Hours into his second term as U.S. President, Donald Trump issued a series of executive orders that have sparked widespread debate regarding their global implications, particularly in Africa and specifically in Kenya. These orders, which focus on foreign aid, climate policy, and immigration, could significantly reshape Kenya’s economic and geopolitical ties with the United States.

Suspension of Foreign Aid: A Major Concern for Kenya

One of President Trump’s most consequential executive orders involves the suspension of new foreign aid for 90 days. This suspension is aimed at reviewing existing aid policies to ensure they align with U.S. foreign policy interests. The order argues that current aid programs may contradict the nation’s values and do not serve its strategic goals.

Kenya’s Reliance on U.S. Aid

Kenya has long been a major recipient of U.S. foreign aid, with the Aid Data Network estimating that the U.S. contributes approximately $1.68 billion annually to Kenya’s economy. Of this, around $1 billion is direct aid, supporting sectors such as healthcare, education, and security.

The suspension of new aid could have profound consequences for Kenya’s economy and development programs. Key areas likely to be affected include:

1. Healthcare Programs:
   • The U.S. has been a major supporter of healthcare initiatives in Kenya, particularly through PEPFAR (the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief) and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria. A reduction in funding could disrupt these critical programs, putting millions of lives at risk.
2. Education Initiatives:
   • U.S. aid has funded several educational programs in Kenya, including scholarships, teacher training, and infrastructure development. The suspension of aid may stall ongoing projects, negatively impacting access to quality education.
3. Security and Counterterrorism:
   • Kenya plays a pivotal role in regional security, particularly in combating terrorism in East Africa. The U.S. has historically provided military aid and training to support these efforts. A suspension could weaken Kenya’s capacity to address security threats, including those posed by Al-Shabaab.

Expert Opinions on the Suspension

Foreign policy analysts remain divided on the potential long-term impact of Trump’s aid suspension.

• Prof. Macharia Munene, a foreign policy analyst, suggested that the U.S. would likely prioritize aid programs with significant economic or strategic returns.
• Gordon K’acholla, another expert, highlighted the possibility of Trump renegotiating economic agreements that were deprioritized under the Biden administration, such as the Kenya-U.S. Free Trade Agreement.

Climate Policy Reversal and its Effects on Kenya

Another executive order signed by President Trump directs the U.S. to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement for the second time. This decision signals a renewed focus on fossil fuel production, with Trump emphasizing, “We shall drill, baby, drill.”

Implications for Kenya and Africa

The decision has far-reaching implications for Kenya, which has been a vocal advocate for global climate action:

1. Reduced Climate Funding:
   • Under the Biden administration, Kenya received significant climate-related funding to support renewable energy projects and climate resilience programs. A withdrawal from the Paris Agreement may result in reduced financial support, jeopardizing these initiatives.
2. Fossil Fuel Exploration:
   • Trump’s pro-fossil fuel stance contrasts sharply with Kenya’s focus on transitioning to renewable energy. Kenya has been a leader in geothermal and wind energy production in Africa. The U.S. withdrawal could slow global momentum toward clean energy, indirectly affecting Kenya’s renewable energy ambitions.
3. Global South Concerns:
   • “The global world is moving away from fossil fuels, but here we have Trump saying we will drill. That should worry the entire globe, particularly the global south,” said K’acholla.

Immigration Policies and Kenyan Diaspora

Trump’s executive orders also include stringent immigration policies, which have raised concerns among immigrants in the United States, including Kenyans.

End of Birthright Citizenship

The president signed an order stating that the U.S. would no longer recognize birthright citizenship for children born to illegal immigrants. This policy, if implemented, would mark a significant departure from constitutional protections.

• “We shall ensure millions of people go back to their land of origin,” Trump declared.
• However, Prof. Macharia Munene dismissed the feasibility of this policy, arguing that no judge would support such a measure given its constitutional implications.

Crackdown on Visa Violations

Kenyan immigrants who overstayed their visas or violated immigration laws could face deportation under the new policies. While it remains unclear how these measures will be enforced, they have created anxiety among the Kenyan diaspora in the U.S.

Trade and Economic Agreements

The Trump administration is expected to revisit agreements signed during Joe Biden’s presidency, including infrastructure development deals and Kenya’s designation as a Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA).

Kenya-U.S. Free Trade Agreement

Negotiations for a free trade agreement (FTA) between Kenya and the U.S. were sidelined under Biden. Analysts believe Trump may prioritize this agreement to strengthen economic ties while ensuring it aligns with U.S. interests.

Investment and Trade Opportunities

Kenya is a strategic economic partner for the U.S., serving as a gateway to East Africa. Areas of potential collaboration include:

1. Agriculture: Kenya could benefit from increased access to U.S. markets for its agricultural exports.
2. Technology and Innovation: Partnerships in digital innovation and technology transfer could drive economic growth in Kenya.
3. Infrastructure Development: Reviving stalled projects could enhance Kenya’s transportation and energy infrastructure.

Geopolitical Ramifications

Trump’s executive orders may also impact Kenya’s broader geopolitical strategy:

1. Shift in Alliances:
   • Reduced U.S. support could push Kenya to strengthen ties with other global powers, including China and the European Union.
2. Regional Influence:
   • As a regional leader, Kenya’s ability to advocate for African interests on the global stage may be diminished if U.S. engagement decreases.

Conclusion: Navigating a New Chapter in Kenya-U.S. Relations

President Donald Trump’s executive orders mark a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy, with implications that extend far beyond America’s borders. For Kenya, these changes present both challenges and opportunities.

While the suspension of aid and the withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement pose immediate risks, they also highlight the need for Kenya to diversify its economic partnerships and strengthen its self-reliance.

As the global landscape evolves, Kenya must navigate this new chapter with resilience and strategic foresight, ensuring that its national interests remain safeguarded in an increasingly uncertain world.

Ready to take your career to the next level? Join our dynamic courses: ACCA, HESI A2, ATI TEAS 7 , HESI EXIT  , NCLEX – RN and NCLEX – PN, Financial Literacy!🌟 Dive into a world of opportunities and empower yourself for success. Explore more at Serrari Ed and start your exciting journey today! ✨

photo source: Google

By: Montel Kamau

Serrari Financial Analyst

22^nd January, 2025