Central Bank of Kenya Delivers Ninth Consecutive Rate Cut to 9%, Lowest Level Since Early 2023, as Inflation Remains Anchored Below Midpoint Target

The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 9.0% on Tuesday, December 9, 2025, marking an unprecedented ninth consecutive rate reduction that brings borrowing costs to their lowest level since January 2023. The Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) decision extends the longest easing cycle in the region and reflects sustained confidence in Kenya’s inflation trajectory, strengthening external buffers, and the central bank’s determination to stimulate private sector credit growth without compromising price stability.

Governor Kamau Thugge emphasized that the rate reduction “will augment the previous policy actions aimed at stimulating lending by banks to the private sector and supporting economic activity,” adding that “the cut will also ensure inflation expectations stay firmly anchored, and the exchange rate remains stable.” The decision came as predicted by economists in a Bloomberg survey, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expecting Kenya’s central bank to extend its rate-cutting cycle as inflation remains benign.

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Sustained Inflation Moderation Provides Policy Space

Kenya’s annual inflation rate eased to 4.5% in November 2025 from 4.6% in October, marking the 29th consecutive month that the country has maintained price stability within the Central Bank’s target band of 2.5% to 7.5%. More significantly, inflation has remained below the 5% midpoint of the central bank’s target range since mid-2024, providing substantial room for monetary policy easing without risking an inflationary resurgence.

According to data released by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), the overall Consumer Price Index increased from 146.84 in October 2025 to 147.08 in November 2025, translating to a modest month-on-month inflation rate of just 0.2%. This relatively muted monthly increase reflects a delicate balance between declining prices in certain commodity categories and persistent upward pressure in others, particularly within the transport and food sectors.

Core inflation—the CBK’s preferred gauge of underlying price pressures excluding volatile food and energy costs—declined to 2.3% in November, down from 2.7% in October. This marked the fourth consecutive monthly decrease in core inflation, signaling subdued demand conditions in the economy. However, the persistent decline in core inflation also raises some concerns among economists about underlying economic weakness that monetary easing aims to address.

Food inflation stood at 7.7% in November, down from 8.0% in October, though it remained elevated and continued to strain household budgets, particularly for low-income families. The price dynamics within the food category were mixed, with fortified maize flour declining by 3.8% and sifted maize flour dropping 3.2%, while onions recorded the month’s steepest surge at 4.9% and sukuma wiki (kale) rose 2.7%.

The CBK projects that inflation will remain below the midpoint of the target range in the near term, supported by lower prices of processed food items, stable energy costs, and continued exchange rate stability. This benign inflation outlook has been instrumental in providing the central bank with confidence to maintain its aggressive easing stance.

Longest Easing Cycle in East Africa

The nine consecutive rate cuts delivered since mid-2024 mark the longest easing run in the region, distinguishing Kenya from its peers in East Africa and reflecting the central bank’s confidence in domestic macroeconomic stability. The benchmark rate has now fallen from a 12-year high of 13.0% in April 2024 to 9.0%, representing a cumulative reduction of 400 basis points over the course of just eight months.

This consistent easing path began when the MPC shifted away from the tightening stance it had maintained through 2023 and early 2024, when inflationary pressures from elevated food and fuel costs, combined with exchange rate volatility, necessitated restrictive monetary policy. The turning point came in mid-2024 when inflation began moderating consistently, the shilling stabilized, and external buffers strengthened through successful debt refinancing operations.

As Christopher Legilisho of Standard Bank noted, “Inflation expectations are anchored,” with softer increases in input and output prices even as material and tax costs continued to weigh on business margins. The anchoring of inflation expectations—the belief among businesses and consumers that price stability will persist—is crucial for the effectiveness of monetary policy easing, as it prevents preemptive price increases that could undermine disinflation efforts.

Kenya’s approach contrasts with the more cautious stance adopted by some of its regional neighbors. While Ghana and Zambia have joined the easing trend in 2025, delivering rate cuts as price pressures eased and economic conditions stabilized, Nigeria and Uganda have kept rates unchanged, citing foreign exchange volatility, liquidity constraints, and slower disinflation. Against this backdrop, Kenya stands out not for the size of individual policy moves but for the consistency and duration of its easing cycle.

