On Friday, European bonds experienced a significant rally, driving yields to their lowest point in nine months. Investors, seemingly unswayed by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) assurances that interest rate cuts were not on the horizon, instead focused on worrisome signs of a slowing economy.
The yields on 10-year German Bunds, considered the benchmark for the eurozone, dipped by 0.11 percentage points to 2.02 percent, marking the lowest level since March. This trend persisted despite ECB President Christine Lagarde’s statements on Thursday, where she emphasized that it was premature to discuss the timing of rate cuts and stressed that the bank had more work ahead in its battle against inflation. The market response extended a rally initiated by a more dovish stance from the US Federal Reserve earlier in the week.
The widespread gains witnessed across European markets coincided with fresh setbacks for the eurozone economy. A closely monitored survey revealed a decline in business activity in December, reaching the fastest pace since the initial impact of the pandemic in 2020.
The HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index dropped to a two-month low of 47, falling from 47.6 the previous month, below the 48 reading forecasted by economists in an earlier Reuters poll.
Notably, yields on 10-year Italian debt fell by 0.08 percentage points to 3.73 percent, and French government bond yields decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.56 percent.
These developments underscore the challenges faced by the ECB as global markets respond robustly to signals from the Fed, despite officials expressing concerns about persistent price pressures. Mike Riddell, a Bond Fund Portfolio Manager at Allianz Global Investors, observed, “Central banks everywhere are still really struggling with credibility,” noting that markets are increasingly skeptical of the ECB’s assurances regarding interest rates.
By: Delino Gayweh
Serrari Financial Analyst
17th December , 2023
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