headline inflation dropping from 34.80 percent in December 2024 to 24.48 percent in January 2025 under the new methodology. This dramatic statistical adjustment sparked intense discussion among economists and policymakers about the relationship between measurement changes and actual economic conditions experienced by citizens.
According to research by the Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research, Nigeria experienced the most significant drop among comparable countries that recently rebased their inflation measures, with the scale of Nigeria’s 10.32 percentage point reduction being colossal relative to other nations like Kenya (-1.5pp), Ghana (-1.6pp), and Singapore (-0.9pp) that registered smaller adjustments, indicating major revisions in consumption patterns, price structures, and expenditure weights in Nigeria’s case.
Twelve-Month Average Inflation Shows Sharp Slowdown
Data from the report showed that the average CPI for the twelve months ending November 2025 increased by 20.41 percent compared with the average of the preceding twelve months, representing a sharp slowdown from the 32.77 percent recorded in November 2024 and demonstrating sustained deceleration in price pressures over an extended period rather than just a single-month phenomenon.
The twelve-month average provides a more stable measure of inflationary trends by smoothing out monthly volatility and seasonal variations. The 12.36 percentage point decline in the twelve-month average from November 2024 to November 2025 indicates that the moderation in inflation has been persistent and broad-based rather than concentrated in specific months or driven entirely by the base effect of the rebasing exercise.
Food and Beverage Prices Remain Primary Inflation Driver
Food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the largest contributor to headline inflation on a year-on-year basis, accounting for 5.78 percentage points, followed by restaurants and accommodation services at 1.87 percentage points and transport at 1.54 percentage points, with housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels contributing 1.22 percentage points while education services and health accounted for 0.90 and 0.88 percentage points respectively.
At the month-on-month level, food and non-alcoholic beverages drove price increases, contributing 0.49 percentage points, followed by restaurants and accommodation services at 0.16 percentage points and transport at 0.13 percentage points. The continued dominance of food prices in driving inflation reflects Nigeria’s consumption patterns where food expenditure represents a substantial portion of household budgets, particularly for lower-income families who spend disproportionately more on food relative to their incomes.
Food inflation declined sharply to 11.08 percent year-on-year in November 2025, which was 28.85 percentage points lower than 39.93 percent recorded in November 2024, though the NBS attributed the significant decline to changes in the base year used for calculation rather than necessarily reflecting proportional improvements in food affordability for consumers. The massive year-on-year decline in food inflation from nearly 40 percent to just over 11 percent demonstrates the substantial impact of the rebasing methodology on reported figures.
However, on a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in November 2025 was 1.13 percent, which increased by 1.5 percentage points compared to the -0.37 percent recorded in October 2025, indicating that food prices actually accelerated in November after declining in October. The NBS said the increase in food inflation on a month-on-month basis was attributed to increases in average prices of items such as dried tomatoes, cassava tubers, shelled periwinkle, ground pepper, eggs, crayfish, unshelled melon (egusi), oxtail, and fresh onions, among other staple food products commonly consumed across Nigerian households.
The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending November 2025 over the previous twelve-month average was 19.68 percent, which was 18.99 percentage points lower compared with the average annual rate of change recorded in November 2024 at 38.67 percent, demonstrating sustained moderation in food price pressures throughout the year despite month-to-month volatility.
Core Inflation Excluding Volatile Items Remains Elevated
The report indicated that “all items less farm produce and energy” or core inflation stood at 18.04 percent in November 2025 on a year-on-year basis, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce and energy to provide a clearer view of underlying inflation trends driven by demand factors and monetary policy rather than supply shocks. Core inflation remaining above 18 percent despite headline inflation falling to 14.45 percent suggests that non-food price pressures remain significant and persistent.
On a month-on-month basis, the core inflation rate was 1.28 percent in November, which decreased by 0.14 percentage points compared to the 1.42 percent recorded in October 2025, showing some moderation in monthly price increases for non-food, non-energy items. The persistently elevated core inflation rate, which was the lowest since February 2023 but still approaching 18 percent, indicates that inflationary pressures extend well beyond food prices and suggest that monetary policy tightening may need to continue to bring core inflation down to more sustainable levels.
Urban and Rural Inflation Differentials
A breakdown of inflation across locations showed that urban inflation stood at 13.61 percent year-on-year in November 2025, representing a steep decline of 23.49 percentage points from the 37.10 percent recorded in November 2024 and reflecting lower inflation in cities compared to the national average. On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation slowed to 0.95 percent from 1.14 percent in October, while the twelve-month average urban inflation rate eased to 20.80 percent.