Economic Growth Moderately Above Trend

Kenya’s economy expanded by 5.0% in the second quarter of 2025, up from 4.9% in the first quarter, with the CBK maintaining full-year growth projections at 5.2% for 2025 and 5.5% for 2026. These growth rates place Kenya among the better-performing economies in sub-Saharan Africa and represent a modest acceleration from the 4.7% growth recorded in 2024, which was the weakest result in seven years excluding the pandemic-induced contraction of 2020.

The growth acceleration has been broad-based across sectors. The agricultural sector, which accounts for a significant portion of Kenya’s GDP, grew by 4.4% in Q2 2025, supported by favorable weather conditions, higher production of coffee, vegetables, fruits, cut flowers, and milk. The sector’s performance is critical not only for GDP growth but also for rural livelihoods and food security, making it a key focus of monetary policy considerations.

Other sectors posting strong performance include transportation and storage, which grew 5.4% compared to 3.8% in Q1; finance and insurance, expanding 6.6% versus 5.1% in the previous quarter; accommodation and food services, which surged 7.8% from 4.1%; professional and administrative services, growing 8.5% from 4.6%; and information and communication, advancing 6.0% compared to 5.8% in Q1. This diversified growth pattern suggests that the economic expansion is not overly dependent on any single sector, reducing vulnerability to sector-specific shocks.

However, the 2024 GDP growth of 4.7% came in below the government’s Vision 2030 targets and reflected disruptions from political unrest and flood-related damage to infrastructure and agriculture that occurred during the year. The moderation in growth highlights ongoing structural challenges in the Kenyan economy, including infrastructure gaps, governance issues, and the need for continued reforms to unlock higher and more inclusive growth.

Credit Conditions Gradually Improving

One of the primary objectives of the CBK’s aggressive easing cycle has been to stimulate private sector lending, which had contracted significantly during the period of tight monetary policy. Private-sector credit growth improved to 6.3% in November, up from 5.0% in September and 3.3% in August, as lower lending rates gradually feed through the financial system.

This improvement in credit growth represents a substantial recovery from the contraction of -2.9% recorded in January 2025, when businesses and households were still reeling from the impact of elevated borrowing costs that prevailed through much of 2024. The modest but consistent acceleration in credit growth suggests that the monetary transmission mechanism is functioning, albeit with the typical lags between policy rate changes and lending behavior.

Average commercial bank lending rates have declined to 15.1% from 17.2% in November 2024, according to CBK data, representing a reduction of 210 basis points. This decline in actual lending rates charged to borrowers is critical for translating monetary policy easing into tangible economic stimulus, as businesses and consumers base their borrowing decisions on the rates they actually face rather than the policy rate itself.

The central bank has emphasized in recent MPC communications that lower policy rates should “support a moderation in lending rates” and ease funding conditions for firms and households. The Risk-Based Credit Pricing Model, expected to be implemented by March 2026, is anticipated to enhance monetary policy transmission and improve loan-pricing transparency, potentially accelerating credit growth and economic activity by making lending decisions more responsive to individual borrower risk profiles rather than blanket risk assessments.

However, credit growth remains constrained by several factors beyond interest rates. Non-performing loans (NPLs) stood at 16.5% in November, down slightly from 16.7% in October but still elevated by historical standards. The high NPL ratio reflects heightened risk aversion by banks, which has been reinforced by increased defaults in sectors including trade, personal and household loans, tourism, and construction. Banks remain cautious about expanding lending aggressively until they see clearer evidence of economic strengthening and reduced default risk.

External Position Significantly Strengthened

One of the most notable developments supporting the CBK’s confidence in continuing monetary easing has been the dramatic improvement in Kenya’s external position. Foreign-exchange reserves rose to $12.03 billion as of December 4, 2025, equivalent to 5.2 months of import cover—well above the central bank’s statutory minimum of four months and representing the strongest reserve position since the Bank began weekly disclosures.

This marks a significant improvement from the 4.7 months of import cover reported earlier in the year and represents the first time FX reserves have crossed the $12 billion mark, following a substantial build-up that began in October 2025. The strengthening of reserves has been driven by multiple factors, including proceeds from the government’s successful October 2025 Eurobond issuance, which raised $1.5 billion across seven- and twelve-year tranches.

Diaspora remittances have also played a crucial role, with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Diaspora Affairs reporting that remittances crossed the Ksh 1 trillion mark for 2025, underpinned by the government’s engagement with Kenyan communities abroad. Remittances provide a stable and predictable source of foreign exchange inflows, supporting both the reserve position and household incomes, thereby contributing to consumption-driven economic growth.

