India faces limited direct impact from a full Russian oil embargo with $5B extra import costs, report shows

A recent report by Bank of Baroda has brought into sharp focus the complex dynamics of the global energy market, suggesting that while the global economy could face significant headwinds from a potential full embargo on Russian oil exports, India’s direct exposure remains surprisingly limited. The analysis estimates that India’s additional oil import expenditure would be around $5 billion annually, a manageable figure within the country’s vast trade operations. This position highlights India’s strategic success in navigating a volatile geopolitical landscape, yet it also underscores a looming risk for the broader international community.

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The report’s findings come at a critical juncture. The geopolitical conflict that began in 2022 has fundamentally reshaped global energy flows. Prior to 2021-22, Russia was a marginal player in India’s oil supply chain, providing a negligible share of its crude imports. However, in a dramatic pivot, Moscow emerged as India’s single largest oil supplier by 2024-25, a shift driven by the availability of heavily discounted Russian crude as Western nations moved to impose sanctions. This strategic realignment has been a cornerstone of India’s energy security policy, but it is now facing new challenges, including the threat of secondary tariffs from the United States.

The Geopolitical Backdrop and India’s Strategic Pivot

The catalyst for this global energy market upheaval was Russia’s military action, which led to a series of coordinated sanctions from Western powers, including the G7 and the European Union. These sanctions, designed to cripple Russia’s ability to fund its war efforts, included a price cap on Russian oil at $60 per barrel and an embargo on seaborne imports by the EU and the UK. The goal was to limit Russia’s oil revenues while preventing a catastrophic global price spike by keeping Russian oil on the market, albeit at a lower price.

In this environment, India, as the world’s third-largest oil consumer, saw an opportunity. With its traditional suppliers—primarily from the Middle East—maintaining their market-based pricing, the deeply discounted Russian crude presented an economic windfall. Indian refiners, both public and private, swiftly ramped up their purchases. This move was not just a commercial decision; it was a strategic one aimed at ensuring India’s energy security and curbing domestic inflationary pressures. By securing a stable and affordable supply, India was able to insulate its economy to a certain extent from the wild swings in global oil prices.

The shift was monumental. From a near-zero share, Russia’s contribution to India’s total crude imports skyrocketed to over 35% in fiscal year (FY) 2025, with India importing a staggering 88 million metric tonnes (MMT). This made India a critical market for Russian energy, helping Moscow to mitigate the economic impact of Western sanctions. For India, it was a move that embodied its policy of “strategic autonomy,” a foreign policy doctrine that prioritizes national interests over alignment with any single power bloc.

An In-Depth Look at India’s Import Basket

While Russia has become the dominant supplier, India’s energy import strategy remains highly diversified. The Bank of Baroda report and other analyses paint a clear picture of India’s import basket in 2024-25:

• Russia: Leading the pack, with its share rising dramatically.
• Iraq: A long-standing partner, accounting for approximately 19% of imports. Iraqi crude, particularly Basrah, remains a staple for many Indian refineries due to its quality and consistent supply.
• Saudi Arabia: Still a major source, contributing about 14%. Saudi Arabia has historically been one of India’s most reliable suppliers.
• United Arab Emirates (UAE): With a share of around 10%, the UAE continues to be a key partner.
• Others: The remaining portion of imports comes from a wide array of other countries, including the United States, Kuwait, Nigeria, and Brazil.

This diversification is a key strength for India. It allows the country to switch between suppliers based on price and availability. The report notes that prices varied significantly, with Iraqi oil averaging $76.83 per barrel and Russian oil at $78.39 per barrel in 2024-25, both slightly below India’s overall import average. In June 2025, India’s average import cost was a remarkably low $69 per barrel, with a number of suppliers, including Russia, Iraq, and Kuwait, offering crude below the $70 mark. This is a testament to India’s bargaining power and its ability to secure advantageous deals.

The volume of these imports is immense. In 2024-25, India imported 244 million tonnes of crude, equivalent to approximately 1.8 billion barrels. This vast scale means that even a small change in price can have a significant financial impact. The report calculates that every $1 increase in the price of a barrel of oil adds about $1.8 billion to India’s annual import costs.

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India’s Limited Economic Exposure: A Closer Examination

The Bank of Baroda report’s central finding is that India’s exposure to a full Russian oil disruption is limited to an annual increase of around $5 billion. This figure is derived from the current price difference between Russian crude and other alternatives. If a complete embargo were to be imposed, India would have to turn to more expensive suppliers, primarily from the Middle East.

However, a $5 billion increase in import costs, while not insignificant, is considered “manageable” by the report. To put this in perspective, India’s total imports of goods stood at a massive $720 billion in 2024-25. The additional $5 billion represents less than 1% of this total, a figure that the country’s robust economy is well-equipped to absorb.

Furthermore, India has several built-in mechanisms to cushion the blow of such a price shock. Its strategic petroleum reserves provide a buffer, and its state-owned oil companies have long-standing contracts with a wide range of suppliers. The recent threat of secondary tariffs from the US, for example, has already prompted India to start considering a shift back towards traditional West Asian suppliers, further diversifying its options and demonstrating its adaptability.

The Looming Global Risk: A Much Bigger Problem

While India’s position is relatively secure, the report makes it clear that a full embargo on Russian oil would create a much “greater problem” for the world economy. The stakes are considerably higher on a global scale. Russia is not just a major player; it accounts for roughly 10% of the world’s total oil supply. Removing such a large volume of crude from the market would inevitably lead to a supply shock.

The report suggests that such a scenario could temporarily push global oil prices above $80 per barrel. This is not just a theoretical concern; it has immediate and widespread consequences. Higher oil prices translate directly into higher costs for consumers and businesses everywhere. Inflation would accelerate, particularly in countries heavily reliant on oil imports for transportation and industrial production. Developing nations, already grappling with high debt and economic instability, would be particularly vulnerable.

A sustained period of high oil prices could trigger a global economic slowdown or even a recession. The price shock would strain corporate balance sheets, dampen consumer spending, and force central banks to raise interest rates to combat inflation, further slowing economic growth. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has repeatedly highlighted that geopolitical tensions are a primary driver of market volatility, and a full embargo on Russian oil would represent the most significant supply-side shock since the conflict began.

The Role of Alternative Supplies and Future Outlook

The report’s projection of a temporary price spike above $80 per barrel is based on the assumption that it would take time for alternative supplies to be secured. In such a crisis, the world would look to other major producers to fill the gap. The OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia, has a considerable amount of spare production capacity. However, bringing this capacity online and shipping it to global markets takes time.

Moreover, the willingness of OPEC+ to ramp up production to offset a Russian shortfall is not guaranteed. The alliance’s decisions are often driven by a complex interplay of economic interests and political considerations. In the past, OPEC+ has shown a preference for maintaining market stability, which may or may not align with the needs of Western consumers.

Looking ahead, the long-term solution to such energy vulnerabilities lies in a fundamental shift towards renewable energy sources. India, for its part, is aggressively pursuing its green energy transition, with ambitious targets for solar and wind power. However, for the foreseeable future, oil will remain a critical component of its energy mix. This makes a diversified and flexible import strategy essential for national security and economic stability.

The current situation with Russia serves as a powerful case study in the importance of not putting all your eggs in one basket. India’s ability to pivot to new suppliers, and to consider its options as the geopolitical landscape evolves, is its greatest strength. While a global oil crisis would be deeply concerning, India’s strategic foresight has positioned it to weather the storm with a degree of resilience that many other nations may envy.

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By: Montel Kamau

Serrari Financial Analyst

14th August, 2025