In a concerning development for China’s economy, youth unemployment has reached an all-time high, adding further strain as the country’s post-pandemic recovery stumbles. Official figures reveal that the jobless rate for 16 to 24-year-olds in urban areas skyrocketed to 21.3% last month, sparking alarm among economists and policymakers.

As the world’s second-largest economy, China’s growth rate has been anything but impressive, with a mere 0.8% expansion reported in the three months leading up to June’s end. This sluggish pace has led to mounting expectations that authorities may soon unveil fresh measures to revitalize economic activity.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics attempted to maintain optimism, stating that the data indicated a “good momentum of recovery.” However, experts remain skeptical, pointing to the disappointing performance in retail sales and housing investments. Qian Wang, the Asia Pacific chief economist at investment firm Vanguard, voiced concern over the underlying growth momentum, which she believes to be still woefully weak.

One of the major contributors to the employment crisis is the decline in global demand for Chinese goods, adding further pressure to an already burdened economy. Moreover, China is grappling with ballooning local government debt and uncertainties in the housing market, further compounding the challenges of the recovery process.

The situation is being closely watched due to a record-breaking 11.58 million university graduates expected to enter the job market this year. Unfortunately, the opportunities for this wave of fresh talent have been limited by a mismatch between their skills and the available jobs.

Authorities have reluctantly admitted that youth unemployment is likely to continue its upward trajectory in the coming months, with a peak expected around August. Despite making up only 1.4% of the potential workforce in urban areas, unemployed young people wield considerable influence. With their voices resonating loudly through social media platforms, their expressions of discontent may trigger a broader loss of confidence in the economy.

China commenced publishing youth unemployment figures in 2018 but has yet to provide data on the employment status of young people in rural regions, leaving many questions unanswered about the overall extent of the issue.

In March, Chinese Premier Li Qiang acknowledged the challenges in achieving the 5% economic growth target for the year. While stating that it wouldn’t be an easy feat, he remained optimistic about the economy’s stabilization and gradual recovery.
Attempting to spur spending and investment, China’s central bank recently made its first interest rate cut in nearly a year. However, experts contend that more aggressive measures are still available to the government should the economic situation fail to improve.

The future remains uncertain for China’s youth as they face a daunting job market amidst an economically turbulent landscape. With the potential to influence public sentiment through their online presence, this demographic’s struggle could have far-reaching consequences for the country’s overall economic confidence. As the recovery falters, all eyes are on policymakers to implement effective measures and restore hope for the nation’s young workforce.

By: Montel Kamau
Serrari Financial Analyst
18th July, 2023