Additionally, export growth has contributed to reserve accumulation, with exports rising by 6.7% in the twelve months to October 2025, driven by stronger demand for horticulture, coffee, manufactured goods, and apparel. Services receipts also increased, further supporting the external position.

The robust reserve position provides the CBK with multiple benefits. It enhances the central bank’s ability to manage short-term currency volatility without aggressively drawing down holdings, supports confidence in the shilling’s stability, provides a cushion for upcoming external debt-service payments in early 2026, and signals to international investors and rating agencies that Kenya has adequate buffers to manage external shocks. S&P Global Ratings acknowledged this improved position by upgrading Kenya’s credit rating outlook, citing reduced liquidity risks.

Current Account Dynamics and Trade Performance

The current account deficit widened to 2.2% of GDP in the twelve months to October 2025, compared to 1.5% in the previous twelve-month period. The MPC explained that the increase came mainly from higher imports of intermediate and capital goods, reflecting ongoing investment activity and the economy’s recovery momentum.

Total goods imported between January and August 2025 stood at Ksh 2.06 trillion ($15.94 billion), up from Ksh 1.89 trillion ($14.61 billion) in the same period of 2024, representing a 9.2% increase. The rise was particularly pronounced in machinery and transport equipment, underscoring the capital-intensive nature of Kenya’s economic expansion and infrastructure development.

Despite the wider current account deficit, the CBK projects the balance of payments to remain in surplus, supported by strong services exports, tourism receipts, and sustained diaspora remittances. The central bank forecasts a current account deficit of 2.3% of GDP for both 2025 and 2026, suggesting that the widening observed in recent months represents a temporary adjustment rather than a structural deterioration.

The strength of Kenya’s external position despite the wider current account deficit reflects the offsetting impact of robust capital and financial account inflows, including foreign direct investment, portfolio inflows into government securities, and official development assistance from multilateral partners.

Banking Sector Stability Underpins Policy Confidence

The MPC reported that Kenya’s banking sector remains stable, with comfortable liquidity buffers and healthy capital levels. This stability is essential for the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission, as banks serve as the primary channel through which policy rate changes affect the broader economy.

Banking sector liquidity remains adequate, with commercial banks maintaining substantial deposits at the central bank and in the interbank market. Capital adequacy ratios across the sector remain well above regulatory minimums, providing banks with capacity to expand lending as credit demand recovers. The gradual improvement in the NPL ratio from its recent peak, even though it remains elevated, suggests that asset quality pressures may be stabilizing.

The CBK’s assessment of banking sector stability reflects several factors: prudent regulatory oversight and supervision by the central bank, banks’ conservative approach to risk management in recent years, the positive impact of previous monetary tightening in controlling inflation and reducing macroeconomic volatility, and improving economic conditions that support borrower repayment capacity.

The stability of the banking sector is particularly important given Kenya’s bank-dominated financial system, where commercial banks account for the vast majority of financial intermediation. A healthy banking sector is prerequisite for translating monetary easing into increased credit availability for businesses and households.

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Global Economic Context and External Risks

The MPC’s assessment of the global economic environment acknowledges both supportive factors and risks. Global growth has remained solid throughout 2025, estimated at 3.2%, driven by strong performance in major economies, particularly the United States, which has benefited from improved financial conditions and firm spending by consumers and businesses.

However, the committee expects global growth to slow slightly to 3.1% in 2026, primarily due to the impact of higher trade tariffs. The escalation of protectionist measures, particularly involving major economies, poses risks to global trade flows and could indirectly affect Kenya through reduced export demand and elevated commodity price volatility.

International oil prices have remained unpredictable, though they have generally moderated from earlier peaks. Global food inflation has eased, helped by falling prices of cereals, sugar, and edible oils, which benefits Kenya as a net food importer for certain commodities. Central banks in large economies are gradually loosening monetary policies, though they are proceeding cautiously given persistent inflation concerns in some jurisdictions.

The MPC identified several global risks that warrant monitoring: geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Europe, which could disrupt energy supplies and trade routes; weaker international demand, which could impact Kenya’s export performance; commodity price volatility, particularly for oil and agricultural products; and tightening financial conditions in advanced economies, which could reduce capital flows to emerging markets including Kenya.

