Nigeria Partners Kenya to Tap $23.29 Billion Global Avocado Market: Strategic Alliance Aims to Transform “Green Gold” Industry

Nigeria is forging a strategic partnership with Kenya to break into the booming global avocado market, a sector projected to swell to $23.29 billion by 2029, as the collaboration aims to empower Nigerian farmers and help the country tap into the lucrative international trade of what’s often called “green gold.”

The partnership between Nigeria and Kenya represents a pivotal moment for African agricultural cooperation, as both nations seek to capitalize on the unprecedented growth in global demand for avocados. With the worldwide avocado market now exceeding $20 billion and continuing its upward trajectory, this collaboration positions Nigeria to transform from a minor player to a potential major force in international avocado trade.

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Global Market Dynamics Drive Unprecedented Growth

The global avocado industry has experienced remarkable expansion, with RaboResearch reporting that the market value now exceeds USD 20 billion. This represents a dramatic increase from just over $13 billion in 2021, driven by increasing production and diversification of exporting countries. According to leading market analyst David Magaña from RaboResearch, “three main regions representing 88 per cent of the market value: Latin America, North America, and Europe.”

The market trajectory shows no signs of slowing, with various research institutions projecting different growth scenarios. Mordor Intelligence forecasts the market will reach $26.54 billion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3%. More conservative estimates suggest $23.29 billion by 2029, while other projections indicate the market could hit $26.710 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 5.76%.

Global avocado exports are expected to surpass 3 million metric tons by 2026/27, a significant increase from 1 million metric tons in 2012/13. This massive growth results from increasing exports from the current top three avocado exporters—Mexico, Peru, and Colombia—accounting for about two-thirds of global exports.

Kenya’s Success Story: A Model for Nigerian Expansion

Kenya has firmly established itself as Africa’s leading avocado exporter and the world’s sixth-largest producer. In 2021, Kenya’s avocado output reached 417,000 metric tonnes, a figure that has doubled over the last five years. The country’s success has been built on strategic variety selection, with Hass, Fuerte, Pinkerton, and Jumbo being the primary varieties shipped globally.

Kenya’s avocado exports reached 16,000 metric tons in the first eight months of 2024, up from 14,000 metric tons during the same period in 2023. The Fresh Produce Exporters Association of Kenya attributed this increase to more land being dedicated to avocado farming, as farmers aim to benefit from the growing horticultural trade.

The economic impact has been substantial. Kenya netted KSH 18 billion from avocado exports in 2023, with exports jumping 19% to about 123,000 metric tonnes. This represents a significant increase from KSH 16 billion earned from about 103,000 tonnes in 2022. The country’s main export destinations include the European Union (Netherlands, France, Spain, the UK, and Germany), the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Russia.

Kenya’s avocado industry success has been driven by several factors, including government incentives such as provision of high-quality seedlings, farmer training programs, and access to subsidized inputs. The country has also benefited from strategic partnerships with international buyers and adherence to strict quality standards required for global markets.

Nigeria’s Untapped Agricultural Potential

Despite Nigeria’s immense agricultural potential, the country has largely remained on the sidelines of the global avocado boom. The President of the Avocado Society of Nigeria (ASN), Ambassador Adeniyi Sola-Bunmi, indicated that the country’s avocado sector is currently underdeveloped and focused on local consumption, despite possessing favorable climatic conditions.

Nigeria’s current avocado production is dominated by small-scale farmers who own less than two hectares, according to industry estimates. The ASN has identified approximately 30 to 35 hectares currently under avocado production in Nigeria, a minuscule amount compared to the country’s agricultural potential. This represents a significant opportunity gap, particularly given that Nigeria produces over 200,000 metric tons of avocados annually but primarily for domestic consumption.

Research indicates that Nigeria has the potential to generate over N12 billion annually if stakeholders actively explore avocado cultivation for industrial use and exportation. Studies suggest that the development of avocado for industrial utilization and export has the capacity of generating about 5 billion naira on an annual basis, despite the long existence of avocado in the country.

