In a positive turn of events, South Africa’s inflation has taken a steep plunge, landing within the central bank’s target range for the first time in over a year. According to official data released by the national statistics agency StatsSA on Wednesday, annual consumer price inflation fell to 5.4 percent in June, down from 6.3 percent in May. This sharp decline marks the lowest reading in 20 months, reflecting a significant boost for consumers and the economy at large.
The primary contributors to this welcome decrease were price drops in essential categories. Notably, food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation slowed down to 11 percent from a high of 14 percent recorded in March. Additionally, prices of oils and fats have been on a downward trajectory for ten consecutive months, further easing the cost of living for South African citizens.
However, while food costs witnessed a reduction, alcoholic beverages and tobacco experienced a slight uptick, with prices rising to 6.1 percent in June compared to 5.9 percent in May. Nevertheless, these minor fluctuations have not deterred the overall positive trend of the inflation rate moving back into the target range.
One significant factor contributing to the inflation drop was the substantial decrease in transport inflation, which fell from 7.0 percent in May to a mere 1.8 percent in June. The main driver behind this decline was softer fuel prices, offering relief to consumers grappling with rising energy costs.
The encouraging inflation figures come at a crucial time when policymakers worldwide are combating elevated inflationary pressures stemming from factors like surging energy and food prices, triggered in part by geopolitical events like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In response to the inflationary surge, South Africa’s central bank had previously raised its main interest rate to 8.25 percent, marking a 14-year high, in May. However, the recent decline in inflation, along with other supporting factors such as a recovery in the rand, has led experts to predict that the Reserve Bank will maintain interest rates unchanged during the upcoming meeting. This decision aims to strike a balance between stimulating economic growth and managing inflationary risks.
Looking ahead, economists remain optimistic about the inflation trajectory in the coming months. According to Chief Economist at Investec, Annabel Bishop, inflation is expected to ease significantly in June and could potentially fall towards 5.5 percent, well within the Reserve Bank’s inflation target range of 3 to 6 percent. This optimistic forecast, if realized, would mark the first time South Africa’s inflation has fallen back within the target range after experiencing persistently high inflation in recent years.
However, economists also caution about potential base effects, which could lead to inflationary fluctuations later in the year. Regardless, the recent positive developments in inflation rates provide some much-needed breathing space for policymakers and consumers alike, fostering hopes for continued economic stability and growth in South Africa.
By: Montel Kamau
Serrari Financial Analyst
19th July, 2023
photo source:Google
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