These external risks necessitate continued vigilance by the CBK and underscore the importance of maintaining adequate buffers, including foreign exchange reserves, to cushion against potential shocks.

Business Confidence and Private Sector Activity

Private-sector surveys indicate that business confidence has reached a five-year high, suggesting that economic activity is beginning to respond to earlier policy adjustments. This improvement in sentiment is crucial, as business investment decisions depend not only on financing costs but also on expectations about future economic conditions and demand prospects.

However, the private sector still faces significant headwinds. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has shown mixed readings, reflecting ongoing challenges including elevated input costs, which constrain profit margins and limit firms’ ability to expand; weak customer spending in some sectors, particularly among lower-income households facing food inflation pressures; uncertainty about tax policy and regulatory changes, which affects investment planning; and infrastructure constraints, including unreliable electricity supply and inadequate transport networks.

The CBK’s continued monetary easing aims to provide a supportive financial environment that allows businesses to invest and expand despite these challenges. By reducing borrowing costs, the central bank seeks to tip the balance of firms’ investment decisions toward expansion rather than retrenchment.

Exchange Rate Stability as a Policy Anchor

A key consideration in the MPC’s decision-making has been the stability of the Kenyan shilling against major currencies, particularly the US dollar. Throughout 2025, the shilling has remained relatively stable, trading around Ksh 129.20 per dollar, supported by strong foreign exchange inflows and the CBK’s adequate reserve buffers.

This exchange rate stability is critical for several reasons. It anchors inflation expectations by ensuring that import prices remain predictable, reduces balance sheet risks for businesses and the government with foreign currency liabilities, supports investor confidence in Kenya as a destination for foreign investment, and enables the central bank to focus monetary policy on domestic objectives rather than defending the currency.

The MPC emphasized that the rate cut will ensure “the exchange rate remains stable,” reflecting the central bank’s confidence that continued monetary easing will not undermine currency stability given the strong external position. This confidence distinguishes Kenya from some regional peers where weak reserves and current account pressures constrain monetary policy options.

Structural Challenges and Long-Term Growth Prospects

While the monetary policy environment is supportive, Kenya faces significant structural challenges that monetary policy alone cannot address. According to Oxfam’s Kenya Status of Inequality Report released in November 2025, nearly half of Kenyans survive on less than Ksh 130 per day despite a decade of strong economic growth, highlighting that growth has not been sufficiently inclusive.

Food insecurity has surged by 17 million cases between 2014 and 2024 as inflation and soaring food prices hit low-income households hardest, with poor Nairobi families recording inflation rates 27% higher than wealthier households. This inequality in inflation impact means that headline inflation figures understate the cost-of-living pressures facing Kenya’s most vulnerable populations.

The World Bank notes that Kenya’s debt sustainability remains a pressing concern, with public debt climbing to 68.8% of GDP in FY2024/25, up from 67.5% in FY2023/24. The institution warns that Kenya remains at high risk of debt distress due to limited fiscal space and vulnerability to external shocks, particularly given rising interest costs and currency depreciation against non-dollar benchmarks.

Labor market outcomes remain weak, with employment growth declining from 4.4% in 2023 to 3.9% in 2024, while the share of formal jobs remained low at around 15%. The economy needs to generate approximately 680,000 jobs annually to absorb new labor market entrants, requiring sustained GDP growth of at least 5.8% per year and accelerated structural transformation.

Addressing these structural challenges requires coordinated policy efforts beyond monetary policy, including fiscal consolidation to reduce debt vulnerabilities, infrastructure investment to remove growth bottlenecks, governance reforms to improve the business environment and reduce corruption, human capital development through education and skills training, and structural transformation to shift employment toward higher-productivity sectors.

Looking Ahead: Future Policy Direction

The CBK’s statement indicated that the committee “will closely monitor the impact of this policy decision as well as developments in the global and domestic economy and stands ready to take further action.” This language suggests that while the central bank is confident in the current easing path, it remains data-dependent and prepared to adjust policy in either direction as circumstances warrant.

Goldman Sachs analysts expect the CBK to continue its cutting cycle, noting that “though growth has marginally accelerated from 4.9% in Q1 2025 to 5.0% year-on-year in Q2, below-target inflation and still restrictive monetary conditions suggest that the Bank will continue its cutting cycle.” With the current 9.0% policy rate still above estimated neutral rates—which neither stimulate nor restrain economic activity—there appears to be room for further gradual easing if inflation remains benign and economic conditions warrant.