In contrast, rural inflation was higher at 15.15 percent year-on-year in November, although this was still 17.12 percentage points lower than the 32.27 percent recorded in the corresponding period of 2024, indicating that rural areas continue to experience higher inflation than urban centers despite both showing significant year-on-year declines. The rural-urban inflation differential reflects varying economic conditions, market structures, and access to goods and services between cities and countryside areas.
Month-on-month rural inflation accelerated sharply to 1.88 percent from 0.45 percent in October, reflecting stronger price pressures in rural areas during November and contrasting with the deceleration seen in urban inflation on a monthly basis. The corresponding twelve-month average for the rural inflation rate in November 2025 was 19.46 percent, which was 11.24 percentage points lower compared to the 30.71 percent recorded in November 2024.
One decision can change your entire career. Take that step with our Online courses in ACCA, HESI A2, ATI TEAS 7, HESI EXIT, NCLEX-RN, NCLEX-PN, and Financial Literacy. Join Serrari Ed and start building your brighter future today.
State-Level Inflation Variations
On a month-on-month basis, inflation increased most in Bayelsa at 6.58 percent, Gombe at 5.11 percent, and Edo at 4.45 percent, while Plateau at -2.54 percent, Delta at -2.38 percent, and Kaduna at -2.24 percent recorded declines, demonstrating significant geographic variation in price movements that reflect local supply conditions, market dynamics, and economic factors.
Year-on-year food inflation was highest in Kogi at 17.83 percent, Ogun at 16.52 percent, and Rivers at 16.11 percent, while Imo at 3.52 percent, Katsina at 3.65 percent, and Akwa Ibom at 4.52 percent recorded the slowest increases. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation rose most in Yobe at 9.52 percent, Katsina at 6.61 percent, and Ondo at 6.04 percent, while declines were recorded in Imo at -6.49 percent, Nasarawa at -5.48 percent, and Enugu at -2.54 percent.
Achievement of Presidential Inflation Target
President Bola Tinubu had declared the Federal Government’s commitment to reducing Nigeria’s inflation rate from 34.6 percent to 15 percent by the end of 2025 during his presentation of the 2025 Appropriation Bill to a joint session of the National Assembly in December 2024. The president stated that “the 2025 budget projects that inflation will decline significantly from the current 34.6 percent to 15 percent by the end of next year,” setting an ambitious target that many economists initially viewed as unrealistic given persistent inflationary pressures.
Tinubu reiterated this commitment in his New Year’s message to Nigerians, emphasizing that “in 2025, our government is committed to intensifying efforts to lower these costs by boosting food production and promoting local manufacturing of essential drugs and other medical supplies. We are resolute in our ambition to reduce inflation from its current high of 34.6 percent to 15 percent,” demonstrating the administration’s prioritization of inflation reduction as a key economic policy objective.
With the November inflation figure of 14.45 percent now falling below the 15 percent target, Nigeria has achieved this goal for the first time in six years where actual inflation has come in below the budgeted estimate, marking what the administration considers a significant policy achievement. President Bola Tinubu announced this target during the 2025 budget presentation, and it has been met ahead of the December deadline, providing vindication for government economic policies despite widespread skepticism from analysts.
Expert Skepticism About Sustainability
However, several prominent economists had expressed doubts about the feasibility of the 15 percent target when it was first announced. Bismarck Rewane, Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company, had stated that the president’s target was aspirational rather than realistic, arguing that “inflation could reduce from approximately 35 percent to somewhere like 27 percent or 25 percent, but a 15 percent rate on inflation is very bullish and aspirational. We deal in the world of reality, and in the world of reality, we see more of 27 percent to 25 percent.”
Economist Biodun Adedipe similarly projected that inflation was not going in the direction of 15 percent as envisioned by the president, instead forecasting 27 percent by the end of 2025. He emphasized that food inflation has been the number one driver of headline inflation and that Nigeria must address issues of food deficit, energy deficit, and manufacturing deficit to achieve inclusive, sustained, and sustainable economic growth.
The federal government had hinged its inflation reduction strategy on enhanced security measures leading to bumper harvests that would drive down food prices, along with the commencement of domestic refining of petroleum products to reduce foreign exchange demand for imports and stabilize the currency. A senior presidency source explained that “the projected decline in inflation in 2025 is attributed to enhanced security measures in 2024 expected to lead to a bumper harvest, driving down food prices and reducing reliance on food imports.”