Strategic Partnership Framework and Hass Variety Introduction

The collaboration between Nigeria and Kenya centers on addressing key challenges that have historically limited Nigeria’s participation in the global avocado trade. One of the primary obstacles has been the misconception that avocado fruit has a long gestation period before harvest, which has discouraged large-scale investment.

To counter this challenge, the ASN is working with its Kenyan partners to introduce viable Hass avocado seedlings to Nigeria. The Hass variety represents a game-changer because it can thrive in Nigeria’s tropical climate and reach maturity in as little as three years, a stark contrast to the longer fruiting periods of local varieties.

The Hass avocado’s adaptability to Nigeria’s tropical climate makes it particularly attractive for commercial cultivation. Nigeria has a conducive climate for avocado farming, with the Southern and Western parts of the country being the most suitable for avocado cultivation. The country’s tropical conditions provide perfect growing environments for Hass avocados, with abundant underground water sources enabling year-round production.

Sola-Bunmi projected that the Hass variety alone has the potential to generate over N12 billion annually for Nigeria’s economy. A growing number of farmers, particularly ASN members, have already begun cultivating Hass avocados due to their higher price and yields compared to local varieties.

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Infrastructure Development and Quality Standards

Beyond introducing new varieties, the ASN is focused on creating the necessary infrastructure for producing export-grade avocados that meet international standards. The association is establishing large commercial Hass avocado farms for its members across several states, including Imo, Ogun, Abia, Enugu, Ebonyi, Edo, Akwa Ibom, Delta, Cross Rivers, and Oyo.

A crucial component of this infrastructure development is the establishment of quality control measures. The ASN has created a demonstration farm in Ogun State, which includes an international nursery center in Abeokuta. This facility will produce seedlings and plants that meet international protocols and ensure Nigerian avocados meet the stringent quality standards required for global markets, such as specific fumigation or cold treatments to control pests.

The emphasis on quality control is particularly important given Kenya’s experience. Kenya’s avocado market in the Middle-East was hit in 2018 following export of low-quality crop, with prices dropping significantly when immature fruit entered the market. This experience underscores the importance of maintaining strict quality standards to preserve market reputation and pricing power.

International Networking and Knowledge Transfer

The partnership has been formalized through international platforms that facilitate knowledge sharing and networking. The recent 5th International Africa Avocado Congress in Nairobi, Kenya, provided a crucial platform for the ASN to share knowledge and network with key players in the African avocado industry. This meeting solidified the partnership with Kenya and set the stage for Nigeria’s emergence as a major player in the global avocado trade.

The congress brought together industry experts, policymakers, and farmers from across Africa to discuss best practices, market trends, and technological innovations in avocado production. For Nigeria, participation in such forums represents an important step toward integrating into the broader African and global avocado value chains.

The knowledge transfer component of the partnership extends beyond variety introduction to include training in modern agricultural practices, post-harvest handling, and export procedures. Kenyan expertise in areas such as irrigation management, pest control, and quality assurance will be crucial for Nigerian farmers seeking to enter export markets.

Market Access and Export Potential

Nigeria’s entry into the global avocado market comes at an opportune time, as demand continues to outpace supply in key markets. European consumption has shown particularly strong growth, with France consuming 160,000 tonnes in 2024, marking a 6.67% increase year-on-year. Germany saw consumption jump from 110,000 tonnes in 2023 to 120,000 tonnes in 2024, while overall avocado sales volume across the European continent rose by 13.2%.

The escalating demand underscores Europe’s reliance on imports, as climatic conditions and water resource constraints limit large-scale domestic production. This creates opportunities for new suppliers like Nigeria to enter the market, particularly if they can demonstrate consistent quality and reliable supply chains.

Current Nigerian avocado imports provide insight into existing market dynamics. According to market research, in value terms, the Netherlands constituted the largest supplier of avocados to Nigeria, comprising 83% of total imports, while Kenya held the second position with a 10% share. This suggests that Nigeria already has some familiarity with Kenyan avocado quality and could potentially reverse this trade flow through domestic production.

