Kenyan Bond Market Smashes Milestone as NSE Secondary Turnover Crosses KSh 2 Trillion

The Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) secondary bond market has set a new benchmark for Kenya’s financial sector, crossing the KSh 2 trillion turnover mark as of September 24, 2025. This achievement cements the NSE’s role as one of Africa’s fastest-growing fixed-income markets, signaling a deepening pool of investors and a maturing capital market structure.

According to market data, this is the first time in Kenya’s history that the bond market has reached such levels within a single calendar year. The turnover is already more than 30 percent above the full-year record of KSh 1.544 trillion posted in 2024, with three months still left before the year ends.

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The pace of growth has been extraordinary. In just two months since July 21, when the market turnover hit KSh 1.55 trillion, investors have added nearly KSh 500 billion in additional trading. On average, the market is now clocking around KSh 220 billion in monthly turnover, a figure that places the NSE firmly on track for KSh 2.6–2.7 trillion by year-end if current momentum continues.

The Bigger Picture: A Decade of Transformation

The remarkable surge in bond market activity reflects broader shifts in Kenya’s capital markets. Historically, annual turnover remained far below KSh 1 trillion prior to 2020. It wasn’t until 2021, when trading volumes surged to KSh 957 billion, that the market began its upward climb. By 2024, annual turnover reached KSh 1.544 trillion, setting the stage for the breakout seen in 2025.

The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has played a pivotal role in this transformation, both through its issuance calendar and secondary market reforms. The introduction of the Dhow CSD platform has also allowed retail investors easier access to government securities, a structural shift that has helped democratize participation in bond markets.

Weekly Momentum Confirms the Trend

The CBK’s weekly bulletins highlight just how strong momentum has become. In the week ending August 21, 2025, secondary market bond turnover doubled by 100.25 percent, reflecting surging institutional flows. A few weeks later, in the week ending September 18, turnover rose again by 36.7 percent, underscoring persistent appetite across both retail and institutional segments.

Such rapid growth suggests that the market is benefiting from both cyclical and structural forces. On one hand, government issuance and high coupon rates have encouraged active trading. On the other, investor confidence in Kenya’s credit outlook and liquidity conditions has strengthened secondary activity.

Key Drivers of the Surge

1. Oversubscriptions in Bond Auctions

Auction dynamics have been a key driver of liquidity. Recent tap sales and bond reopenings in August and September recorded subscription levels ranging between 200 percent and 400 percent. One striking example came in August when the government offered Sh50 billion worth of 15- and 19-year infrastructure bonds (IFBs). Investors responded with bids totaling Sh207.5 billion, marking an oversubscription rate of 414.9 percent.

This heavy demand in primary auctions spills directly into the secondary market as investors actively rebalance their holdings.

2. Expanding Retail Participation

Retail investors have become a cornerstone of the market’s expansion. SACCOs, self-help groups, and individuals now hold more than KSh 800 billion in government securities, more than double the figure recorded two years ago. The CBK’s Dhow CSD has been instrumental in this shift, allowing digital account opening and mobile access, which has lowered barriers to entry.

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3. High-Coupon Bonds Driving Premiums

Infrastructure bonds issued between 2023 and 2024 with coupon rates ranging from 14.4 percent to 18.5 percent are among the most heavily traded. In secondary markets, these instruments are fetching price premiums of up to 22 percent, as investors scramble for paper offering above-average yields. This trend has created vibrant turnover as bondholders exploit arbitrage opportunities between primary allocations and secondary premiums.

4. Short-Term Liquidity vs Long-Term Depth

While Treasury bills remain popular—particularly the oversubscribed 364-day T-bill—most secondary activity is clustered in long-tenor IFBs. This highlights a maturing investor base willing to lock into longer durations in exchange for higher coupons, but also seeking liquidity opportunities in the secondary space.

5. Credit Rating Upgrade

In August 2025, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Kenya’s sovereign rating from B- to B, citing improved liquidity management and fiscal consolidation measures. This vote of confidence has helped reinforce foreign and domestic investor appetite for government bonds. The government has also signaled intentions to pursue debt buybacks and longer-dated issuances to smooth maturities, with KSh 495 billion falling due in 2025 and another KSh 822 billion in 2026.

Risks and Challenges Ahead

While the bond market’s growth story is impressive, it also brings to the surface certain risks:

• Concentration Risk: Heavy trading is focused on a few high-coupon issues, leaving other bonds relatively illiquid.
  
• Volatility Exposure: Greater reliance on long-dated bonds exposes investors to sharper mark-to-market losses if interest rates swing.
  
• Fiscal Pressures: With gross financing requirements estimated at KSh 1.55 trillion for FY 2025/26, heavy borrowing could still crowd out private credit.
  
• External Vulnerabilities: A reversal of investor sentiment due to global shocks—such as U.S. Federal Reserve tightening—could reduce inflows and destabilize yields.
  

Market Outlook: What Comes Next?

Looking forward, the NSE bond market appears poised to sustain its momentum through the end of the year.

• Year-End Projection: At the current pace of KSh 220 billion in monthly turnover, total 2025 volumes could hit KSh 2.6–2.7 trillion.
  
• Debt Management Strategy: The government is weighing bond buybacks and longer-dated issuance to handle upcoming maturities. Such strategies, if executed successfully, would reduce refinancing risk while keeping investor confidence intact.
  
• Regional Leadership: With its liquidity and scale, Kenya is emerging as one of the top fixed-income hubs in Africa, rivaling South Africa and Nigeria in terms of depth and investor engagement.
  
• Retail Empowerment: Continued uptake of the Dhow CSD platform could further democratize access, especially if integrated with mobile money ecosystems like M-Pesa for seamless transactions.
  

Conclusion

The NSE’s crossing of the KSh 2 trillion milestone in bond turnover marks a pivotal moment for Kenya’s capital markets. It reflects not just cyclical drivers like high-coupon issuance, but also structural changes such as retail digital access, deeper institutional participation, and supportive policy.

As the government balances fiscal consolidation with heavy refinancing needs, and as investors navigate risks around duration and volatility, Kenya’s bond market will remain a vital barometer of the country’s financial health. If managed prudently, the secondary market could continue setting benchmarks for the region and reinforcing Nairobi’s role as an African financial hub.

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By: Montel Kamau

Serrari Financial Analyst

2nd October, 2025