Rebasing Debate and Cost-of-Living Reality
The achievement of the 15 percent inflation target has been complicated by the fact that it coincides with the implementation of the CPI rebasing exercise. Critics argue that the statistical improvement does not translate to proportional relief for households struggling with high living costs. According to analysis, rebasing is a methodological update that does not directly influence actual price levels, and Nigerians continue to grapple with high living costs despite changes in how inflation is measured.
The updated CPI now includes 960 products, up from 740 in the previous basket, and adjusts the weightings assigned to different categories of goods and services. Notably, food’s weight in the CPI basket has been reduced from 51.8 percent to 40.1 percent, while sectors like housing, transportation, and healthcare now carry greater significance, better reflecting contemporary consumption patterns but also creating statistical effects that reduce measured inflation even when food prices remain problematic.
According to the Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research, while methodological improvements in tracking inflation are essential, policymakers must address the widening gap between statistical improvements and everyday affordability for Nigerians. The institute noted that while the rebasing led to a significant reduction in official inflation rates, the cost of critical services—especially healthcare, transport, and education—continues to rise, disproportionately affecting families who depend on private providers.
Private Sector and Business Community Reactions
The organised private sector welcomed the slowdown in inflation, noting that it would boost consumer purchasing power and support business activity. However, they urged the Federal Government to provide targeted credit facilities to micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) to ensure inclusive economic benefits and enable small businesses to capitalize on the improving macroeconomic environment.
Dr. Femi Egbesola, President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria (ASBON), emphasized that “the Nigerian economy, particularly MSMEs, still needs support, especially access to funding through government intervention. Targeted credit facilities are critical to ensure small businesses can compete and grow,” highlighting that statistical improvements in inflation must be accompanied by real access to capital for businesses to translate into economic expansion.
Leye Kupoluyi, President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), noted that the moderation in inflation would leave more money in the pockets of Nigerians, increasing consumption and supporting business activity. This perspective reflects business community optimism that reduced inflation can stimulate economic activity by enhancing real purchasing power and consumer confidence.
Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprises (CPPE), told Daily Trust that while the figure represents good development, there is need to look at critical areas as affordability is still an issue for many Nigerian households despite the statistical improvement in inflation rates, suggesting that policy focus should extend beyond the headline number to address structural factors affecting living standards.
Economic Context and Policy Implications
When President Tinubu assumed office in May 2023, Nigeria’s inflation rate was 22.41 percent according to official statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics. The inflation rate subsequently rose astronomically to 34.6 percent by November 2024, a development that economic experts attributed to Tinubu’s twin policies of petrol subsidy removal and unification of the foreign exchange rates implemented shortly after taking office.
The subsidy removal and exchange rate unification, while necessary structural reforms according to most economists, generated immediate inflationary pressures as fuel prices surged and the naira depreciated sharply against major currencies. These policy shocks rippled through the entire economy, affecting transportation costs, production expenses, and the prices of imported goods, contributing to the surge in headline inflation to multi-decade highs by late 2024.
However, President Tinubu emphasized progress made in key economic areas during his New Year address, noting that fuel prices have gradually decreased following the commencement of domestic refining operations, Nigeria recorded foreign trade surpluses in three consecutive quarters, foreign reserves have risen, and the naira has strengthened against the US dollar bringing greater stability. The president also lauded the record growth of the stock market which generated trillions of naira in wealth and a surge in foreign investment reflecting renewed global confidence in Nigeria’s economic policies.
Monetary Policy Considerations
The Central Bank of Nigeria, during its first Monetary Policy Committee meeting for 2025, decided to maintain the Monetary Policy Rate at 27.59 percent, marking the first time in three years that the committee paused interest rate hikes. CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso cited the new rebased CPI figures as one of the reasons the committee arrived at the decision to retain the MPR, stating that the new base year for the CPI and the reconstituted consumption basket represent current economic realities.
The decision to pause rate hikes suggests that monetary policymakers view the inflation trajectory as sufficiently under control to warrant a break from the aggressive tightening cycle that had characterized previous meetings. However, Cardoso noted that food inflation remained a concern, though he expressed optimism that as the government works to enhance food security in producing communities along with other measures to increase food supply, food prices were expected to continue moderating.
Economic analysts suggest that if sustained inflation decline continues, the CBN may enable a dovish pivot to stimulate economic growth. According to Agusto & Co. analysis, a sustained decline in inflation may create room for monetary policy easing to support growth, while conversely, stagnation or upward creep in prices would likely prolong tight monetary conditions. This balancing act underscores the MPC’s prioritization of price stability over premature easing, with structural reforms critical to anchoring long-term disinflation.