Challenges and Strategic Solutions

Despite the promising outlook, several challenges must be addressed for the Nigeria-Kenya partnership to achieve its full potential. Historical constraints to avocado production in Nigeria include lack of awareness of benefits, limited access to quality planting materials, inadequate farmer training, and absence of comprehensive agricultural extension approaches.

The partnership seeks to address these challenges through a multi-pronged approach. The “Kenya model” that encouraged farmers to start small has proven successful and is being adapted for Nigerian conditions. This approach allows farmers to begin with as few as three to five trees, reducing initial investment barriers while building experience and confidence.

Water management represents another critical consideration, particularly given global concerns about avocado water consumption. Nigeria’s abundant underground water sources provide an advantage, but sustainable irrigation practices will be essential for long-term success. Lessons from Kenya’s experience with drought-tolerant cultivation techniques and efficient irrigation systems will be valuable.

Post-harvest handling and cold chain logistics present additional challenges that require systematic solutions. The establishment of proper storage facilities, packaging centers, and transportation networks will be crucial for maintaining fruit quality from farm to export markets.

Economic Impact and Job Creation Potential

The economic implications of successful avocado sector development extend far beyond direct farming revenues. Industry analysis suggests that avocado farming requires low-cost input and low maintenance, making it particularly attractive for smallholder farmers. The sector’s labor-intensive nature also creates significant employment opportunities across the value chain.

Conservative estimates suggest that achieving even a fraction of Kenya’s export levels could generate substantial foreign exchange earnings for Nigeria. With Kenya earning approximately $159 million from avocado exports in 2024, Nigeria’s much larger agricultural land base and population suggest the potential for even greater economic impact.

The ripple effects extend to related industries, including packaging, transportation, logistics, and financial services. Development of export-oriented avocado production could also stimulate investment in rural infrastructure, including roads, storage facilities, and processing plants.

Regional Integration and African Trade

The Nigeria-Kenya partnership represents a broader trend toward increased South-South cooperation and regional integration within Africa. As African nations seek to diversify their agricultural exports and reduce dependence on traditional commodity exports, partnerships like this demonstrate the potential for knowledge sharing and technology transfer between African countries.

The collaboration also aligns with African Union initiatives to boost intra-African trade and develop regional value chains. By leveraging Kenya’s established position in global avocado markets and Nigeria’s vast agricultural potential, the partnership could serve as a model for other agricultural collaborations across the continent.

Success in this venture could encourage similar partnerships in other high-value agricultural commodities, potentially transforming Africa’s position in global agricultural trade from primarily raw commodity exporters to producers of premium, value-added products.

Future Outlook and Growth Projections

Looking ahead, the Nigeria-Kenya avocado partnership is positioned to benefit from several favorable trends. Global health consciousness continues to drive demand for nutrient-dense foods like avocados, while supply chain diversification efforts by major importers create opportunities for new suppliers.

Industry projections suggest that by the end of the decade, about 30 countries will be exporting more than 5,000 metric tons per year, indicating significant opportunities for countries like Nigeria to establish meaningful market positions.

The partnership’s success will likely depend on maintaining focus on quality, sustainability, and market responsiveness. As Rabobank notes, “amid this rise of new suppliers, seasonal oversupply in some markets is a concern that will require continued demand creation and marketing strategies.”

For Nigeria, achieving ASN’s goal of becoming “among the top 10 in Africa” within the avocado sector appears increasingly achievable with proper execution of the Kenya partnership model. The combination of Nigeria’s agricultural potential, Kenya’s proven expertise, and growing global demand creates a favorable environment for transformative growth in Nigeria’s avocado sector.

As both nations work together to unlock the potential of their agricultural sectors, the Nigeria-Kenya avocado partnership stands as a testament to the power of South-South cooperation in addressing shared development challenges while capitalizing on emerging global market opportunities.

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By: Montel Kamau

Serrari Financial Analyst

8th September, 2025