However, several factors could constrain the pace or extent of further easing. A potential resurgence in global commodity prices, particularly oil, could reignite inflationary pressures. Renewed fiscal slippage or failure to meet consolidation targets could undermine confidence and put pressure on the exchange rate. Weaker-than-expected global growth could reduce remittances and export demand. Political instability or policy uncertainty could dampen business confidence despite supportive monetary conditions.

For 2026, the CBK projects growth to accelerate to 5.5%, supported by the cumulative effects of monetary easing, continued exchange rate stability, and recovery in credit growth. However, achieving this growth target will depend on successful navigation of both domestic and external challenges.

Implications for Businesses, Consumers, and Investors

The continued monetary easing has significant implications across the economy. For businesses, lower borrowing costs should gradually improve access to affordable credit for working capital and investment. Companies contemplating expansion projects may find financing more attractive, though they will need to weigh borrowing costs against demand prospects and other operating challenges.

For consumers, the rate cuts should eventually translate into lower rates on consumer loans, including mortgages, vehicle financing, and personal loans, though the transmission to retail lending rates typically lags policy changes. However, the benefits of lower rates must be weighed against elevated food prices and other cost-of-living pressures affecting household budgets.

For investors, Kenya’s monetary easing cycle and strengthened external position enhance its attractiveness relative to regional peers. The stable inflation environment, improving growth outlook, and supportive policy stance create a more predictable investment climate. However, investors must also consider ongoing debt sustainability concerns and structural challenges that could limit long-term growth potential.

For the banking sector, lower policy rates reduce net interest margins as lending rates decline, potentially pressuring profitability. However, increased loan volumes from accelerating credit growth could offset margin compression, and reduced NPLs as economic conditions improve would benefit asset quality.

Regional Comparison and Kenya’s Competitive Position

Kenya’s ninth consecutive rate cut positions it as the most aggressive easer among major East African economies. While this reflects favorable domestic conditions—particularly anchored inflation expectations and strengthened external buffers—it also provides Kenya with a competitive advantage in attracting investment capital seeking higher returns in an easing environment.

Compared to regional peers, Kenya offers investors a combination of relatively stable inflation, improving external position, consistent monetary policy direction, and moderate economic growth prospects that distinguish it from economies maintaining restrictive policies or experiencing greater macroeconomic volatility.

However, Kenya also faces regional competition, particularly from economies that have made greater progress on structural reforms or offer superior infrastructure. Sustaining Kenya’s competitive position will require not only supportive monetary policy but also continued progress on governance, infrastructure development, and creating an enabling environment for private sector-led growth.

Conclusion: Balancing Stimulus with Stability

The Central Bank of Kenya’s ninth consecutive rate cut to 9.0% represents a carefully calibrated effort to stimulate economic activity and support credit growth while maintaining the hard-won gains on inflation stabilization and exchange rate stability. The consistent easing path since mid-2024 demonstrates the central bank’s confidence that Kenya’s macroeconomic fundamentals—particularly anchored inflation expectations, strengthened foreign exchange reserves, and banking sector stability—can support lower interest rates without compromising price and currency stability.

The success of this monetary strategy will ultimately depend on multiple factors beyond the CBK’s control, including global economic conditions and commodity prices, the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation, continued progress on structural reforms, and the private sector’s response to improved financing conditions through increased investment and hiring.

For Kenya to translate monetary easing into sustained and inclusive economic growth, supportive monetary policy must be complemented by disciplined fiscal management, accelerated infrastructure investment, governance improvements, and policies that promote structural transformation and job creation. The next several months will be critical in determining whether Kenya’s aggressive monetary easing cycle achieves its objectives of supporting economic activity while maintaining macroeconomic stability, or whether external shocks or domestic challenges force a recalibration of the policy stance.

As the CBK continues to navigate between supporting growth and safeguarding stability, the durability of Kenya’s favorable inflation environment and strengthened external position will be tested. The central bank’s data-dependent approach and readiness to adjust policy as circumstances evolve suggest that while the current direction is clear, the ultimate destination of Kenya’s policy rate remains contingent on how domestic and global economic conditions unfold in the months ahead.

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By: Montel Kamau

Serrari Financial Analyst

10th December, 2025