Challenges and Outlook
Despite the achievement of the 15 percent inflation target, significant challenges remain for Nigerian households and policymakers. The rebasing exercise, while improving statistical accuracy and international comparability, has created a disconnect between official inflation figures and the lived experiences of many Nigerians who continue to struggle with high costs for food, transportation, housing, and other essentials.
The substantial difference between core inflation at 18.04 percent and headline inflation at 14.45 percent indicates that while food prices have moderated significantly—partly due to improved harvests and the rebasing methodology—non-food price pressures remain elevated. This suggests that monetary policy may need to remain relatively tight to prevent inflation from rebounding, particularly as monthly inflation rates in November actually accelerated compared to October.
Looking ahead, the sustainability of single-digit food inflation will depend critically on security conditions in agricultural regions, weather patterns affecting crop yields, foreign exchange stability affecting import costs, and infrastructure development enabling efficient distribution of agricultural products. Any deterioration in these factors could quickly reverse the gains made in controlling food inflation.
The government’s commitment to boosting domestic food production, promoting local manufacturing of essential drugs and medical supplies, and continuing structural economic reforms will be tested in 2025 as it seeks to maintain inflation within the targeted range while addressing the underlying factors that have historically driven price pressures in Africa’s largest economy.
For millions of Nigerian households, the critical question remains whether statistical improvements in inflation measurement will translate into tangible improvements in purchasing power, living standards, and economic opportunities—or whether the disconnect between official statistics and daily economic reality will persist despite the achievement of numerical policy targets.
Ready to take your career to the next level? Join our Online courses: ACCA, HESI A2, ATI TEAS 7 , HESI EXIT , NCLEX – RN and NCLEX – PN, Financial Literacy!🌟 Dive into a world of opportunities and empower yourself for success. Explore more at Serrari Ed and start your exciting journey today! ✨
Track GDP, Inflation and Central Bank rates for top African markets with Serrari’s comparator tool.
See today’s Treasury bonds and Money market funds movement across financial service providers in Kenya, using Serrari’s comparator tools.
photo source: Google
By: Montel Kamau
Serrari Financial Analyst
17th December, 2025
Article, Financial and News Disclaimer
The Value of a Financial Advisor
While this article offers valuable insights, it is essential to recognize that personal finance can be highly complex and unique to each individual. A financial advisor provides professional expertise and personalized guidance to help you make well-informed decisions tailored to your specific circumstances and goals.
Beyond offering knowledge, a financial advisor serves as a trusted partner to help you stay disciplined, avoid common pitfalls, and remain focused on your long-term objectives. Their perspective and experience can complement your own efforts, enhancing your financial well-being and ensuring a more confident approach to managing your finances.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers are encouraged to consult a licensed financial advisor to obtain guidance specific to their financial situation.
Article and News Disclaimer
The information provided on www.serrarigroup.com is for general informational purposes only. While we strive to keep the information up to date and accurate, we make no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, about the completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability, or availability with respect to the website or the information, products, services, or related graphics contained on the website for any purpose. Any reliance you place on such information is therefore strictly at your own risk.
www.serrarigroup.com is not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the results obtained from the use of this information. All information on the website is provided on an as-is basis, with no guarantee of completeness, accuracy, timeliness, or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and without warranty of any kind, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of performance, merchantability, and fitness for a particular purpose.
In no event will www.serrarigroup.com be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information provided on the website or for any consequential, special, or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages.
The articles, news, and information presented on www.serrarigroup.com reflect the opinions of the respective authors and contributors and do not necessarily represent the views of the website or its management. Any views or opinions expressed are solely those of the individual authors and do not represent the website's views or opinions as a whole.
The content on www.serrarigroup.com may include links to external websites, which are provided for convenience and informational purposes only. We have no control over the nature, content, and availability of those sites. The inclusion of any links does not necessarily imply a recommendation or endorsement of the views expressed within them.
Every effort is made to keep the website up and running smoothly. However, www.serrarigroup.com takes no responsibility for, and will not be liable for, the website being temporarily unavailable due to technical issues beyond our control.
Please note that laws, regulations, and information can change rapidly, and we advise you to conduct further research and seek professional advice when necessary.
By using www.serrarigroup.com, you agree to this disclaimer and its terms. If you do not agree with this disclaimer, please do not use the website.
www.serrarigroup.com, reserves the right to update, modify, or remove any part of this disclaimer without prior notice. It is your responsibility to review this disclaimer periodically for changes.
Serrari Group 2025
